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Intuition– Its Power, Mystery & How to Get it
Quote: William James
“Compared with what
we ought to be,
we are only half-awake…
We are making use of only
a small part of our
possible mental resources.”
~ William James,
founder of Psychology (1911) ~
Intuition vs Conscious Reasoning
Complex
problems
& creativity
require Intuition.
Pure analysis
is not enough
Intuition
(system 1)
Conscious Reasoning
(system 2)
Slow
Linear, step-wise
Analytical
Deductive
Quickly changing
~ Rule based
Rapid
Parallel
Non-linear
Associative
Slow learning
~ Emotional
Creative
Thought
“Intuition is imperative because conscious reasoning
and logic are too limited for human-created problems,
particularly those on the global scale.”
- Daniel Cappon, ‘Intuition & Management’
The Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Illusion
Ordered
Logical
Mathematical
Artistic
Creative
Musical
’Intuition’ is an Umbrella Concept
Heuristics
System 1 – all forms of non-conscious thinking
Intuitionpracticediscernsanddeepens
Examples of intuition
Experiences
Results
Associations
Instincts Reflexes
Automations
”butterflies in stomach”
Certainty
”Heureka!”
”right direction”Doubting feeling
Vision
Insight Message
Understanding
Solution Confirmation
Intuition – Four Categories (?)
Affective associations (feelings) Recognising (pattern/prototype)
Accumulative (tresholds/combining) Constructive (new ideas)
Intuition Developmental Stages
Smart Heuristics (Gigerenzer)
1. Heuristics: useful intuitions!
2. Speed up decision-making
3. Simplify towards action
4. Simplicity wins over complexity
Uncertainty? Intuition wins!
EXAMPLE: Gaze Heuristic
Simple Heuristicθ˚
Biases in Heuristics (Kahneman)
“System 1 is the source of your rapid and often
precise intuitive judgments. “
“System 2 is not a paragon of rationality.
Its abilities are limited and so is the knowledge it has access to.”
“Our thoughts and actions are routinely guided by System 1
and generally are on the mark.”
CASE: Firefighters know
Simple vs. Complex in Forecasting
Error in Past Data fitting Accuracy%
Heuristic
(take the best)
Weighted
analysis
(regression)
Equal
weighting
(tallying)
Degree of polynomial (statistical algorithm)
Data Fit (Past) Prediction (Future)
ErrorLevel
Accuracy of Temperature forecasts vs Complexity
Heuristics vs Regression in Forecasts
Error in Forecasting Future trend
Too much complexity leads
to over-fitting and worse
forecasts
2.4
7.7 variables
7.7
Simple heuristics can
win in forecasting
CASE: Price of Oil Forecast (Taleb)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Quote: William Gibson
“The future is already here
— it's just not
very evenly distributed.”
~ William Gibson ~
Expert Forecasts (Tetlock)
Philip Tetlock
Can we forecast the future?
- How accurate are experts?
- Are they better than algorithms?
- Who are the best forecasters?
- What are the qualities of the best?
We believe experts, but have no data!
Experts : Blind Monkeys
CASE: Recession Forecasts (IMF)
Correct:
0 0 3 0 0
Forecasted recession
(one year ahead)
Actual number of recessions
(one year after)
Recession forecasting by hundreds of Economic professionals
Two categories of Forecasters
Hedgehogs & Foxes
Superforecasters (Tetlock)
1. Be a Fox
2. Rate your confidence
3. Score results neutrally
4. Be actively open-minded
5. Re-assess &
Re-calibrate
Superforecaster
Principles
Compare several trends: contradict
Historical context: cycles & averages
Average opinion: middle more accurate
Math models: if right in same situation
Predict biases : let go, if data shows
Analyse
Reduce
Deduct
Criticise
Copy
Standard
Result
Avoid Risk
Get Insight
Immerse
Contradict
Combine
Associate
Play
New
Ideas
Risk vs Insight
How to Get Insights (Klein)Gary KleinHow to get New Insights:
1. Explore contradictions (what if?)
2. Create connections (learn new)
3. Personal desperation (discard)
Break routines : curious observation
Gary A. Klein
CASE: Who Saves Your Life?
Amateur Expert
Amateurs Experts
Helpers
Evaluators
5+
y.
5+
y.
Reason
When you desperately need it – Intuition becomes available
Flow Creates Intuition (Kotler)
Steven Kotler
1. Flow puts you in the intuition zone
2. Flow alters state of consciousness
3. Sense of time is lost
4. Loss of self floods in
5. You feel part of something greater
You know directly what to do
CASE: Extreme Rock Climbing
1.Intensely Focused Attention
2.Clear Goal (what & why)
3.Immediate, Honest Feedback
4.Challenge/Skill ratio c. 105%
Creative Breakthroughs (Shavinina)ExtraCognitive Innovations require:
1. Deep passion for subject
2. Cognitive curiosity (questioning)
3. Self-regulation: mental & emotional
4. Self-confidence & independence
Joyful doing: a passion for excellence
Larisa L. Shavinina
CASE: Barbara McClintock (Keller)
QUOTE: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
“And now here is my
secret,
a very simple secret:
It is only with the heart
that one can see rightly;
what is essential
is invisible to the eye.”
~ Antoine de Saint-Exupéry ~
False Beliefs about the Heart
“It’s just a pump”
“Mechanical”
“Can be replaced
with a machine”
“Steady beat is good”
”Dumb, not intelligent.”
Modern Neuro-cardiology
Heart is a Sensing Organ.
Brains are not the rhythmic controller of bodily functions, the Heart is.
Brain sends c. 40-60 times as much data to the brain as is reverse.
