Introduction to Behavioral Economics
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Basics of behavioral economics, biases and methods of decision architectures. This presentation is the short version and does not include the videos and images of the experiments and real life examples.
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Introduction to Behavioral Economics
- 6. LEFT RIGHT
- 8. It is the result of thinking, not the process of thinking, that appears spontaneously in consciousness. George Miller
- 9. Biases or Shortcuts • Anchoring • Availability • Representativeness • Optimism and overconfidence • Gains and Losses • Status Quo • Framing
- 10. • Anchoring The concept of anchoring draws on the tendency to attach or "anchor" our thoughts to a reference point - even though it may have no logical relevance to the decision at hand. It is an art of how you ask the question, how you set the anchor.
- 13. • Known anchoring methods –Multiple unit pricing –Purchase quantity limits –Initial price setting –Subconcious anchoring
- 14. • Availability The availability bias is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind.
- 15. • Hedonic Adaptation Limited joy makes us happier than unlimited joy
- 16. • The goal gradient effect If there is a progress we tend to finish
- 17. Bank worker or Bank worker and active in the feminist movement?
- 18. • Expectancy Effect Pattern recognition based on expectations
- 19. • Optimism and overconfidence MBA students were asked the probability to be lower than %50 of grades, only %5 expected to be below the median
- 20. • Gains and losses (endowment effect) Losing something makes you twice as miserable as gaining the same thing makes you happy. –Visualization –Framing
- 21. • Status Quo To maintain the status quo is to keep the things the way they presently are.
- 22. • Hindsight bias –Better-educated soldiers suffered more adjustment problems than did less-educated soldiers. –White privates were more eager for promotion than were Black privates.
- 23. • Change Blindness – Perceptual phenomenon that occurs when a change in a visual stimulus is introduced and the observer does not notice it.
- 24. • Regret Stay passive to remain invulnurable to regret • Poignancy Empathy for people in regret
- 25. • Framing It is an inevitable process of selective influence over the individual's perception of the meanings attributed to words or phrases
- 26. • Decision point • Transaction cost • Reminder • Intervention
- 27. • Mental Accounting The concept defined by the economist Richard Thaler that states people split up their future and current assets into separate portions that cannot be transferred. It states that people give different value to different asset groups and this determines purchasing decisions.
- 28. • Sunk cost effect The sunk cost effect is the tendency for humans to continue investing in something that clearly isn't working.
- 30. • Choice overload Many choices cause complicated computation resulting with psychological pressure. – Regret – Joint Evaluation vs Seperate Evaluation
- 31. PRIMING • Associative coherence • Repetition (direct priming) • Semantic • Response priming • Masked priming
- 32. • Associative Coherence BANANAS VOMIT
- 34. • Repetition DOG DOG DOG DOG
- 35. • Semantic priming DOG WOLF
- 37. COGNITIVE EASE • Different Reports Experiment –Taahhut VS Artan • Stocks statistics –KAR & LUNMO VS PXG & RDO • Happiness increases easier options
- 38. False Consensus Effect • There is a tendency for people to assume that their own opinions, beliefs, preferences, values, and habits are "normal" and that others also think the same way that they do.
- 39. Fundamental Attribution Error • is people's tendency to place an undue emphasis on internal characteristics to explain someone else's behavior in a given situation, rather than considering external factors.
- 40. Actor-observer bias • People tend to overemphasize the role of a situation in their behaviors and underemphasize the role of their own personalities.
- 42. BAD EVENTS • The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.
- 43. RARE EVENTS • Decision weight change from 0% to 1% is a lot higher than %50 to %51
- 44. THE PLANNING FALLACY • Unrealistically close to best-case scenarios
- 46. Prospect Theory
- 47. Prospect Theory 1. You are given $1000 a) 50% chance to win $1000 b) $500 for sure 2. You are given $2000 a) 50% chance to lose $1000 b) Lose $500 for sure
- 48. Imperfection of Prospect Theory 1. Problem a) 90% chance to win $1 million b) $50 for sure 2. Problem a) 90% chance to win $1 million b) $150,000 for sure
- 49. WELL BEING • Peak-end rule • Duration neglect • The experiencing self vs. the remembering self
- 50. Tastes and Decisions are Shaped by Memories, and the memories can be wrong
- 51. Remembering Self VS Experiencing Self
- 52. The resistance to interruption is a sign that you are having a good time
- 53. JOB SATISFACTION
- 54. HAPPINESS
- 57. EXPERIMENTING • Cause -> mediator -> effect • Pennies a day -> perception of affordability -> greater spending • Daily payment amount -> moderator • Field experiments & Lab experiments
- 58. • ANOVA Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models used to analyze the differences between group means and their associated procedures.
