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Lean estimation and planning workshop
- 1. LEAN ESTIMATION & PLANNING IANCARROLL.COM Image credit: Trish2, http://trish2.deviantart.com/art/Crystal-Ball-1-48409990 @Caza_no7
- 2. IANCARROL L.COM ABOUT ME: I’m a Transformation Ninja, not an Agile Coach or a Project Manager I run a Code Club every Tuesday afternoon teaching 9-11yr old kids how to code Software Development is my life but I don’t code any more
- 3. LEAN ESTIMATION & PLANNING IANCARROLL.COM Image credit: Trish2, http://trish2.deviantart.com/art/Crystal-Ball-1-48409990 @Caza_no7
- 4. PART 1
- 5. CONVERSATION #1 How long will it take?
- 6. CONVERSATION #1 How long will it take?
- 7. CONVERSATION #1 How long will it take?
- 8. CONVERSATION #2 THE MANAGER THE DEVELOPER Vs How much will it cost?
- 10. Expected benefit? £ ______.__
- 11. Expected benefit? £ ______.__ Maximum investment? £ _____.__ ROI
- 12. Maximum investment? £ _____.__ 1 x PM 4 x Dev 1 x BA 1 x QA 1 x UX 1 x PM 1 x TL 12 x Dev 2 x BA 2 x QA 1 x UX 1 x DBA 2 x Dev 1 x BA/QA £300/day/person 55 weeks 20 weeks 8 weeks 10 Wks 20 Wks 30 Wks 40 Wks 50 Wks 60 Wks 70 Wks Window of opportunity
- 13. HOW MUCH WILL IT COST? HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE? WHAT IS IT?
- 14. PART 2
- 15. 1 Business Vision 2 Customer Experience 3 Technical Vision 4 Story Writing 5 Sizing 6 Planning INCEPTION / DISCOVERY
- 16. INCEPTION OUTPUT FEATURE 1 FEATURE 2 FEATURE 3 FEATURE 4 FEATURE 5 FEATURE 6 R5 R4 R3 R2 R1
- 17. STORY SIZING SMALL MEDIUM LARGE X-LARGE
- 18. VELOCITY ESTIMATION 2 WEEKS 8 2 WEEKS 7 2 WEEKS 9 2 WEEKS 8 2 WEEKS 9 2 WEEKS 9 2 WEEKS 7 2 10 WEEKS 2 13 WEEKS 2 WEEKS 9 ~9pts per 2 weeks, 116pts total, how long? SMALL (1) MEDIUM (2) LARGE (4) X-LARGE (8)
- 19. Maximum investment? £ _____.__ 1 x PM 4 x Dev 1 x BA 1 x QA 1 x UX 1 x PM 1 x TL 12 x Dev 2 x BA 2 x QA 1 x UX 1 x DBA 2 x Dev 1 x BA/QA £300/day/person 55 weeks 20 weeks 8 weeks 10 Wks 20 Wks 30 Wks 40 Wks 50 Wks 60 Wks 70 Wks Window of opportunity Post inception view
- 20. GO OR NO GO?
- 21. TO DO DOING DONE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 # Cards Iteration # (1 week iterations) Total Scope Velocity Estimated Forecast
- 22. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total Scope s-curve
- 23. VARIATION (RISK)
- 24. The Coin Game Worker Manager Worker Manager Manager Worker Manager Worker 2 3 Customer 1 4
- 25. #NoEstimates
- 26. SUMMARY IANCARROLL .COM OUTPUT VS OUTCOME @Caza_no7
Notes de l'éditeur
- First – a bit about me! You will find lots of free stuff on my blog http://iancarroll.com Community, Community, Community
- About this talk There are many ways to approach estimation & planning Here’s how I do it Not all of this might be applicable to your situation But hopefully you can find some takeaways I am hoping for some audience participation so please don’t be afraid to take a stab at answering questions that I throw out to you from time to time.
- *** AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION *** Script: MANAGER: I need a cost estimate on your project. DEVELOPER: I have no idea I haven’t even gathered the user requirements. MANAGER: Don’t worry I won’t hold you to the estimate. DEVELOPER: Yes you will. You will put it in the plan, forget we had this conversation, and fire me when I go over budget. MANAGER: Give me a number or I’ll fire you right now. DEVELOPER: ok, it will cost ten million pounds. MANAGER: That’s too high.
- Don’t be constrained by the typical conversation thread Explore beyond the boundaries of “How much will it cost”
- Objective of the conversation: to understand the ROI What is benefit? ***ASK THE AUDIENCE*** Who’s working on a project with no apparent biz case? Basically, your boss is asking you to write their business case for them ***ASK THE AUDIENCE*** what other forms of benefit apart from £££ Reg Compliance, Cost saving, Reputational, Public Sector?
- Objective of the conversation: to understand the ROI What is benefit? ***ASK THE AUDIENCE*** Who’s working on a project with no apparent biz case? Basically, your boss is asking you to write their business case for them ***ASK THE AUDIENCE*** what other forms of benefit apart from £££ Reg Compliance, Cost saving, Reputational, Public Sector?
- Does each option have the right capabilities? What does the team ramp up profile look like? Different day rates for different roles? What is the window of opportunity? Are you constrained by a deadline?
- Objective of the inception is to discover just enough to get going NOT TO DEFINE EVERYTHING UPFRONT
- Out of an inception you should have an initial story list This will most definitely change as you iterate through delivery.
- Size, not estimate! Get the team to separate out the stories into relative sizes.
- Cover up the sizing Get the team to pick randomly from the piles of cards. The objective is to guess for each two week period which stories they think they can complete. Don’t worry about dependencies at this point. After repeating the exercise many times they will get an average velocity TIP: Keep the points system within the team. I’ve found it a dangerous currency when it get’s out of the team I use 1, 2, 4, and 8 as point sizes. Anything bigger than an eight should be broken down. If you find most of your stories are 4’s or 8’s then break them down further. Ideally you should have the majority of your stories as mediums. From this you can produce a linear burn-up chart (see later for guidance on how this should be temporarily used for wet finger in the air planning only!)
- Does it still fit?
- Burn-up not working out so well – what are your options for fixing velocity? Remove impediments, reduce scope, change the delivery date, add more people? Watch out for focusing on velocity instead of building the right thing! Delete the planned velocity once you get empirical data and use forecasts instead Output vs Outcome tracking Review the biz case weekly! Fold, pivot, double down
- Most deliveries experience the s-curve, or sometimes referred to as the z-curve. Factor this into your planning.
- It doesn’t matter what you estimate if you don’t attack variation Tackling sources of variation is the most important aspect of planning for me.
- Demonstrates common sources of variation ***AUDIENCE*** - what other sources of variation exist on a software delivery endeavour?
- Why not make the work fit a 5 day timebox? Then do the 3 day challenge Predictability!!! Credit: Kevin Rutherford