Heart tunes feelings, reactions, perceptions and physiological feedback.
Heart has its own intrinsic memory – independent of the brains.
Heart Coherence improves Intuition
Incoherent: Weakens functioning – requires energy (stress)
Coherent: Supports peak performance – increases resiliency
PulsePulse
Disturbs
cognitive
functions
Improves
cognitive
functions
Time (seconds)
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
1 50 100 150 200
© Institute of HeartMath
1 50 100 150 200
Time (seconds)
Heart EMF Field Extends Beyond Body
+3m outside the body
Encodes emotional information
Others can sense the field
Fields can synchronize together
DO: Quick Heart Coherence Meditation
2. Close Your eyes and
imagine you breathe
through your heart
4. Breathe through
heart & feel the love and
gratitude in your body
3. Recall a positive memory
of love or deep gratitude
1. Take a few deep
diaphragm breaths
Quote: Rumi
“Only from the heart
can you touch the sky..”
~ Rumi ~
WARNING!
Tesla – A Visionary Genius
“My brain is only a receiver,
in the Universe there is a core
from which we obtain
knowledge, strength and
inspiration.
I have not penetrated into the
secrets of this core, but I know
that it exists.”
― Nikola Tesla
Extraordinary Knowing
Quote: Kaufmann - telepathy
“If mind is partially
quantum, nonlocality is
possible … as is
telepathy.
We are arrogant not to
look at this with
open minds.”
— Stuart Kauffman,
biologist (2015)
Body Anticipates the Future
Before photo During photo Photo removed
Time
0
+3 s +10 s
Calming photo
0 s-5 s
Calming photo
Exciting photo
Skin reaction
vs.?
“We found out experimentally that ESP
exists, but that any practical application of
this knowledge is not likely in the
foreseeable future.”
- Masanobu Sakaguchi , Sony (1998)
If it Works – Why isn’t being used?
Can Psychics crack the Wall St?
Did Psychic Powers Give Firm
a Killing In the Silver Market?
— And Did Greed Ruin It All?
By Erik Larson
This was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles.
Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king
was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called
it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a
few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something
extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion weighing 570 pounds.
Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion. Delphi
is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of
its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise,"
says Anthony R. White, a Stanford University M.B.A., art investor
and manager of a family fortune. The research heavyweight is Russell
Targ, a physicist who built sophisticated lasers for GTE Sylvania Inc.
until 1972, then spent the next 10 years doing hush-hush, still
"classified," psychic research for the federal government at SRI
International, the sober California think tank. "We didn't invent
psychic functioning," he says. "We thought we understood it enough
to go into the market.“
Clairvoyance has always
had its rewards. In 550
B.C., King Croesus of
Lydia sliced up a tortoise
and a lamb and mashed
them together in a brass
pot. This was not dinner.
This was a test, and a
clever one, of the ancient
network of oracles.
Croesus sent messengers
to ask each oracle to
describe what the king
was up to at that
particular moment. Only
the oracle at Delphi called
it right. No slouch when it
came to rewards, Croesus
slaughtered a few
thousand sacrificial
beasts, then dropped off a
little something extra: 117
weighing 570 pounds.
Delphi Associates of San
Mateo would settle for the
Delphi is a struggling
three-man partnership
formed to cash in on the
— Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition). Oct 22, 1984. —
Remote Viewing used by Organizations
Meditative Traditions Confirm
“By Samyama over
the changes of characteristic,
secondary quality and condition,
comes to the Yogis
the knowledge
of the past and the future.”
~ Patañjali ,
’Yoga Sutras’(400 CE) ~
“Great enlightening beings,
by super-knowledge of the eons
of the entire future, know the
ages of the worlds as numerous
as the atoms in untold
Buddha lands.
This called great enlightening
beings’ fourth super-knowledge,
the power of knowing the ages
of the entire future.”
~ ’Flower Ornament Scripture’
(200 CE) ~
“Know your Atman
- the pure, infinite consciousness,
eternally existent in the past,
present and future.
Thus you will find peace .”
~ Adi Shankara,
’Vivekaduchamani’ (700 CE)~
Quote: Einstein
“People like us,
who believe in physics,
know that the
distinction between
past, present, and future
is only a stubbornly
persistent illusion.”
~ Albert Einstein ~
How do I do this?
1. Direct
2. Quiet down & Turn Inward
3. Observe & Linger
4. Apply & Test
Yes
No
Something
else
5. Have fun!
Thank You!
Intuition Books
Business
Biases Heuristics Risk Intuitions Insights
Using
Research
Methods Developing Examples
Extraordinary Intuition Reading

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Intuition - its power, mystery & how to get it

  • 1. Intuition– Its Power, Mystery & How to Get it
  • 2. Quote: William James “Compared with what we ought to be, we are only half-awake… We are making use of only a small part of our possible mental resources.” ~ William James, founder of Psychology (1911) ~
  • 3. Intuition vs Conscious Reasoning Complex problems & creativity require Intuition. Pure analysis is not enough Intuition (system 1) Conscious Reasoning (system 2) Slow Linear, step-wise Analytical Deductive Quickly changing ~ Rule based Rapid Parallel Non-linear Associative Slow learning ~ Emotional Creative Thought “Intuition is imperative because conscious reasoning and logic are too limited for human-created problems, particularly those on the global scale.” - Daniel Cappon, ‘Intuition & Management’
  • 4. The Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Illusion Ordered Logical Mathematical Artistic Creative Musical
  • 5. ’Intuition’ is an Umbrella Concept Heuristics System 1 – all forms of non-conscious thinking Intuitionpracticediscernsanddeepens Examples of intuition Experiences Results Associations Instincts Reflexes Automations ”butterflies in stomach” Certainty ”Heureka!” ”right direction”Doubting feeling Vision Insight Message Understanding Solution Confirmation
  • 6. Intuition – Four Categories (?) Affective associations (feelings) Recognising (pattern/prototype) Accumulative (tresholds/combining) Constructive (new ideas)
  • 8. Smart Heuristics (Gigerenzer) 1. Heuristics: useful intuitions! 2. Speed up decision-making 3. Simplify towards action 4. Simplicity wins over complexity Uncertainty? Intuition wins!