Notes de l'éditeur
- Bu şekilde kararları etkilemenin standart yolları; Regülatif yasaklar ve sınırlandırmalar Havuç ve sopa yöntemi, yapılması istenen davranışa ödül vermek (vergisiz satış, sübvansyon) diğerine ceza uygulamak. İyi davranış ile ilgili reklam ve bilgi vermek Yeni bir yöntem NUDGE kullanımı
- 2% of eyesight is in blind spot so the brain makes it up from previous experience
- Left eye –> right hemisphere, the word walk was displayed, the subject stood, the researcher asked why? Answer: «I need to get a drink» « I need to go to the toilete»… Left eye –> right hemisphere, violent scenes were shown, the subject said she felt nervous and blamed it to the decoration of the room
- Shortcut = heuristics
- Wheel of fortune that will top only at 10 or 65 What is your guess of the percentage of African nations in the UN? 10 -> 25% 65 -> 45% Normalde %28
- Metro Gross market
- 1. Multiple Unit Pricing Psychologists Brian Wansink, Robert Kent, and Stephen Hoch studied how multiple unit pricing increased supermarket sales. For example, “On Sale, 4 Rolls of Bathroom Tissue for $2″ vs. “On Sale, $0.50/roll” In this particular experiment, the multiple unit pricing performed 40% better than the single unit pricing, even though the sale value is exactly the same. The brain uses the the number four as the anchor. 2. Purchase Quantity Limits In another study by Wansink, Kent, and Hoch looked at how setting purchase quantity limits affect buying behavior. We’ve all seen the sign before, there’s something on sale with a sign reading “Limit 12 Per Customer.” Most people conclude this limit is there to protect the store from being wiped out of the sale item of overly-eager bargain hunters. However, this limit serves a very different purpose. Wansink, Kent, and Hoch designed a field study using end-aisle displays to advertise Cambell’s soups for $0.79 per can. A sign was then placed on the display stating “Limit of 12 per person.” The results show that purchase limits can increase sales; shoppers who bought soup from the display with no limit purchased an average of 3.3 cans of soup, whereas buyers with limits of 12 purchased an average of 7 cans of soup. The brain anchors with the number 12 and adjusts downward. 3. Initial Price Setting Say you’re buying a used car, the initial price offered for a used car sets the standard for the rest of the negotiation, regardless of the legitimacy of the initial price. This way any price lower than the initial anchor price seem more reasonable, even if they are still higher than what the car is really worth. If the salesman can get the customer anchored on the higher price the consumer will estimate that the lower price is a good deal. 4. Subconcious anchoring Ultimatom game: one offerer, one decision maker One room with business items; leather portfolio, fountain pen, briefcase… %50 split the money evenly Second room with netural items; backpack, wooden pencil, cardboard box… %100 split the money evenly Fill out a questionaire and reward cookies. The group primed with cleaning products smell, cleaned up themselves three times more than the others.
- Homicides are more available than suicides, and so people tend to believe, wrongly, that more people die from homicide. A third more people die at their own hands than at other people’s
- Representativeness Linda is 31 years old, single. She majored in philosophy. She was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Bank worker? Bank worker and active in the feminist movement? %85 of doctoral decision-science in Stanford rated the second more
- Bugün 10$ mı vereyim haftaya 11$ mı dendiğinde çoğunluk bugünü istiyor. 50 hafta sonra 100 dolar mı vereyim 51 hafta sonra 110 doları mı vereyim dediğinde 110 doları tercih ediyorlar. Visualization İnsanların güdülerine (koku-dokunma-görme-duyma) hitap eden cezbedici şeyler olursa, yani ona şimdi sahip olduğunu hissettiren şeyler, örneğin piyangodan 10 milyon dolar kazanmış birinin resmi ve yaptıkları, insan kendi kazanmış gibi hissedip piyango alıyor. Framing Bir ürünü haftaya almak yerine şimdi almak için ekstra X TL ödeniyor. Bir ürünü bugün almak yerine haftaya alırsan Y TL indirim yapılıyor. Y>X oluyor.
