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Gerd Leonhard
                              gerd@mediafuturist.com

                              www.mediafuturist.com


                         The Future of Media
                        Presentation @ Google London
                                 July 11 2008


Friday, July 11, 2008                                  1
Friday, July 11, 2008   2
We are only beginning to understand the
                 huge consequences
                          of the shift from
                        Disconnected to

                        Connected
Friday, July 11, 2008                             3
Friday, July 11, 2008   4
www.mediafuturist.com



                  From ‘The Network’ to

                NETWORKED
           Example: Music




Friday, July 11, 2008                                        5
A
                   Sharing and
                   Forwarding
                     Culture
Friday, July 11, 2008            6
CHANGE staring in the Face of the Content Industries
                                                                www.mediafuturist.com




                                                            www.mediafuturist.com

                                 Source of Cow Pic: flickr.com/photos/publicenergy
Friday, July 11, 2008                                                                   7
Now, People
                        will subscribe to People.
                            (And to Mass Media, too)




Friday, July 11, 2008                                  8
Friday, July 11, 2008   9
Friday, July 11, 2008   10
Friday, July 11, 2008   11
Web4.0: SmartNoise

                        Web3.0 Filter the Noise



                        Web2.0: Make Noise


                    Web1.0: Get (hear & see) ‘Noise’
Friday, July 11, 2008                                  12
All living on the Grid?
           Walter Mossberg on the Future of the Internet and
                            Rise of the Cell Phone:
        the PC has peaked, and the future of the
     internet belongs to pocket computers: The
    internet is a grid,quot; he remarked, quot;and we're
    all going to be living on it, and carrying it in
                         our pocket all day long.quot;

Friday, July 11, 2008                                          13
Friday, July 11, 2008   14
Friday, July 11, 2008   15
Content


Friday, July 11, 2008             16
A message via the
      St. Petersburg International
           Economic Forum:


                          Economic Egoism
                        is not working anymore



Friday, July 11, 2008                            17
Friday, July 11, 2008   18
www.mediafuturist.com




                        Trust is the key




Friday, July 11, 2008                                              19
Trends
           Multi-lateral Consideration vs ‘Egoism’
                        Sharing & Collaboration vs Walling
                           ‘Collaborative Competition’

                    Skillful Open - Closed Continuum

                           Transparent vs Secretive

                   Trust & Merit vs Control
Friday, July 11, 2008                                        20
www.mediafuturist.com




                                From somewhere on the Net:

                        “Why does Google insist that it’s goal is to
                            ‘organize the world’s information’?
       Because it’s figured out one of the deepest secrets hidden at
                          the heart of 21st century economics:
             Markets, networks, and communities can organize
   economic activities radically more efficiently than firms.”
Friday, July 11, 2008                                                                          21
The story of the New York Times:   www.mediafuturist.com




   Less Control... more Revenues?




Friday, July 11, 2008                                         22
www.mediafuturist.com




  And finally... the
    Britannica!


Friday, July 11, 2008                           23
The challenge for Content Owners:   www.mediafuturist.com




      Make $$ around the content




Friday, July 11, 2008                                          24
The End of Scarcity changes everything   www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                                            25
The End of Scarcity changes everything   www.mediafuturist.com




                   n

Friday, July 11, 2008                                            26
www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                           27
www.mediafuturist.com




  The End of Control as we knew it:


                 A huge paradigm shift: it’s not total control that wins in tomorrow’s

                 markets - it’s total empowerment.

                 It’s no longer about certified and central authority and the ‘select

                 few authorized professionals’ but also about the combined power of

                 masses of people.

                 It’s no longer just about actions guided by one’s own concerns and

                 immediate gains (economic egoism) but also about considering the

                 effect on the ecosystem - the network - as a whole


Friday, July 11, 2008                                                                                28
• Digital content is not the same as physical property
   • Ownership enforcement is less important than Usage
   • Listening / viewing now is copying
   • Searching is getting
   • Value can no longer be defined just by unit sales


Friday, July 11, 2008                                       29
Making money with Free Content?

   BPI chief executive Geoff Taylor told BBC
   News that the body was prepared to ... take
   ISPs to court. quot;There is a phenomenal amount
   of piracy out there and we believe that the
   idea that 95% of content on the net is free is
   not sustainable. We don't believe that
   society can allow the free consumption of
   content to persist,quot; he said.




Friday, July 11, 2008                               30
Old tollbooth logic                                                     www.mediafuturist.com




                        http://www.repmanblog.com/photos/uncategorized/48750_a.jpg




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                                                        31
New tollbooth logic   www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                 32
www.mediafuturist.com



                        But what IS Content?