  • 10. Biases in Heuristics (Kahneman) “System 1 is the source of your rapid and often precise intuitive judgments. “ “System 2 is not a paragon of rationality. Its abilities are limited and so is the knowledge it has access to.” “Our thoughts and actions are routinely guided by System 1 and generally are on the mark.”
  • 12. Simple vs. Complex in Forecasting Error in Past Data fitting Accuracy% Heuristic (take the best) Weighted analysis (regression) Equal weighting (tallying) Degree of polynomial (statistical algorithm) Data Fit (Past) Prediction (Future) ErrorLevel Accuracy of Temperature forecasts vs Complexity Heuristics vs Regression in Forecasts Error in Forecasting Future trend Too much complexity leads to over-fitting and worse forecasts 2.4 7.7 variables 7.7 Simple heuristics can win in forecasting
  • 13. CASE: Price of Oil Forecast (Taleb) Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • 14. Quote: William Gibson “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.” ~ William Gibson ~
  • 15. Expert Forecasts (Tetlock) Philip Tetlock Can we forecast the future? - How accurate are experts? - Are they better than algorithms? - Who are the best forecasters? - What are the qualities of the best? We believe experts, but have no data!
  • 16. Experts : Blind Monkeys
  • 17. CASE: Recession Forecasts (IMF) Correct: 0 0 3 0 0 Forecasted recession (one year ahead) Actual number of recessions (one year after) Recession forecasting by hundreds of Economic professionals
  • 18. Two categories of Forecasters Hedgehogs & Foxes
  • 19. Superforecasters (Tetlock) 1. Be a Fox 2. Rate your confidence 3. Score results neutrally 4. Be actively open-minded 5. Re-assess & Re-calibrate Superforecaster Principles Compare several trends: contradict Historical context: cycles & averages Average opinion: middle more accurate Math models: if right in same situation Predict biases : let go, if data shows
  • 21. How to Get Insights (Klein)Gary KleinHow to get New Insights: 1. Explore contradictions (what if?) 2. Create connections (learn new) 3. Personal desperation (discard) Break routines : curious observation Gary A. Klein
  • 22. CASE: Who Saves Your Life? Amateur Expert Amateurs Experts Helpers Evaluators 5+ y. 5+ y. Reason When you desperately need it – Intuition becomes available
  • 23. Flow Creates Intuition (Kotler) Steven Kotler 1. Flow puts you in the intuition zone 2. Flow alters state of consciousness 3. Sense of time is lost 4. Loss of self floods in 5. You feel part of something greater You know directly what to do
  • 24. CASE: Extreme Rock Climbing 1.Intensely Focused Attention 2.Clear Goal (what & why) 3.Immediate, Honest Feedback 4.Challenge/Skill ratio c. 105%
  • 25. Creative Breakthroughs (Shavinina)ExtraCognitive Innovations require: 1. Deep passion for subject 2. Cognitive curiosity (questioning) 3. Self-regulation: mental & emotional 4. Self-confidence & independence Joyful doing: a passion for excellence Larisa L. Shavinina
  • 27. QUOTE: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry “And now here is my secret, a very simple secret: It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.” ~ Antoine de Saint-Exupéry ~
  • 28. False Beliefs about the Heart “It’s just a pump” “Mechanical” “Can be replaced with a machine” “Steady beat is good” ”Dumb, not intelligent.”
  • 29. Modern Neuro-cardiology Heart is a Sensing Organ. Brains are not the rhythmic controller of bodily functions, the Heart is. Brain sends c. 40-60 times as much data to the brain as is reverse. Heart tunes feelings, reactions, perceptions and physiological feedback. Heart has its own intrinsic memory – independent of the brains.
  • 30. Heart Coherence improves Intuition Incoherent: Weakens functioning – requires energy (stress) Coherent: Supports peak performance – increases resiliency PulsePulse Disturbs cognitive functions Improves cognitive functions Time (seconds) 100 – 90 – 80 – 70 – 60 – 50 – 100 – 90 – 80 – 70 – 60 – 50 – 1 50 100 150 200 © Institute of HeartMath 1 50 100 150 200 Time (seconds)
  • 31. Heart EMF Field Extends Beyond Body +3m outside the body Encodes emotional information Others can sense the field Fields can synchronize together
  • 32. DO: Quick Heart Coherence Meditation 2. Close Your eyes and imagine you breathe through your heart 4. Breathe through heart & feel the love and gratitude in your body 3. Recall a positive memory of love or deep gratitude 1. Take a few deep diaphragm breaths
  • 33. Quote: Rumi “Only from the heart can you touch the sky..” ~ Rumi ~
  • 35. Tesla – A Visionary Genius “My brain is only a receiver, in the Universe there is a core from which we obtain knowledge, strength and inspiration. I have not penetrated into the secrets of this core, but I know that it exists.” ― Nikola Tesla
  • 37. Quote: Kaufmann - telepathy “If mind is partially quantum, nonlocality is possible … as is telepathy. We are arrogant not to look at this with open minds.” — Stuart Kauffman, biologist (2015)
  • 38. Body Anticipates the Future Before photo During photo Photo removed Time 0 +3 s +10 s Calming photo 0 s-5 s Calming photo Exciting photo Skin reaction vs.?