- Hangi bilgiyi ilk görürse o doğru geliyor, 1949 Sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkrrVozZR2c
- «Of one hundred patients who have this operation, ninety are alive after five years» «Of one hundred patients who have this operation, ten are dead after five years»
- Transaction cost (işi zorlaştırmak, mesela emin misiniz diye sorulması) Reminder (hatırlatma SMSi gönderme) Intervention (Klimanın otomatik kapanması)
- A-) Müzikal için 50 dolara bilet alıyorsun. Müzikal girişinde yiyecek bir şeyler alırken bileti kaybediyorsun. B-) Müzikale gitmek için bilet alacaksın ve gişeye gidiyorsun, bilet için ayırdığın 50 doları cebinden düşürdüğünü fark ediyorsun. B senaryosundakiler bilet alırken, A senaryosundakiler bilet almıyor. Different Source, Different Purpose Another aspect of mental accounting is that people also treat money differently depending on its source. For example, people tend to spend a lot more "found" money, such as tax returns and work bonuses and gifts, compared to a similar amount of money that is normally expected, such as from their paychecks. This represents another instance of how mental accounting can cause illogical use of money.
- Bir maç için hediye biletiniz olsa ama o gün kar fırtınası olsa maça gitmezsiniz. Ama parayla bilet almışsanız ve kar fırtınası olsa maça gidersiniz. Prepay olduğu zaman kullanırsınız.
- 1999’da spor salonunda yapılan bir araştırma;
- Fast process; Call-center %6-12 faster than those without windows Enjoy Time; People spent %40 more time in skylight shops than lit only by electricity Health; Bright rooms take less painkillers after surgery, heart-attack patients recovered faster Blue light is effective, use shining blue light in the morning, greens and reds at night The economist intelligent life may
- From 0% to 5% change is possibility effect From 95% to 100% change is certainty effect
- Could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases; reference class forecasting
- 300 years valid Bernoulli utility function Why poor people buy insurance and why richer people sell it to them
- Prospect theory İçin b seçiliyor İçin a seçiliyor tendency for investors to hold on to losing stocks for too long and sell winning stocks too soon.
- Disappointment and regret
- The global retrospective rating was well predicted by the average of the level of pain reported at the worst moment of the experience and at its end. The duration of the procedure had no effect on the ratings of total pain. Experiencing Self: Does it hurt now Remembering Self: How was it, on the whole?
- The global retrospective rating was well predicted by the average of the level of pain reported at the worst moment of the experience and at its end. The duration of the procedure had no effect on the ratings of total pain. Experiencing Self: Does it hurt now Remembering Self: How was it, on the whole?
- The goals that people set for themselves are so important to what they do and how they feel about it that an exlusive focus on experienced well being is not tenable. Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.
- Children cry not to leave the park. Flow: a state that some artists experience in their creative moments and that many other people achieve when entralled by a film, a book… interruptions are not welcome in any of these situations.
- Mood at work is largely unaffected by the factors that influence general job satisfaction, including benefits and status. More important are situational factors such as an opportunity to socialize with coworkers, exposure to loud noise, time pressure, the immediate presence of a boss (the only thing that was worse than being alone).
- Priming students with the idea of wealth reduces the pleasure their face expresses as they eat a bar of chocolate.
- Affective forecasting: divorce rate is high and the incidence of marital disappointment is even higher but they say it won’t happen to them So should governments support «not marrying»?
- Consider the investment that should be made in the treatment of various medical conditions, including blindness, deafness, or kidney failure. Should the investments be determined by how much people fear these conditions? Or the real suffering that patients actually experience? Or by the sacrifices that they would be willing to make to achieve that relief?
- Örneğin para harcama miktarı 1-10 arası değişsin. 3 tane koşul olsun. Her koşulda 2 kişi olsun.