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                  33
Redefining Content
                                                                        www.mediafuturist.com




                                                                                      All
                                  Click
                                                                                        IS
                                Streams
                                                        Context
                         Packages
                         & ‘Skins’
                                                                                        C
                                            Text
                                                               Rating
                                          Music &                                       O
                                           Audio
                                                                                        N
            Usage
                                          Images
            History
                                                                                        T
                                                                  Tags
                                           Video
                                                                                        E
                                            ...
                        Attention                             Edits &
                                                                                        N
                                                               Mixes
                         Kernels     Meta
                                                                                        T
                                                  Playlists
                                     Data
Friday, July 11, 2008                                                                           34
www.mediafuturist.com




                         Evaporating Distinctions:

                        Creator and Non-Creator

                        Professional and Amateur

                      Now, all of us are both -
              at different times & in different places


Friday, July 11, 2008                                                        35
www.mediafuturist.com




        Many Content Producers will expand
         into becoming Context Providers,
        Curators, Aggregators, Packagers...
 Curation: Exposing and Seeding, Testing,
Rating, Tagging, Contextualizing, Remixing,
        (Re-)Framing, Packaging...

Friday, July 11, 2008                                          36
The Internet is essentially
                        forcing us to reinvent
                        advertising


Friday, July 11, 2008                                 37
Advertising
                            is
                        Publishing
           Users Paying Attention In
         Return for Getting Free Content
Friday, July 11, 2008                      38
www.mediafuturist.com


     The key to the Future of Advertising:
     the right blend of Sharing vs Privacy
    Explicit Permission to temporarily and safely use

  Attention-, Sharing- & Clickstream-Data in return

                        for free Content (Media) and Services




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                               39
www.mediafuturist.com




                        Media & Content is
                        in the Network -
                           and so must
                          Advertising!
Friday, July 11, 2008                                            40
www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                           41
www.mediafuturist.com




        Brands are Broadcasters




Friday, July 11, 2008                               42
www.mediafuturist.com




   Context: the Future Role of Telcos and Operators:
           Content, Service and Data Pipes




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                43
www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                           44
www.mediafuturist.com




                        The complete
                        rethinking of
                   “Education”
                           is next
Friday, July 11, 2008                                           45
www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                           46
www.mediafuturist.com


                        Some Future Challenges
       Collision of old and new copyright paradigms
       Total re-write of the concept of ‘Education’
       Constant Privacy Paradoxes
       Mental Obesity
      Attention Scarcity
       Globalization of hereto protected spaces and people
       Reducing Economic Egoism



Friday, July 11, 2008                                                         47
Summary
                              Summary
                 Economic Egoism is so 1.0
                 Data is Content is King
                 Advertising is Publishing
                 Feels Like Free Content is here
                 Trust is the # 1 mission, across the board
                 Relevance over Quantity
                 The End of Control is shaping up everywhere



Friday, July 11, 2008                                          48
www.mediafuturist.com



                        Thanks for listening!
                           Gerd Leonhard
                         gerd@mediafuturist.com

                         www.mediafuturist.com




Friday, July 11, 2008                                                     49

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Words from the Media Futurist