  • 39. “We found out experimentally that ESP exists, but that any practical application of this knowledge is not likely in the foreseeable future.” - Masanobu Sakaguchi , Sony (1998) If it Works – Why isn’t being used?
  • 40. Can Psychics crack the Wall St? Did Psychic Powers Give Firm a Killing In the Silver Market? — And Did Greed Ruin It All? By Erik Larson This was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion weighing 570 pounds. Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion. Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise," says Anthony R. White, a Stanford University M.B.A., art investor and manager of a family fortune. The research heavyweight is Russell Targ, a physicist who built sophisticated lasers for GTE Sylvania Inc. until 1972, then spent the next 10 years doing hush-hush, still "classified," psychic research for the federal government at SRI International, the sober California think tank. "We didn't invent psychic functioning," he says. "We thought we understood it enough to go into the market.“ Clairvoyance has always had its rewards. In 550 B.C., King Croesus of Lydia sliced up a tortoise and a lamb and mashed them together in a brass pot. This was not dinner. This was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 weighing 570 pounds. Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the — Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition). Oct 22, 1984. —
  • 41. Remote Viewing used by Organizations
  • 42. Meditative Traditions Confirm “By Samyama over the changes of characteristic, secondary quality and condition, comes to the Yogis the knowledge of the past and the future.” ~ Patañjali , ’Yoga Sutras’(400 CE) ~ “Great enlightening beings, by super-knowledge of the eons of the entire future, know the ages of the worlds as numerous as the atoms in untold Buddha lands. This called great enlightening beings’ fourth super-knowledge, the power of knowing the ages of the entire future.” ~ ’Flower Ornament Scripture’ (200 CE) ~ “Know your Atman - the pure, infinite consciousness, eternally existent in the past, present and future. Thus you will find peace .” ~ Adi Shankara, ’Vivekaduchamani’ (700 CE)~
  • 43. Quote: Einstein “People like us, who believe in physics, know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.” ~ Albert Einstein ~
  • 44. How do I do this?
  • 46. 2. Quiet down & Turn Inward
  • 47. 3. Observe & Linger
  • 48. 4. Apply & Test Yes No Something else
  • 51. Intuition Books Business Biases Heuristics Risk Intuitions Insights Using Research Methods Developing Examples

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. 1800-luvun lopun erinomainen psykologi ja lääkäri, modernin psykologian perustajia Intuition ja sen kehittämisen puolestapuhuja, kunnes psykologian valtasi behaviorismi ja opittujen käyttäytymismallien tutkiminen
  2. Yleinen Vasen-oikea –aivopuolimalli on aika lailla harhaanjohtava Meillä kaikilla on näitä ominaisuuksia, jotka usein mielletään vasemman tai oikean aivopuoliskon ominaisuuksiksi Intuitio on samoin usein mielletty oikean aivopuoliskon toiminnoksi Ominaisuudet eivät kuitenkaan sijaitse näin vasemmalla tai oikealla Yhtä lailla on virheellistä ajatella, että ihmiset ovat vasemman tai oikean aivopuoliskon käyttäjiä Kaikki ominaisuudet ovat käytettävissämme ja niistä voidaan löytää jälkiä useilta puolilta aivoja Harjoittelun määrä on ratkaisevaa – se mitä käytät, siinä kehityt
  3. Entä sitten käytäntö? Otetaan esimerkki: Ryhmä palomiehiä menee esimiehen käskystä palavan talon katolle, tekemään reikiä kattoon, jotta palon kulkua saadaan ohjattua. Katolle kiipeää ryhmälle tuntematon, toinen esimies. Tämä kävelee katolla ja pyytää reikää tekeviä poistumaan katolta välittömästi. Katto romahtaa alas. Kun esimieheltä kysytään, mistä hän tiesi, että katto romahtaa, hän kertoo: “Katto tuntui liian joustavalta, tiesin, että jotain on pielessä. Ehkä rakenteet olivat pehmenneet.” Tämänkaltainen ennakkoaavistaminen perustuu hyvin sisäistettyin kokemuksiin siitä, miten tietyt tilanteet yleensä kehittyvät. Meille muodostuu sisäisiä tarinallisia odotteita, joita seuraamalla voimme aavistaa, mitä tulee tapahtumaan ja voimme huomata, jos tapahtuukin jotain tarinasta poikkeavaa, yllättävää. Tällainen luonnollinen aavistava, intuitiivinen päättely on tutkittua ja se selittyy hyvin asiantuntijoiden sanattomalla tiedolla. Se ei ole kuitenkaan ainoa intuition muoto. Lähde: Sources of Power – How People Make Decisions, Gary Klein
  4. Linear regression estimates the optimal beta weights for the predictors, based on past data. However, in the 70s already, researchers found out that random weighting of predictors gave better FORECASTS. Such was born tallying (which is all equally weighted) Take-the-best consists of three building blocks: 1. Search rule: Search through cues in order of their validity. 2. Stopping rule: Stop on finding the first cue that discriminates between the objects (i.e., cue values are 1 and 0). 3. Decision rule: Infer that the object with the positive cue value (1) has the higher criterion value. Take-the-best is a member of the one-good-reason family of heuristics because of its stopping rule: Search is stopped after finding the first cue that enables an inference to be made
  5. Forecasting the future Philip Tetlock (Pennsylvania University, psychology & management) wanted to know if experts are better than chance, simple algorithms or everyday pundits at predicting the future. He set out to study this by studying a group of policy experts, with domain expertise in their respective fields Future is by definition unknowable (to a degree) and it cannot be rationally known, there is always a degree of intuitive guessing involved.
