The document summarizes trends in the US apartment market in 2009. It finds that the market diverged into two camps based on long-term investment value versus short-term transactional value. Fundamentals remained solid, but debt markets were challenging and investors were cautious. It predicts that multi-family capital markets will remain difficult in 2009 with low transaction volumes and rising cap rates, especially for lower quality properties.
10. Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates by Group Delinquency Rates Delinquency rates at the end of each period Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Mortgage Bankers Association
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13. Estimated Multi-Family Debt Maturities by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
14. Estimated Multi-Family Debt Maturities by Vintage Maturing Balance (Billions $) Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
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18. Apartment Investment Trends Dollar Volume by Price Category Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics $104 Billion $100 Billion $45 Billion * Excludes Archstone Privatization $87 Billion $27 Billion $9 Billion
19. National Apartment Price and Cap Rates * Through 2Q Includes sales $1Million and Greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Costar Group, Inc. Average Price per Unit (000s) Average Cap Rate
20. Re-Pricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market Average Cap Rate Sales $5 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * Preliminary Estimate
21. 18 – Month Cap Rate Adjustment Matrix * Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.25 2.75 2.00 * Change in cap rates last 18 months
22. 18 – Month Pricing Adjustment Matrix Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” -25% Base = 5.00 / 5.50 5.50 / 6.25 6.00 / 6.75 -29% -32% -27% -30% -36% -33% -35% -41%
23. U.S. Apartment Buyer Composition Sales $5 Million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * YTD through July Percent of Sales Volume
24. U.S. Public REIT Valuation Indices vs. S&P 500 Index: December 1993 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NAREIT, Standard and Poor’s Index (Dec. 1993 = 100) * Through September
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29. 7.4 Million Net New Households 3.2 Million New Renter Households 4.1 Million New Owner Households * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Economy.com, Harvard University U.S. Household Growth Projection 2010 - 2015*
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35. U.S Economic, Capital Markets and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook – Multi-Family Executive Conference
36. Estimated Commercial Debt Maturities by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
37. Indicative Fannie Mae Rates Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve Board
38. Echo Boomer Demand Supports Appreciation * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau Change in Population Net Change: -2.1 Million -1.2 Million 1.8 Million 3.4 Million 3.2 Million 1.1 Million
39. U.S. Apartment Construction as a Percent of Beginning Inventory Construction as a Percent of Beg. Inventory * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
40. U.S. Apartment Investment Trends Transactions by Price Total Transactions Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
41. U.S. Apartment Investment Trends Dollar Volume by Price Total Dollar Volume (billions) Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
42. Year-over-Year Change * Through August Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BOC, Federal Reserve Value of U.S. Dollar vs. Value of Exports
Notes de l'éditeur
Investment composition: Institutional : pension funds, insurance companies & banks User/Other : corporations, governmental and non-profit Syndicator : Tenancy-in-Common and Private REITs Fund : privately sponsored comingled opportunity/equity funds
U.S. office construction as a percent of beginning inventory
The price per barrel for crude oil continues to rise eroding consumers disposable income. As prices continue to rise, retail sales will be further reduced.
