The Labor Market Situation in March report showed that: 1) Payroll employment increased by 192,000 in March, meeting expectations. Private sector employment has surpassed pre-recession levels. 2) The unemployment rate remained flat at 6.7% in March while the employment rate ticked up, suggesting steady employment growth is keeping up with population growth. 3) Weather impacts from earlier months were reversed as hours worked returned to record high levels, and most indicators pointed to continued recovery in the labor market.

1. The Labor Market Situation in March
Office of Economic Policy
April 7, 2014
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Analysis

2. 11Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy1
Payroll survey: met (fairly) high expectations
1-month change, in thousands
• March 2014 192
• February 2014 188
• January 2014 166
12-month change, in thousands
• March 2013 to 2014: 2,265
• Average: 189

3. 22Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy2
Previous months revised +37,000
The longer trend still shows steady growth

4. 33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3
Seems slow patch was indeed weather
Private sector employment has surpassed pre-recession peak
Sector we were still monitoring was retail trade
– Still a bit sluggish for third month:
– +21,000 compared to average of 26,000 last 12 months

5. 44Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy4
Employment growth by super-sector this month

6. 55Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy5
Employment growth by super-sector over the year

7. 66Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy6
Unemployment rate was flat…
March 2014 6.7%
February 2014 6.7%
January 2014 6.6%
March 2013: 7.5%

8. 77Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy7
…employment rate ticked up again – trend?
March 2014: 58.9%
February 2014: 58.8%
January 2014: 58.8%
March 2013: 58.5%

9. 88Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy8
LFP ticked up (trend?) – though flat over the year
March 2014: 63.2%
February 2014: 63.0%
January 2014: 63.0%
March 2013: 63.3%

10. 99Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy9
Not in Labor Force
-331,000
Employed
+476,000
Unemployed
+27,000
Not in Labor Force
84,375,000
Employed
139,287,000
Unemployed
5,867,000
More entrants got jobs than became unemployed
2,315,000
2,692,000
net other 9,000 net other 110,000
net other 54,000

11. 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy10
Long-term unemployment rate ticked down,
but remains highest since 1983
March 2014: 2.4%
February 2014: 2.5%
January 2014: 2.3%
March 2013: 3.0%

12. 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy11
Part-time employment remains elevated,
but more full-time than part-time jobs being created
past 12 months
• full-time employment + 2,102,000
• part-time employment +191,000
since ACA was passed (March 2010)
• full-time employment + 6,813,000
• part-time employment +126,000

13. 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy12
Weather had reduced hours,
but returned to record high (since July 1945)

14. 1313Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy13
Average hourly earnings up 2.1% over-the-year

15. 1414Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy14
Summary of month
Hours have recovered from weather
Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth
– Keeps up with population growth
– Possibly seeing movement in employment rate, participation
Wages
– Pretty steady 2% annually in nominal terms
– Falling inflation just under 2% is helping purchasing power
– But real wages remain low

16. Thank you!

17. 1616Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy16
Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough

18. 1717Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy17
Two employment surveys:
CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS