2. Why Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Smartphones are the future Approaching 1 billion total smartphones Smartphone sales to surpass PCs by 2012 (probably sooner) Potential market: are 5 billion mobile phones in use; *all* of these could transition to smartphones Microsoft is (still) not part of this future Kin DOA 1.5 million Windows Phones 7s “shipped” not sold Windows Mobile couldn’t even beat Blackberry, and you had *every* advantage Ten years in and still no “tablet” for sale 1 year behind Apple and Google/Android – and they have just as much money to spend
3. Assumptions Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com There will be no return to a single dominant platform Microsoft has the brainpower and the resources to compete in thismarket Hubris, market pressure and opportunity will prevent Microsoft from staying outside the “smartphone wars” regardless of opportunity As constructed, Microsoft’s current organization demands scale and market dominance (at least, number 1 or number 2 in the market) to succeed Tablets are no salvation. Tablets work better with *smartphones* than “PCs” Mobile Always-on Touch-based Highly-intuitive Long battery life ZERO in common with Office/Windows PC moneymakers
5. 1. Lawyers Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Unleash an army of lawyers Sue Global for its *monopoly position* in every country possible Sue Google for doctoring search results to favor Google-owned properties Sue Google to prevent them from buying up any more assets (e.g. travel sites) Seek to have Google declared a ‘utility’ Lobby Congress to stop the FCC’s new non net neutrality proposal Google achieved a dominant position in a ‘wireline’ web in part through net neutrality Having achieved this lofty position, they have now lobbied to have a non neutral wireless web – and prevailed. For now. Stop them. Sue Google over Android IP Create fear, uncertainty and doubt in all who consider using Android The Google – Android model is built on spreading a free operating system. Sue Google and win and Google may have to begin charging a license fee (or eating those costs) Sue *every* maker of Android devices And require they build Windows Phone as part of any settlement
6. 2. Gaming Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Apple’s iOS is already the world’s largest gaming platform. Every child with a iPod Touch can download and play 100,000 games right this moment. Microsoft has no answer to this. A child can be playing iPod games for 10 years before their parents get them an “Xbox”. Utilize Xbox much more aggressively Free Windows Phone with every Xbox 360 More games with tight Xbox console – Windows Phone integration Utilize developers to create Windows Phone ‘always on’ and ‘anywhere’ games that instantly port to ‘immersive’ Xbox play Turn Windows Phone into a Kinect controller
7. 3. Social Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Social is a core weakness of Microsoft’s two fiercest smartphone competitors Apple Google Both are trying to fix this (Ping, Buzz, Google Me, etc.) Give Facebook complete access to control the Windows Phone UI and experience Partner with Facebook on a very inexpensive mobile ‘smartphone’ device that combines basic Word/Excel/Exchange features with Facebook, phone and text; nothing more. Take this to the 2 billion people in the world who want Office, Facebook and a smartphone and can pay no more than $50. Buy Groupon They are building out a massive local search + business listings + social buying service that is still a year away from being optimized for mobile. This will help Windows Phone, Bing, Live
8. 4. Content Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Tens years and countless dollars later and it is Apple that sells the vast majority sells of movies and music online (and now also games, apps, books). Microsoft still has no answer to this. Similarly, the world’s largest retailer, WalMart, and world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, are only just on the iTunes periphery. Partner with Amazon! Create a global and regional online market for: Games Music Apps Books Videos Amazon has the retail knowledge, payments platform – but need device access and certainty. Amazon plus Windows Phone could prove an effective counter to iOS and iTunes, though not likely.
9. 5. Spend Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Smartphones are the future. Spend every dollar it takes to be the smartphone wars winner -- or take all your cash now and hand it back to the investors. If you choose the spend road, use it to buy share, buy technology, limit Apple and kill off the Google advertising cash cow. Spend *billions* to put Bing on every carrier and on every Android device!And iPhone. And Palm. Forget Buy 1 Get 1 offers. Instead, seek out no money or marketing dollar commitments from carriers. More importantly, no licensing fees to handset makers. Or, charge them only enough to cover legal IP indemnification costs, if that. Windows (for PC) and Office can sustain you. By any means necessary, Google must be destroyed or Microsoft cannot win the smartphone wars! Google’s advertising dollars, Android platform and services becoming optimized for mobile(gmail, maps, calendar, apps, voice search, recommendations) cannot be overtaken unless Microsoft kill off Google’s PC-based advertising cash cow. This funds everything that Google does. Give away Windows Phone with every purchase of an Xbox system. Or Office. Or Exchange server or licenses. Buy Foxconn, the leading maker of smartphones
10. 6. Machinery Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com The smartphone maker is growing at 90% a year (or better) The market potential is for a minimum of 2 billion plus smartphones. The market is innovating rapidly. Own the innovation! Buy up every battery patent; every battery start-up; every (micro) fuel cell company. Abandon Intel and then buy up any/all IP related to smartphone processors. Do the same for smartphone screen technology. Buy up patent vultures Maps/voice/touch properties are still available. Own them.
11. 7. Nokia Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Today’s Microsoft cannot operate without massive market scale nor without market dominance. Achieve this through the obvious acquisition of Nokia. Global presence in mobile devices – ‘retrofit’ these with low-cost Office apps, Exchange services, business software Offer devices at every price point – begin by offering Nokia a Windows Phone 7 license to build Microsoft services into every device Nokia has relationships with nearly all major carriers. Microsoft can leverage these. Nokia has superior hardware to all Windows Phones, but Microsoft has the superior operating system. Great match!
12. 8. Developers Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Shower developers with cash Give the best license terms of any smartphone platform Integrate Xbox (Live) and Windows Phone license to encourage maximum developer participation Have a big money developer contest every week, every month, every year; for best app, most popular app; most innovative app Pay developers (like Angry Birds) to develop for your platform asap, then pay them much much more to *stop* further development on any other platform
13. 9. Destroy Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com The day before the original iPhone was launched, everyone assumed that Microsoft’s Windows Mobile would be the dominant platform. It couldn’t even slay Blackberry Ten years ago, Microsoft talked about ‘slates’. We will have iPad 2 and HP-Palm Tablet and Samsung Galaxy will sell more than 10 million tablets before we can even have the chance to buy a Windows Tablet. Not that we would want to. Microsoft has lost billions on the Internet! Microsoft probably hasn’t earned a actual positive return on Xbox. Bottom-line: The company must be destroyed. Split up and sold off. It’s your only hope. From one bloated carcass, many will live.
14. 10. The Unholy Copyright Brian S Hall and the Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Not ready to destroy the company? Then you must enter into an unholy alliance. All Microsoft monies essentially come from Windows and Office. Windows will be slayed by iPhones and iPads and Androids and HP-Palm devices. But, Office can prevail and continue to lay golden eggs. Losing Windows and reducing the cost of Office (for tablets and smartphones) can be mitigated by having a far larger market than there ever was with PCs. Thus, you should focus on building Office for Macs (all laptops from 2011 on will pretty much be Macs), for iPad, for iPhone, for Android, Android tablets, HP-Palm tablets. Forget Wintel, forget Windows.
15. For a more detailed analysis for each of these suggestions you will need to hire me. - Brian S Hall The Smartphone Wars www.brianshall.com Copyright 2010
