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Similaire à World Energy Outlook 2010 (20)
World Energy Outlook 2010
- 2. The context:
a time of unprecedented uncertainty
The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over –
but is the recovery sustainable?
Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price –
what does this mean for future price movements?
Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution –
will it herald a golden era for gas?
Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances –
but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented?
China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy
future – where will their policy decisions lead us?
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 3. Recent policy commitments,
if implemented, would make a difference
World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
18 000
Mtoe
Rest of world
16 000 China
14 000 OECD
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China,
where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 4. Emerging economies dominate
the growth in demand for all fuels
Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035
OECD
Coal
China
Oil Rest of world
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables
- 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500
Mtoe
Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries,
while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 5. Fossil-
Fossil-fuel subsidies are distorting
price signals
Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by country, 2009
70
Electricity
Billion dollars
(generated from
60 fossil fuels)
Gas
50
Oil
Coal
40
30
20
10
0
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
South Africa
Bangladesh
Kazakhstan
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Argentina
Thailand
Pakistan
Malaysia
Mexico
Ukraine
Algeria
Kuwait
Russia
Egypt
China
India
Qatar
Libya
UAE
Iran
Iraq
Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from
$558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 6. Booming demand for mobility in the
emerging economies drives up oil use
Passenger vehicles in the New Policies Scenario
1 600
Million
China
1 400 Other non-OECD
1 200 United States
1 000 Other OECD
800
600
400
200
0
1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035
The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other
emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 7. Oil production becomes less crude
World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
100
mb/d
Unconventional oil
80 Natural gas liquids
Crude oil - fields yet
60 to be developed or found
Crude oil – currently
40 producing fields
Total crude oil
20
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of
natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 8. More oil from fewer producers
Incremental oil production by key country in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
Saudi Arabia OPEC
Iraq
Non-OPEC
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Canada
Venezuela
UAE
Kuwait
Iran
Qatar
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
mb/d
Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC’s market share from
41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 9. A golden age for gas?
Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs
> demand rises by 44% to 2035, led by China & Middle East
Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in global
supply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging
Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly
The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from
oil-price indexation, notably in Europe
Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out
renewables & coal in power generation
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 10. Coal remains the backbone of global
electricity generation
Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
12 000
TWh
China
10 000 India
Other non-OECD
8 000
OECD
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially
China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 11. Renewables enter the mainstream….
Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
OECD Pacific 2008
Africa 2035
India
Brazil
China
United States
European Union
0 100 200 300 400
Mtoe
The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector
where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 12. ….but only if there is enough
government support
Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario
210
Billion dollars (2009)
Biofuels
180
Renewables-based electricity
150
120
n
90
60
30
0
2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Government support remains the key driver – rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion
in 2035 – but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 13. China becomes the market leader
in low-carbon technologies
low-
China’s share of cumulative global additions to 2035 for selected technologies
30%
Capacity additions
105 GW
Passenger car sales
335 GW
20%
8.5 million
85 GW vehicles
h l
10%
0%
Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric &
plug-in hybrids
Given the sheer scale of China’s market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy
technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 14. Caspian energy riches could enhance
global energy security
Caspian oil & gas outlook in the New Policies Scenario
6 350
bcm
mb/d
5 300
250
4
200
3
150
2
100
1
50
0 0
2000 2009 2020 2035 2000 2009 2020 2035
Oil net exports Inland oil consumption Gas net exports Inland gas consumption
Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035,
while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 15. The 450 Scenario:
a roadmap from 3.5°C to 2°C
3.5° 2°
The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with
limiting the increase in temperature to 2°C
Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord
pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter
The failure of the Copenhagen Accord pledges:
pledges
> As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the
level of abatement pledged to 2020
> As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2° C goal has
increased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 16. Achieving the 2°C goal will require rapid
2°
decarbonisation of global energy
Average annual change in CO2 intensity in the 450 scenario
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035
0%
-1%
-2%
2%
-3%
-4%
A four-fold
increase needed
-5%
-6%
Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020
& almost four times faster in 2020-2035
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 17. A fundamental change is needed
in power generation
Share of world electricity generation by type and scenario
100%
Low-carbon generation in the NPS
80% Additional low-carbon generation
in the 450 Scenario
60% Fossil-fuel fired generation
g
in the 450 Scenario
40%
20%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Low-carbon technologies account for over three-quarters of global power generation by 2035
in the 450 Scenario, a four-fold increase on today
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 18. … and also in transport
Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario
Million 70 Plug-in hybrids
60 Electric vehicles
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 39% of new sales by 2035, making a big contribution
to emissions abatement – China becomes the top advanced car manufacturer
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 19. Climate policies can improve oil security
World oil demand by scenario
100 New Policies Scenario
mb/d
96 450 Scenario
92
88
84
80
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil demand peaks at 88 mb/d before 2020 & falls to 81 mb/d in 2035, with a plunge in
OECD demand more than offsetting continuing growth in non-OECD demand
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 20. Number of people without access to electricity
(million)
1.4 billion people lack access to electricity – achieving universal modern energy
access requires investment of only $36 billion per year over the next two decades
© OECD/IEA 2010
- 21. Concluding remarks
Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well
short of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future
Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of achieving
the 2°C goal & made it less likely to happen
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring
lower international prices than would otherwise be the case
Stronger penetration of natural gas can have profound
implications for energy markets and environment
Renewables are entering the mainstream, but long-term
support is needed to boost their competitiveness
Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies,
is a crucial measure to cut energy demand
© OECD/IEA 2010