  6. Tetlock’s main findins were summarised in his 2005 book: Expert political Judgment He studies c. 300 experts, for about 20 years, tracking 28 000 predictions. Result: Simple statistical algorithm (extrapolation) does better than most of the experts Most experts do not correct for their errors, even when it is systematic and when they are told about it The results are game-theoretically understandable: you are disproportionately punished for being WRONG alone, than being rewarded for being right alone (or together with somebody else) So, people copy each other and nobody wants to be seen as a party-pooper, so they don’t want to give differing forecasts, even if they feel it is true Further, when they don’t get it right, even with their best predictions (excluding the self-censorship), forecasters do NOT learn and are not willing to discuss their failures openly Cognitive dissonance works strongly, even with experts: ”Mistakes were made (but not by us)” In summary: experts are NO better than blind monkeys throwing dart at the board while believing they are consistently hitting near the bull’s eye.
  7. CASE: Forecasting future recession by country (one year ahead) Tetlock and others have noted what is painfully obvious about important forecasts - they are almost all wrong, consistently and little is done to correct for the systemic bias in the errors (the following data from IMF researchers, 2014): Timespan 2008-2012, Question: will there a be a recession next year and in which country Experts: hundreds of professional economic forecasters Baseline comparison: 88 recessions happened in different countries during timespan Result 1: None of the 2008-2009 recessions (62) were predicted by any experts in the sampling (in the previous year) Result 2: 8 of the 7 recession from 2010 were predicted and all for the wrong countries  Result 3: the same overconfidence and positive bias continued for 2011 and 2012, prediction way less recessions than what actually happened Discussion: Expert economics forecasters are guilty of systematic overconfidence and positive bias. They rarely compensate for this, even when it’s known and this bias stays constant (it is not a one time fluke). In general there are no incentives or willingness to react to corrective feedback (i.e. change predictions or learn at systemic level) Further: predictions from the most important economic watchdogs, like OCED, IMF or Central Banks were not any better. In summary: economics as a profession, even the best experts are almost useless when it comes to predicting things like recession/depression or peak of a bubble (or even existence of a bubble in a pricing of an asset).
  8. What else did Philip Tetlock found in his research: Two types of forecaster types: hedgehogs and foxes Hedgehogs - Know one big thing (parsimonious, one big story, one big explainer, can be big believers, want to predict and have high self-confidence) One simple frugal heuristic, that doesn’t change, even if the world changes Dominate blogosphere, news and discussions Worst predictors based on results Foxes Know many small things (many ideas, not necessarily cohesive, sceptical of big theories, don’t want to predict, have lower confidence) Blink, willingness to change Less willing to go out and predict, usually clearly better than hedgehogs Both hedgehogs and foxes really bad at predicting - No difference in accuracy based on age, experience, political party, amount of training, higher education, sex, etc. No great, meaningful difference, just based on whether you are fox or hedgehog, as basic statistic almost always win Most have the same problems: too quick to make up their mind, too slow to change opinoins, fall in love with one’s own ideas Caveat emptor - This is for predicting the future events of world at large (or continuation of some trends) If you want to change the world, hedgehogs may do more likely big changes (stubborn), but may crash and burn. Foxes are more agile, and adapt more to the changing surrounding, not necessarily changing it so much Are there better forecaster? Good Judgment Project tries to find out 20 000 pros do forecasting on selected targets Everybody is given constant feedback on how well they did Everybody has to rate their own forecasting confidence (how sure are they that their prediction will turn out to be correct?) 3000 civilians with no expertise also do it (open to all), no special skills, just following the news, predicting based on their reading & feel The best c. 100 forecasters put together are 30% better than US intelligence agencies in predicting future outcomes Wisdom of the crowds - and here it is selective, self-evaluating, fox-like, elite crowd - really can work! Round for next prediction starts in July 2015, you can still join
  9. Further tips from Tetlock’s research (mnemonic: CHAMP): Comparisons are important: use several, relevant comparisons, don’t get stuck on single trends Historical trends give contexts: look at history, cycles and averages -- unless you have a strong reason to expect change Average opinions: experts disagree a lot – usually mid-point is more accurate than either extreme (but not always!) Mathematical models: when there are models, that have been known to be right in similar situations, take them into account Predictable biases are everywhere, everybody falls for them. Hope is not a strategy nor a forecast. Let go of forecasts in the face of news that prove predictions wrong
  10. Two modes of approaching decision making Avoid risk Aim for the win If the two are not in balance, either a wipeout (catastrophic risk) or mediocre copying (no new insights) can result Both are needed. Companies often concentrate more on risk avoidance and can’t utilize insights or don’t know how to get them.
