1. Concentrating Photovoltaics 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets May 26, 2011 Speaker: Brett Prior GTM Research Moderator: Scott Clavenna GTM Research
2. Webinar Logistics Please enter your questions at any point during the presentation Make sure your volume is turned up Slides are available for download. You can also enlarge through buttons below Webinar will be archived and available within 24 hours, you will receive an email when it is available
3. http://www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-photovoltaics-2011 Report highlights Over 260 pages Over 90 graphs, tables, and illustrations Global demand forecasts by country Analysis of key metrics affecting levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Capacity Factor Land Usage Module cost per watt Tracking system cost Balance of system costs O&M costs In-depth profiles for 70 leading CPV system manufacturers and cell suppliers List of all 170+ CPV projects in operation or under development worldwide
13. The 689 MW of CPV in the pipeline sounds impressiveBut compared with the 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating PV – it seems tiny
14. Global CPV Ecosystem Total worldwide CPV projects in operation/under construction/development (w/ PPA/FIT): 483 MW-ac Size of company logo proportional to total MW in operation/development 306 127 37 13 All Other System Manufacturers
15. US: 456 MW 32 MW 1% 7% Spain: 18 MW 115 MW 25% 306 MW 12 MW 69% 67% CPV Plants In Operation / Under Construction / Development (with PPA/FIT) (483 MW-ac Total) Greece: 2 MW Portugal: 5 MW Australia: 3 MW Other System Manufacturers Map created by Brett Prior, GTM Research. Last updated 5/11. Please send updates to prior@gtmresearch.com
17. In order for US utilities in the Southwest to meet their RPS targets, over 45,000 MW of new solar plants (or other renewables) will be required by 2020
18. The US Market for utility-scale solar looks promising. But CPV companies don’t develop their own projects. So, who are the key “gate-keepers” that need to be won over for CPV to succeed?
19. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by technology
20. The US Utility Solar Market can be broken down by developer type Vertically Integrated Manufacturers (i.e. First Solar, BrightSource) seem unlikely to select CPV systems for their projects
21. For CPV to succeed globally, it first needs to penetrate the US Market For CPV manufacturers, the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are akin to Normandy on D-Day Full report contains Top 10 IPPs
22. The second target customer segment is the Pure-Play Solar Developers Although they are generally cash-poor, and won’t be able to move forward unless the CPV manufacturers bring financing along Full report contains Top 10 Pure-Play Solar Developers
23. How does CPV compare on key metrics? or What could possibly compel developers to select CPV over other solar options?
25. Key Metric #1: LCOE Module efficiency is a key driver of balance of systems costs, and therefore a key driver of LCOE CPV has real room for improvement. Flat plate PV – looking a bit flat.
26. Key Metric #1: LCOE While installed cost should never be used to compare options, it is the primary driver of LCOE Report also contains cost per watt forecast by technology through 2015
