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Future of Urban Mobility

Director of Innovation, Professor/Researcher, Entrepreneurship, Sustainability & Smart Cities à Universidad del Desarrollo
18 Oct 2018
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
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Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
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Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
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Future of Urban Mobility
Future of Urban Mobility
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Future of Urban Mobility

  1. The Future of Urban and Regional Mobility
  2. 1. Introduction The American dream throughout the 20th century was commonly depicted as moving out to the suburbs with a white picket fence and a car (usually a Ford) in the garage. Over the decades, this dream expanded to a larger home and a three-car garage to house cars for both parents and one for children of driving age. The dream was birthed in the US, and created a contagion in cities and countries around the globe. As our global population grew and our cities sprawled, the original American dream increasingly started looking more and more like a nightmare. Jane Jacobs of course poignantly and convincingly demonstrated how America’s fascination with the personal automobile contributed to the decay of culture and quality of life in cities. Municipal, regional and national governments have spent trillions of dollars to build and maintain highway infrastructure (and major utility connections) to the growing suburban masses. Traffic congestion costs more than $300 billion (USD) to the US economy annually1 and reduces quality of life. Emissions from transportation in the EU represent 25% of total GHG emissions in the region2. Furthermore, the car-dependent suburban life has exacerbated obesity while air contamination (much of which comes from transportation) leads to more than 5 million deaths worldwide on an annual basis3. Urbanists, transportation professionals and the entire automobile industry have converged on these challenges and begun exploring how new technologies and new business models can adapt to the changing mobility requirements of the 21st century. 1. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/02/traffics-mind-boggling-economic-toll/552488/ 2. https://www.vcd.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Redaktion/Themen/Auto_Umwelt/CO2- Grenzwert/2018_04_CO2_emissions_cars_The_facts_report_final.pdf 3. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35568249
  3. At many mobility conferences I attend, autonomous vehicles and urban air mobility are all the rage. Yet, some researchers have recently challenged these assumptions demonstrating that the proliferation of autonomous vehicles could actually result in increased congestion in our cities. Yet, if implemented correctly, autonomous vehicles pose the potential to increase the efficiency of passenger vehicle movement, especially if we focus more on shared autonomous vehicles and autonomous public transit options, perhaps those that can enable liquid routing based on real-time demand. 1.1 Autonomous Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility: Are they part of a more sustainable future mobility scenario? Urban air mobility, such as drones for delivery and helicopter taxis, may sound like science fiction but are actually already being tested in cities like Dubai today. We at iomob are big advocates for innovation and technology (note: we were founded by three PhDs, one in entrepreneurship and two others in Computer Science), we are not enamored with the prospects of urban air mobility to bypass the congested contaminating streets we travel on today. On the contrary, we are very concerned about this development. While there are legitimate use cases for urban air mobility (e.g. delivering aid to people who have been cut-off from accessing essential services after a hurricane or earthquake), as a general rule our view is that we as a global community, have collectively been unable to fix our ground level problems with better urban planning and infrastructure, better regulatory practices to encourage more sustainable mobility patterns (pedestrian and cycling infrastructure, increased spending on public transit, etc.) and a faster evolution of our culture from car dependence towards a more wholistic approach to mobility. It is precisely our failure to fix ground-level infrastructure and behavior that has given rise to the growing demand for urban air mobility. Unfortunately, this pattern of exploiting local resources and moving on to exploit others has been a feature of the human species.