  11. Flow-triggers Psychological triggers Intensely focused attention: singular, sometimes solitude (multi-tasking is out) Clear Goals: what (well defined) and why (what for) Immediate Feedback: Action -> Feedback delay clear, honest and real-time Challenge/Skill ratio c. 105%: with constant adjustment Environmental triggers High consequences: elevated risk, survival, even danger Rich environment: novel, unpredictable, complex Deep Embodiment: total physical awareness of your body and it’s signals Social Triggers Serious Concentration: here and now, observe Shared Clear Goals: not too narrow, if creativity is needed, boundary objects can help Good Communication: real-time, small signals, flowing (instead of fighting) Familiarity glue: common language, shared motives, lots of experiential shared time Equal Participation (& utilization of own skill level): everybody has a meaningful role to play, no sofa-surfers Risk of Failure: there are emotional stakes in the game Sense of control (can be an outcome, not a trigger also, so feeds back): autonomy, agency, competency & results Close listening: flowing based on what is now, instead of hammering on pre-decided notions Always say ”Yes”: Add to arguments, don’t stop them Creativity triggers Recognize patterns Take a risk on new, unproven, ideas
  12. Once she was working for two years with a most challenging mutation issue. Years later her colleague asked her how she could have worked for two years without knowing what was going to come out. “It never occurred to me that there was going to be any stumbling block. Not that I had the answer, but [I had] the joy of going at it. When you have that joy, you do the right experiments. You let the material tell you where to go, and it tells you at every step what the next step has to be because you’re integrating with an overall brand new pattern in mind. You’re not following the old one; you are convinced of a new one. And you let everything you do focus on that. You can’t help it, because it all integrates. There were no difficulties.” (pp.125) With Neurospora … Unwilling to accept her failure to see these minute objects under the microscope – to pick them out as individuals with continuity – she retreated to sit, and meditate, beneath the eucalyptus trees. There she “worked on herself”. When she felt she was ready, she returned to the microscope, and the chromosomes were now to be seen, not only by her, but, thereafter, by others as well. (148) If this were a story of insight arrived at by reflection, it would be more familiar. Its real force is a story of eyesight, and of the continuity between mind and eye that made McClintock’s work so distinctive and, at the same time, so difficult to communicate in ordinary language. Through years of intense and systematic observation and interpretation (she called it “integrating what you saw”), McClintock had build a theoretical vision, a highly articulated image of the world within the cell. As she watched the corn plants grow, examined the patterns on the leaves and kernels, looked down the microscope at their chromosomal structure, she saw directly into that ordered world. The “Book of Nature” was to be read simultaneously by the eyes of the body and those of the mind. The spots McClintock saw on the kernels of corn were ciphers in a text that, because of her understanding of their genetic meaning, she could read directly. For her, the eyes of the body were the eyes of the mind. Ordinary language could not begin to convey the full structure of the reading that emerged. (148-149) In order to “see” what McClintock “saw”, Witkin [the assistant] had to leaarn more that a new “language”’ she needed to share in McClintock’s internal vision. In that sense, “seeing” in science is not unlike “seeing” in art. Based on vision, our most public and our most private sense, it gives rise, to a kind of knowledge that requires more than a shared practice to be communicable: it requires a shared subjectivity (149)
  13. Mekaaninen, pumppu, kierrättää verta, voi korvata koneella, tasainen käynti on hyvästä
  14. “The heart is a sensory organ….The electrical signals the heart is sending to the brain have 40-60 times more amplitude than the brain.” It sends signals to the higher brain that inhibits or facilitates cortical function. Rollin McCraty, Ph.D., Research Director, Institute of HeartMath. “The brain is not the master controller. The heart is the mainframe…. The heart sets the emotions, responses, perceptions and physiology.” Bruce C. Wilson, M.D., Division Chief of Cardiology, Wilson Heart Care Associates
  15. http://depositphotos.com/7554233/stock-photo-Human-energy-body-aura-chakras-energy-silhouette.html?sst=&sqc=11&sqm=647&sq=2om7y7 http://depositphotos.com/7478611/stock-photo-Woman-and-man-energy-body-aura-chakras-energy-silhouette.html?sst=&sqc=6&sqm=647&sq=2om7y7 http://depositphotos.com/29135425/stock-photo-Human-energy-body-silhouette-with-aura-and-chakras.html?sst=&sqc=18&sqm=647&sq=2om7y7 http://depositphotos.com/7554347/stock-photo-Woman-and-man-energy-body-aura-chakras-energy-silhouette.html?sst=&sqc=23&sqm=647&sq=2om7y7
  16. http://depositphotos.com/21339547/stock-illustration-Anahata---heart-chakra---lotus-flower.html?sst=&sqc=33&sqm=139&sq=2om7hl
  17. Ennenkö menemme eteenpäin haluan antaa yleisen varoituksen. Nämä tieteelliset löydökset ovat kiistanalaisia. Eivät niinkään niiden tulosten epäselvyyden takia, vaan sen takia, kuinka paljon ne ravisuttavat erityisesti psykologien maailmankuvaa. Tämän takia voitte olla rauhassa, että jos puhutte näistä tutkijaystävillenne, niin suurin osa ei tiedä näistä tuloksista, eikä usko edes katsomaan tuloksia, vaan päättää etukäteen, että “näin ei voi olla.” Se ei kuitenkaan poista sitä tosiasiaa, että näitä tuloksia saadaa tiukkaan valvotuissa koejärjestelyissä.