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com The Future of Media Presentation @ Google London July 11 2008 Friday, July 11, 2008 1
  • 3. We are only beginning to understand the huge consequences of the shift from Disconnected to Connected Friday, July 11, 2008 3
  • 5. www.mediafuturist.com From ‘The Network’ to NETWORKED Example: Music Friday, July 11, 2008 5
  • 6. A Sharing and Forwarding Culture Friday, July 11, 2008 6
  • 7. CHANGE staring in the Face of the Content Industries www.mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com Source of Cow Pic: flickr.com/photos/publicenergy Friday, July 11, 2008 7
  • 8. Now, People will subscribe to People. (And to Mass Media, too) Friday, July 11, 2008 8
  • 10. Friday, July 11, 2008 10
  • 11. Friday, July 11, 2008 11
  • 12. Web4.0: SmartNoise Web3.0 Filter the Noise Web2.0: Make Noise Web1.0: Get (hear & see) ‘Noise’ Friday, July 11, 2008 12
  • 13. All living on the Grid? Walter Mossberg on the Future of the Internet and Rise of the Cell Phone: the PC has peaked, and the future of the internet belongs to pocket computers: The internet is a grid,quot; he remarked, quot;and we're all going to be living on it, and carrying it in our pocket all day long.quot; Friday, July 11, 2008 13
  • 14. Friday, July 11, 2008 14
  • 15. Friday, July 11, 2008 15
  • 17. A message via the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: Economic Egoism is not working anymore Friday, July 11, 2008 17
  • 18. Friday, July 11, 2008 18
  • 19. www.mediafuturist.com Trust is the key Friday, July 11, 2008 19
  • 20. Trends Multi-lateral Consideration vs ‘Egoism’ Sharing & Collaboration vs Walling ‘Collaborative Competition’ Skillful Open - Closed Continuum Transparent vs Secretive Trust & Merit vs Control Friday, July 11, 2008 20
  • 21. www.mediafuturist.com From somewhere on the Net: “Why does Google insist that it’s goal is to ‘organize the world’s information’? Because it’s figured out one of the deepest secrets hidden at the heart of 21st century economics: Markets, networks, and communities can organize economic activities radically more efficiently than firms.” Friday, July 11, 2008 21
  • 22. The story of the New York Times: www.mediafuturist.com Less Control... more Revenues? Friday, July 11, 2008 22
  • 23. www.mediafuturist.com And finally... the Britannica! Friday, July 11, 2008 23
  • 24. The challenge for Content Owners: www.mediafuturist.com Make $$ around the content Friday, July 11, 2008 24
  • 25. The End of Scarcity changes everything www.mediafuturist.com Friday, July 11, 2008 25
  • 26. The End of Scarcity changes everything www.mediafuturist.com n Friday, July 11, 2008 26
  • 28. www.mediafuturist.com The End of Control as we knew it: A huge paradigm shift: it’s not total control that wins in tomorrow’s markets - it’s total empowerment. It’s no longer about certified and central authority and the ‘select few authorized professionals’ but also about the combined power of masses of people. It’s no longer just about actions guided by one’s own concerns and immediate gains (economic egoism) but also about considering the effect on the ecosystem - the network - as a whole Friday, July 11, 2008 28
  • 29. • Digital content is not the same as physical property • Ownership enforcement is less important than Usage • Listening / viewing now is copying • Searching is getting • Value can no longer be defined just by unit sales Friday, July 11, 2008 29
  • 30. Making money with Free Content? BPI chief executive Geoff Taylor told BBC News that the body was prepared to ... take ISPs to court. quot;There is a phenomenal amount of piracy out there and we believe that the idea that 95% of content on the net is free is not sustainable. We don't believe that society can allow the free consumption of content to persist,quot; he said. Friday, July 11, 2008 30
  • 31. Old tollbooth logic www.mediafuturist.com http://www.repmanblog.com/photos/uncategorized/48750_a.jpg Friday, July 11, 2008 31
  • 32. New tollbooth logic www.mediafuturist.com Friday, July 11, 2008 32
  • 33. www.mediafuturist.com But what IS Content? Friday, July 11, 2008 33
  • 34. Redefining Content www.mediafuturist.com All Click IS Streams Context Packages & ‘Skins’ C Text Rating Music & O Audio N Usage Images History T Tags Video E ... Attention Edits & N Mixes Kernels Meta T Playlists Data Friday, July 11, 2008 34
  • 35. www.mediafuturist.com Evaporating Distinctions: Creator and Non-Creator Professional and Amateur Now, all of us are both - at different times & in different places Friday, July 11, 2008 35
  • 36. www.mediafuturist.com Many Content Producers will expand into becoming Context Providers, Curators, Aggregators, Packagers... Curation: Exposing and Seeding, Testing, Rating, Tagging, Contextualizing, Remixing, (Re-)Framing, Packaging... Friday, July 11, 2008 36
  • 37. The Internet is essentially forcing us to reinvent advertising Friday, July 11, 2008 37
  • 38. Advertising is Publishing Users Paying Attention In Return for Getting Free Content Friday, July 11, 2008 38
  • 39. www.mediafuturist.com The key to the Future of Advertising: the right blend of Sharing vs Privacy Explicit Permission to temporarily and safely use Attention-, Sharing- & Clickstream-Data in return for free Content (Media) and Services Friday, July 11, 2008 39
  • 40. www.mediafuturist.com Media & Content is in the Network - and so must Advertising! Friday, July 11, 2008 40
  • 42. www.mediafuturist.com Brands are Broadcasters Friday, July 11, 2008 42
  • 43. www.mediafuturist.com Context: the Future Role of Telcos and Operators: Content, Service and Data Pipes Friday, July 11, 2008 43
  • 45. www.mediafuturist.com The complete rethinking of “Education” is next Friday, July 11, 2008 45
  • 47. www.mediafuturist.com Some Future Challenges Collision of old and new copyright paradigms Total re-write of the concept of ‘Education’ Constant Privacy Paradoxes Mental Obesity Attention Scarcity Globalization of hereto protected spaces and people Reducing Economic Egoism Friday, July 11, 2008 47
  • 48. Summary Summary Economic Egoism is so 1.0 Data is Content is King Advertising is Publishing Feels Like Free Content is here Trust is the # 1 mission, across the board Relevance over Quantity The End of Control is shaping up everywhere Friday, July 11, 2008 48
  • 49. www.mediafuturist.com Thanks for listening! Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com Friday, July 11, 2008 49