  4. Instead of looking to contaminate and pollute our urban skies, at iomob we believe the solution lies in fixing our ground-level problems, not abandoning the in ways that require those with less resources continue to suffer from the congestion and pollution while those with enough resources just pay to have goods flown by drone to their house and hire flying air taxis. 1.1 Autonomous Vehicles and Urban Air Mobility: Are they part of a more sustainable future mobility scenario? In conclusion, emerging technological innovations such as autonomous vehicles and urban air mobility, may in some cases solve real use cases, for the most part, we believe the future of urban mobility will not be driven by these technologies. Instead, we believe the future of urban and regional mobility, will be multi-modal, customized and digitized in ways that enable open collaboration and competition amongst all legal and shared mobility service providers (MSPs). 2.Current Mobility Marketplace In recent years we have witnessed a massive explosion of new private and public shared mobility services. Bikesharing, carsharing, carpooling, skooter sharing, ridehailing, electric charger sharing, parking sharing and more have been introduced in our cities in just the past decade. In Barcelona alone, there are more than 50 known shared mobility operators. While increasing the diversity of mobility services available to residents and visitors is a good thing, not all mobility services have positive impacts on the mobility experience or the ecological impacts of the mobility ecosystem.
  5. 2.1 Shared Mobility Business Models for Sustainability In 2014, Boyd Cohen and Jan Kietzmann published a peer-reviewed article examining how 12 different shared mobility business models differentially impact urban sustainability and citizen value4. Leveraging four criteria from the concept of business models for sustainability (BMfS), they concluded that the most optimal business models in shared mobility to achieve sustainability outcomes are those that blend public and private approaches. In recent years we have certainly witnessed major concerns regarding technology-driven, venture capital-backed mobility companies who have entered cities with more monopolistic as opposed to cooperative based approaches to shared mobility. 4. Cohen, Boyd, and Jan Kietzmann. "Ride on! Mobility business models for the sharing economy." Organization & Environment27.3 (2014): 279-296.
  6. 2.2 Unregulated Private Mobility Service Providers At iomob, we believe that cities need to embrace experimentation and to liberally apply the concept of sandboxes where such experimentations can take place while regulators can catch up to the pace of innovation and to understand on a small scale the implications of new mobility solutions. Yet, at some point, regulation is needed to ensure private MSPs operate in ways (and their customers behave correctly too). The rapid escalation of dockless bikesharing services is a great example. The potential for dockless bikesharing to be a vibrant part of the mobility mix is strong. Instead of being reliant on fixed stations that are costly and never ubiquitous enough for the demanding requirements of mobility users, dockless bikesharing allows point-to-point mobility. The problem is, left unregulated, dockless bikesharing systems in cities can quickly lead to a significant cluttering of public space. 2.3 Fragmented Web 2.0 Mobility Marketplace and the rise of MaaS In recent years the boom in mobility options for citizens has been unprecedented. The combination of insufficient supply of public transit, the rapid evolution of ICT and the growing ubiquity of smart phones have supported the introduction of a host of new mobility services. Most cities today contain dozens of shared mobility startups all competing with each other and with other more established players (public transit, traditional taxi services, etc). Yet, the increase of supply of services has not achieved the efficiencies and improvement that could be possible. Each of the existing services operate in their own silos, with their own tech stack, their own app and their own closed user bases (network effects). The inefficiency of this fragmented marketplace, and the inability to enable multimodal routing of different services to achieve increased efficiency has given rise to a revolutionary new mobility business model, Mobility as a Service.