  18. Tesla: yli 300 patenttia, suuri osa merkittävistä sähkön ja radion peruskeksinnöistä Jo nuoresta kiinnostunut henkisyydestä, vietti paljon aikaa yksin mielessään, luki buddhalaista kirjallisuutta Näki usein esineitä ja valoja tavallisen näkökykynsä päälle sijoitettuna ja alussa vaikeuksia erottaa mikä totta ja mikä tuli idea-avaruudesta Keksi asioita mielessään, pyöritteli niitä siellä, ja rakensi ne vasta kun ne olivat valmiita Omasta mielestään toimi vain keksintöjen tulkkina, ottaen ideat suuresta ideoiden avaruudesta ja tuoden ne tähän maailmaan Teslan keksintöjen prosessi oli lähes täysin “mielessä” tapahtuva: Hän näki geometrisia muotoja mielessään Hän yritti ymmärtää mikä fyysinen tarkoitus tällä keksinnöllä olisi Sitten hän muodollisesti käsitteli keksinnön toimivuuden matemaattisesti päässään Vasta tämän jälkeen hän alkoi käydä läpi materiaalien ja rakenteiden valintoja laitteen rakentamiseksi Teslan mukaansa hänen ajatuksensa tulivat universumin ykseydestä, kaikkien ideoiden maailmasta, josta hän vain valitsi ja sovelsi ideoita tähän maailmaan toteutettavaksi. Hän käytti loputtomia tunteja yksin, ilman ärsykkeitä, mielessään, ilman kokeita tai muistikirjoja, perehtyen tähän universaaliin maailman Lainauksia Teslalta: "In my boyhood I suffered from a peculiar affliction due to the appearance of images, often accompanied by strong flashes of light, which covered the sight of real objects and interfered with my thought and actions ... When a word was spoken to me, the image of the object it designated would present itself vividly to my vision and sometimes I was quite unable to distinguish whether what I saw was tangible or not.“ "Then, instinctively, I commenced making mind trips beyond the limits of the small world of which I had knowledge and I saw new scenes. These were at first very blurred and indistinct, and would flit away when I tried to concentrate my attention upon them but, by and by, I succeeded in fixing them; they gained in strength and distinctness and finally assumed the concreteness of a real thing. I soon discovered that my best comfort was attained if I simply went on in my vision further and further, getting new impressions all the time, and so I began to travel - of course in my mind. Every night (and sometimes during the day) when alone, I would start on my journeys, see new places, cities and countries, live there, meet people and make friendships and acquaintances and, however unbelievable, it is a fact that they were just as real and dear to me as those in actual life and not one bit less intense in their manifestations. This I did constantly until I was seventeen, when my thoughts turned seriously to invention.“ "In some certain moments I noticed that all the air around me was full of tongues of real flame. The intensity of these tongues grew after a number of years instead of falling and reached its maximum at the age of twenty-five. Once I had a feeling that my brain was enveloped in flames and a little Sun shines in my head". At the age of 65: "These light phenomena sometimes still appear, especially when some new idea shows me unprecedented possibilities, but their intensity is relatively weak". Tesla sharply distinguished ideas which were coming into his mind as visions, and those which appeared due to analytical mind activity. Tesla explained: "The moment when somebody designs an imaginary device, there is a problem of putting the raw idea into practice. That's why any discovery made this way has lack of details, and usually it is inferior... My method is a different one.“ Thomas Edison, because he had "weak knowledge in mathematics, and he was mainly guided by long and laborious experiments".
  19. “Tietoisuus on täysi mysteeri. Emme tiedä miten sähköiset impulssit hermoissa liittyvät tuntemuksiimme ja toimintaamme.” -- Freeman Dyson, fyysikko “Miten tietoisuus voi syntyä aivoissa? En minä tiedä. Eikä tiedä kukaan muukaan.” -- Steven Pinker, psykologi
  20. Spottiswoode & May löysivät ennakkotuntemisen efektin 80-luvulla Asiaa tutkinut Dean Radin, joka on havainnut kokeissa, että aavistamme emotionaalisesti jännän tapahtuman useammin kuin puhtaasti arvaamalla, n. 3-5 sekuntia ennen tapahtumaa Tarkemmin, ihomme sähkönjohtavuus muuttuu, tiedostimme sitä tai emme Koe on toistettu muiden laboratorioissa ja tulokset ovat vastaavia: emme aavista 100% oikein aina tulevan tapahtuman miellyttävyyttä, mutta useammin kuin “pitäisi” Sama ennalta tunteminen on mitattavissa myös pupillien laajentumisessa (Radin), aivojen sähkökäyrässä (Radin, Bierman) ja sydämen lyöntitiheyden variaation muuttumisessa (McCraty) Materialistiset tiedemiehet kieltävät nämä tutkimustulokset, ilman perehtymistä tuloksiin, koska “ne eivät voi olla oikeassa” Fysiikan kokeet kuitenkin käsitystä siitä, että lineaarinen aika ei ehkä olekaan niin yksisuuntainen ja pakotettu, kuin materialistiset ja deterministiset psykologit kuvittelevat
  21. Russel Targ, kaukokatsomisen tutkija ja menetelmän yksi kehittäjistä, koulutukseltaan fyysikko Tutki kaukokatsomista n. 10 vuotta, kunnes perusti yrityksen Delphi Associates Kaukokatsomisen avulla yritys ennusti tai katsoi hopeajohdannaisten hinnan muuutoksen suuntaa (edullisempi/kalliimpi) ja määrää (vähän/paljon) Yritys sijoitti rahaa yhdeksän viikon ajan ja nettosi kaukokatsomisella tuon ajan rahaa $120 000 USD (nykyrahassa n. $270 000 dollaria) Todennäköisyys, että tämä oltaisiin saatu aikaan puhtaasti arvaamalla on n. 1 /
  22. Ranskan korkein oikeus Rikostutkimus 5 kaukokatsojaa, tunnin sessiot 2200 luokiteltua tietoa 13 päivän analyysi tiedoista Asiakkaan arvio työstä: 10/10