  7. Just as in numerous other industries such as software as a service (SaaS) or even Flooring as a Service (FaaS), the concept of MaaS is to shift mobility user behavior from owning all of the mobility devices they thought they needed (e.g. cars, scooters, bikes), and instead enable the users access to a suite of mobility services on demand. At iomob, we believe the current MaaS market has evolved over three steps. Step 1 was Single provider MaaS. Single provider MaaS occurs when one company offers access to different mobility devices via a service offering. Toyota, for example, offering a Car as a Service (CaaS) model, whereby a customer could have access to different vehicles in their fleet for different needs. Small urban vehicle for the Monday to Friday commute, while getting a weekend SUV for taking the family to the mountains. Rather than buying and maintaining multiple vehicles, a CaaS customer can pay a monthly service fee to have access to cars on demand. Step 2 is single provider, multimodal MaaS. This is most commonly exemplified by public transit authorities who offer all their different modes of services (bus, metro, commuter trains, public bikeshare) in either a pay as a you go model (by journey and intermodal) or a monthly package where subscribers can have unlimited (or in some cases there are light, medium and heavy use packages) access to all the modes of public transit with one fare card. We area also starting to see some private ridehailing companies getting into a Step 2 version of MaaS whereby they acquire or invest in alternative modes of shared mobility such as bikesharing or electric scooter sharing, and offer a MaaS type intermodal service to their customers. Some of these initiatives are now starting to introduce APIs to public transit data as well. 2.3 Fragmented Web 2.0 Mobility Marketplace and the rise of MaaS
  8. This leads to Step 3 MaaS which today is still seen by many as the vanguard. Step 3 MaaS is multi-provider and multimodal. In Step 3 MaaS, pioneered by Whim Global of Helsinki, a range of mobility services are packaged in for subscribers who can also pay as the go or for a range of monthly package options depending on projected use. The Step 3 MaaS has introduced a transformative solution to the fragmentation problem still plaguing most urban mobility ecosystems. By packaging in taxi/ridehailing, bikesharing, carsharing and scooter sharing with public transit, MaaS mobility aggregators are enabling a level of efficiency not previously possible. Subscribers to Step 3 MaaS can receive more seamless access to a range of public and private mobility services and even get multimodal routing options. As Susan Shaheen, a Professor at UC Berkeley and arguably the world’s most renowned expert on shared mobility, shared with iomob in her capacity as advisor, is that for MaaS to work, it must enable multimodal routing, booking and integrated payment for it to serve as a seamless end user experience and to disrupt the current fragmented marketplace. While we at iomob embrace the innovators and the innovation that has come from the Step 3 MaaS aggregators, we believe there is another level of advancement in MaaS for it to truly serve the masses around the globe in a seamless and interconnected way. And we are not alone. 2.3 Fragmented Web 2.0 Mobility Marketplace and the rise of MaaS Seleta Reynolds, Los Angeles Department of Transportation When you’re talking about a mobility operating system, I believe strongly that we need a Linux version. It must be open. It must be done by cities and for cities in order for it to be broadly adopted and used.
  9. 4. The Future Of Urban & Regional Mobility Step 4 moves from MaaS to what we refer to as the Internet of Mobility (IoM). While step 3 MaaS has introduced some significant improvements in urban mobility ecosystems, it also has many significant shortcomings, which could be overcome through the creation of an open-source, decentralized mobility aggregation marketplace (IoM).
  10. 4.1 Step 3 MaaS compared to the Internet of Mobility Closed software versus open software Most Step 3 MaaS aggregators are either developing their own software and end-user application or licensing software from 3rd parties. While this allows the MaaS aggregator more control, it erects a barrier to global innovation and interoperability of MaaS systems and for end users. Today with a Step 3 MaaS, the only way a subscriber in one city may be able to gain some benefits when they travel to other cities with Step 3 MaaS aggregators is if the city they are traveling to happens to have a MaaS service offered by the same aggregator in both cities.
  11. 4.1 Step 3 MaaS compared to the Internet of Mobility Closed networks versus open networks Most current MaaS operators negotiate discounts and partnerships with one (often the largest) operator of each mode of transit in that city. The largest taxi service, the largest bikeshare service, the largest scooter sharing and carsharing services, and pair them with public transit. While this is a significant improvement over the fragmented marketplace of today it is seriously deficient. This is because, how likely is it that the largest provider is always the best provider for that end user in that moment in that location? Also this closed model kills innovation by benefitting the largest operators and erecting barriers (even worse than in the fragmented model) to adoption of growth of new mobility startups. A fully open, Internet of Mobility could even allow a startup or even single independent licensed provider to be discoverable by any end user when their vehicles are the best fit for that user based on their preferences, location and destination. Finally, open models can support an open network effect, whereby all MSPs, public or private, large or small, can compete and collaborate on a more level playing field. If all providers can have access to all end users in the system when their particularly service is the best for that user, the system as a whole will have increased efficiency. This does not have to lead to detrimental effects for larger players. Larger MSPs still have more frequency and availability of service and in this open model, will still be more likely than small players to be the best fit for a particular user. Furthermore, the open model allows large players to help optimize fleet utilization by tapping into the unmet demand from smaller providers who agree, through smart contracts, to offload demand from their own users for a fee (see below). Finally, open models can support an open network effect, whereby all MSPs, public or private, large or small, can compete and collaborate on a more level playing field. If all providers can have access to all end users in the system when their particularly service is the best for that user, the system as a whole will have increased efficiency. This does not have to lead to detrimental effects for larger players. Larger MSPs still have more frequency and availability of service and in this open model, will still be more likely than small players to be the best fit for a particular user. Furthermore, the open model allows large players to help optimize fleet utilization by tapping into the unmet demand from smaller providers who agree, through smart contracts, to offload demand from their own users for a fee (see below).
  12. 4.1 Step 3 MaaS compared to the Internet of Mobility Trust and Negotiations versus an open “trustless” network In Step 3 MaaS, the aggregators enter into contractual arrangements with each provider, often promising them exclusivity on their mode of transit (i.e. you will be the only ridehailing service offer3ed to our users). This requires building trust and relationships with a range of providers to enable the aggregator to create a complete package of multimodal services. In an Internet of Mobility model, blockchain-based smart contracts allow a trustless network to emerge. Instead of a MaaS aggregator having to negotiate contracts with each provider, including revenue sharing arrangements amongst the different providers, MSPs in iomob will be able to establish their terms and compete on an open market through a digital agreement that sets out the providers terms under different conditions. For example, a scooter sharing startup wishes to launch in a new city with 2,000 vehicles, and realizes that there will be many instances when their new users may not find an available scooter near them. The startup, let’s call them iScoot could establish a smart contract that states that in the event that one of iScoot’s users opens the app and is unable to locate an iScoot within a 6 minute walk of their current location (or whatever the time iScoot believes is the trigger for abandoning their service), the user could have other mobility options exposed to them, even through their own iScoot app. The smart contract would dictate the terms iScoot is prepared to apply for offloading demand, that is to say, for allowing another MSP to offer an alternative service to the iScoot user. Why would iScoot do this? For 2 reasons. Firstly, because iScoot customers will cease to use the app permanently if they find on numerous occasions that it can not satisfy their need. iScoot risks losing a customer for life if they do not enable offloading demand. Secondly, because iScoot can monetize a customer it can´t service. For example it could state in a smart contract that any provider who discovers a user through their app, and executes a service for that user, owes iScoot 50 cents.
  13. 4.1 Step 3 MaaS compared to the Internet of Mobility In Step 3 MaaS, the aggregator is not always required to share the data on mobility usage and patterns in the system with public transit operators, private operators and third parties who would like access to that data (research institutes, universities, think tanks, citizens, etc). Even if the MaaS aggregator is legally required or voluntarily decides to make some data open they can selectively choose in many cases what data is shared with whom. And furthermore the data from the MaaS aggregator, even if offered in its entirety, does not give a complete picture of mobility patterns, problems, and usage in an urban area because the aggregator only has data for the providers it has negotiated relationships with. In iomob, all legal providers who wish to be connected will be connected and over time, this could yield a complete picture of the mobility ecosystem. This data must made available to all stakeholders who wish to access it (either for a fee or possibly as an open data commons). Closed data on a closed system versus open data from an open system
  14. Features of the open, shared mobility future There are several fundamental features we at iomob believe are required to enable the mobility future public transit authorities, private MSPs and citizens seek. 01 Open data commons/marketplace-As stated above, key stakeholders must have access to aggregate, but anonymized, data about mobility patterns in cities. This data will be incredibly valuable for identifying gaps in mobility services, opportunities for new startups or the expansion of public transit or established private MSPs and much more. 02 API standards for open mobility-For the internet of mobility to function, public and private MSPs must support open APIs so that third party aggregators can have easy access to include their services in open models. This of course also contributes to better data as more MSPs are connected. Creating and committing to an open API standard increases the likelihood of local, regional and global adoption. 03 Regulatory requirement for MSPs to have open APIs. At iomob we believe municipal and national authorities may need to compel private MSPs to open their APIs in order to have a license to operate in their jurisdiction. Finland was one of the first countries to develop regulation towards this end. 04 Regional, national and global interoperability and interconnectivity. In the future, we envision any mobility user who has signed up to any app that is connected to the open iomob protocol will be able to port their identiy, payment and mobility preferences to any city they travel to that is also operating on the protocol. Furthermore, this open IoM model more easily accommodates regional and intercity travel solutions into different types of MaaS solutions. Traditional Step 3 MaaS aggregators have little incentive to incorporate intercity modes like carpooling, trains and intercity buses as the demand for those is too diverse to manage in a monthly service package model.
  15. 05 IoT Infrastructure. Support for the Internet of Things (IoT) will of course improve an open mobility ecosystem to flourish better as the precise real time location of vehicles and mobility users enhances efficiency. Also, IoT solutions can enhance our understanding of real time disruptions or even help predict or identify trends in mobility service disruption or demand throughout different temporal moments. We also believe IoT and related technologies may enable the emergence of new services, such as liquid bus routes, driven by transparent access to supply and demand in real time. 06 Physical infrastructure. While this topic has less to do directly with the internet of mobility we believe the future of mobility in cities will require a rethink of the infrastructure offered to citizens and MSPs. For example the rapid introduction of new motorized personal mobility devices like electric scooters and bikes needs to be considered. Should these devices not only be regulated to a certain number in a city as many are doing, but perhaps our dedicated non-vehicle infrastructure needs to expand at the expense of dedicated vehicle infrastructure. We envision there may be need in cities to have dedicated pedestrian, dedicated non-motorized lanes for things like bikes and skateboards, and dedicated lanes for personal motorized devices. Otherwise we will see not only increasing conflicts between different modes but also accidents between users of these different modes. Similarly, we believe cities may need to reexamine not just licensing of number of vehicles per mode or provider but also explore new parking models. For instance, could cities allocate space for a diverse range of shared mobility services from carsharing to electric bike and scooter sharing, and strategically locate these facilities near main public transit nodes? Shared infrastructure for shared mobility in this way could increase the intermodal connectivity and use of public and private mobility services and also create more order in cities where services like dockless bikes pose a threat to pedestrian comfort and visual challenges. 07 Accessbiility. Current Step 3 MaaS operators have paid insufficient attention to accessibility of services for the disabled. At iomob we believe this can and must be rectified through improved APIs with additional layers of data for different impairments and possibly even new dedicated MSPs (some already exist) just focused on this segment of the population. A startup in the UK, CityMaaS, is planning to be one of the first MaaS aggregators to connect to the iomob protocol specifically to offer a highly innovative MaaS solution for the disabled called CityMaaS Assist.
  16. This leads to a final note on compatibility of Step 3 MaaS in iomob. Iomob is building the infrastructure for an open, decentralized mobility aggregation platform. This means that any legal mobility company or aggregator will be able to build solutions on top of iomob. Iomob by itself is not an MSP or a MaaS aggregator. Instead iomob is building the plumbing for a new Web 3.0 urban and regional mobility ecosystem to flourish. Iomob expects operators, even established ones like Whim, to explore plugging into iomob while new operators focused on more open and decentralized ones, such as CityMaaS, and Senta Mobility (a joint venture between Centrality and iomob) will also introduce aggregation models leveraging the iomob protocol. The past decade has seen significant innovations in the mobility marketplace including new open and integrated ticketing in public transit, autonomous vehicles, the introduction of massive global ridehailing services and the emergence of thousands of shared mobility services and startups. MaaS solutions have allowes us to reimagine a new mobility landscape where users can have seamless access to intermodal routing, booking and payment of public and private mobility solutions. The next wave of mobility innovation will be open and decentralized. By Boyd Cohen, Ph.D. Dean of Research, EADA Business School and CEO, iomob
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