  23. “Great enlightening beings, by super-knowledge of the eons of the entire future, know the ages of the worlds as numerous as the atoms in untold Buddha lands. This called great enlightening beings’ fourth super-knowledge, the power of knowing the ages of the entire future.” - The Flower Ornament Scripture”, a.d. 100): ” All immense eons of past, present, and future, Buddha reveals in every instant - All the events of their formation and decay His inconceivable knowledge comprehends” - Flower Ornament Scripture, Avatamsaka Sutra (Mahāyāna Buddhism) “By Samyama over the changes of of characteristic, secondary quality and condition, comes to the Yogis the knowledge of the past and the future.” – Yoga Sutras, Patañjali (Rama Prasada translation) (Hindu “Know your Atman — the pure, infinite conscious-ness, eternally existent in the past, present and future. Thus you will find peace.“ – Shankara, ‘Crest Jewel of Discrimination’ “Timeless awareness, amazing and marvelous, was ineffable in the past and will be ineffable in the future, for it is primordially ineffable.” ‘The Reverberation of Sound’, in 'Nyingma Gyubum’ Collected Tantras of the Ancients “For anyone who does not hold on to traces of the past or anticipate the future, but lets consciousness rest moment by moment in its natural place, all consciousness blends as one, without any distinction of earlier or later, in what I call "the single unifying essence. “ “Great enlightening beings, by super-knowledge of the eons of the entire future, know the ages of the worlds as numerous as the atoms in untold Buddha lands. They also know the whole future of worlds as numerous as atoms… this is called great enlightening beings’ fourth super-knowledge, the power of knowing the ages of the entire future.” - The Flower Ornament Scripture”, a.d. 100): --------- Hindulaisuuden ja joogan kirjassa, Patanjalin “Jooga Sutrat” (The Yoga Sutra’s of Patanjali”, v 200 e.a. ): “Jooga tapahtuu, kuin huojuvat mielen häiriöt, pyörimiset ja hyörisimet, sekä mielenkuohot tyyntyvät ja lakkaavat olemasta.” Jokainen todellisuuden hetkessä on potentiaali sisältää kaikki todellisuudesta (menneisyys ja tulevaisuus). Nykyhetki, juuri niin kuin se on, ilman tottumuksia ja täysin ajattomana, on itsevalaiseva puhtaan tietoisuuden (cit) ilmentymä (sat).” --------- Ei-dualistisen hindulaisuuden klassikossa, Shankaran “Erottelun kruununjalokivi” (The Crest Jewel of Discrimination, v. 600): “Tunne Atman – puhdas, ääretön tietoisuus, ikuisesti oleva menneisyydessä, nykyisyydessä ja tulevaisuudessa. Näin löydät rauhan.” --------- Tiibetinbuddhalaisuuden Dzogchen-tradition Rabjamin Ilmiöiden perimmäinen avaruus, (Basic Space of Phenomena, c. 1300 v.) “Mieli itsessään – siis luontaisesti ilmenevä tietoisuus – ei omaa sisältöä tai ominaisuuksia… Luontaisesti nouseva ajaton tietoisuus, joka on spontaanisti läsnä Dharmakayan syvimmässä olemuksessa (viiden aistin ylittämisen energeettinen kokemus), on vapaa käsitteellisistä ja kuvailevista yksityiskohdista.” --------- Russel Targ kirjassaan ‘Reality of ESP ‘ (2013): “Patanjali kuvasi viisi mielen mentaalista toimintoa ja teki selväksi, että meidän tulisi aina tunnistaa, missä tilassa olemme. Meidän tulisi tunnistaa erot 1) oikean ajattelun, 2 väärän ajattelun (virheet), 3) nukkumisen/unennäkemisen, 4) muistamisen ja 5) mielikuvituksen välillä. Nämä tilat korreloivat hyvin niihin kaukokatsomista häiritseviin mielen ilmiöihin, jotka meidän tulisi tunnistaa ja erotella, kun pyrimme puhtaaseen, häiriöttämään kaukokatsomiseen.”
  24. http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_future.html http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/future Kts. Samat TIME
  25. The basics are: Set you intention: What do you want to know? Be precise Write it down Repeat it several times Read it out loud to yourself Look at it before you go to sleep Then let go Trust that something will come
  26. Remove Distractions Breath Deeply (regulates your heart coherence) Quiet Down Turn your Attention Inward If you feel like it, you can meditate or focus your mind You can do this sitting, walking, lieing down, etc. No right way! What works for you
  27. Observe everything: your sensations, what you notice, what you think, what keeps coming to you, ideas, whatever Observe neutrally EVERYTHING, no judgement. If you push it away, it will come back. Let it fly for a while, it will go a way Linger with observations, try not to label / classify them immediately. Let them slowly unfold Try to feel how things differ in your mind, in your body, in your feelings. Keep a journal
  28. Interpret your intuition – your interpretation (your symbol book) Apply it to your situation Don’t get caught in a story (if I do this, then….) Make a decision – you can also apply rational analysis Keep a journal and see how you did
  29. Miksi sitten näin on? Onko kyse vain ahdasmielisistä tiedemiehistä? Huonosta tieteen mallista? Ihmisen omien ennakkoluulojen voimasta? Varmasti nämä kaikki vaikuttavat. Kyse on kuitenkin myös siitä, että emme oikeasti tiedä varmuudella, mitä intuitiossa tapahtuu. Mm. kvanttifysiikka, M-teoria tai Matti Pitkäsen Topologinen Geometrodynamiikka tarjoavat mahdollisia malleja sille, mistä voisi olla kyse. Tieteeltä puuttuu kuitenkin ns. Yhtenäisteoria siitä, mitä intuitiossa tai yleensä ihmisen ajattelussa tapahtuu. Ajatuksia, malleja ja orastavia teorioita on, mutta mikään niistä ei tunnu aukottomalta tai selittävän kaikkia tutkimustuloksia. Eli tämä on usein tieteen alueella jarru: vaikka tutkimustuloksia löytyy, niin jos emme osaa selittää niitä, on vaikea hyväksyä ilmiötä laajemmin. Tämä ei tarkoita, etteikö usea tieteen tekijä olisi yrittänyt mallin hahmottamasti Tässä joitain esimerkkejä: