The Social Dimensions of Climate Change

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Reconciling climate change and development

The Washington Center

Washington, DC | 6 December 2010

Presentation by Carina Bachofen
carina.bachofen@gmail.com

PURPOSE of today’s lecture

To demonstrate WHY a social
dimensions of climate change
perspective contributes to a more
holistic analysis of climate change
impacts on human and social
systems

To understand HOW this
perspective can inform sustainable
development interventions

The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center
Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010

SCOPE of today’s lecture

๏ What are the social dimensions of
climate change?

๏ Understanding vulnerability and
resilience

๏ Complex social responses to climate
change and the link to development

๏ Importance of governance

๏ Devising climate-resilient
development policies at Cancun and
beyond


Climate Change: An assessment

Unequivocal means that climate
change is real and undeniable

Accelerating means that the
effect is getting worse

“Very Likely” Anthropogenic
implies a probability of more
than 90% that it is human
induced and not the result of
natural causes


Climate Change: human contribution

Power
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Land use
Agriculture
Waste
Other energy

Climate Change and Development
An additional stress on an already stressed system


IPCC projected natural impacts

Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to
unique systems and biodiversity, increase in ﬂooding and storm surges

complex social responses
Loss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conﬂict; damage to infrastructure;
decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts

equity
Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations

human rights and other implications

Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination;
property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children

Vulnerability
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change
and variation in which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY (IPCC 2007a, p21)


Exposure to Risk
Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change
and variation to which a system is subjected, such as:

๏Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral)
๏Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells)
๏Reduced agricultural productivity
๏Increased water insecurity
๏Increased health risk
๏Large-scale singularities
๏Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)


Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk Exposure to Risk
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Low income Middle income High income

Source: World Bank 2008


Sensitivity

Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different
experiences of climate change impacts:
๏ Geographic context

๏ Dependence on the environment
for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter
and medicine
๏ Asset and resource deﬁciency
๏ Governance / political economy
issues
๏ Access to information, decision making and
justice


Sensitivity
Who are vulnerable?

๏ Women
๏ Indigenous Peoples
๏ The urban poor
๏ Inhabitants of small island
states
๏ Vulnerability is not a uniform
taxonomy


Sensitivity

Climate change will exert an additional stress on an already
sensitive system

90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income
30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is
malnourished
70% of the people who live in extreme poverty are women and girls


Adaptive Capacity

Strengthening adaptive capacity by building assets, capital and resources

๏ Human
๏ Social and cultural
๏ Natural
๏ Physical
๏ Financial
๏ Research and Innovation


Resilience

Resilience occurs where adaptive
capacity is strong, inequalities are
addressed, and exposure minimized.
It reﬂects the ability to deal with
change and continue to develop.


Complex social response: Loss of livelihoods

๏ Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and
climate-sensitive

๏ 2.6bn people are dependent on agriculture

๏ In periods of stress they draw down on a variety of assets
and resources leaving them further exposed to the next
risk.


Complex social response: Health and fatalities

๏ Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow
fever are sensitive to temperature and precipitation
patterns. Today, approximately 40% of the world’s
population is at risk from malaria; this is projected to rise
to 80 % by 2080.

๏ Ill-health reduces productivity and perpetuates poverty;
ﬁnancial resources are increasingly being stretched by
climate-related disasters and outbreaks.


Complex social response: Migration and displacement

๏ By 2050, up to 200 million people may be permanently
displaced due to climate change (IPCC)

๏ Global temperature increases of 3–4°C could result in 330
million people being permanently or temporarily displaced as
a result of ﬂooding (UNDP)

๏ Migration: result of failed adaptation or legitimate coping
strategy?


Increased incidence of violent conﬂict

๏ Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens
the conditions for internal conﬂict, sows the seeds of
instability in already volatile regions, and increases the
likelihood of failed states.


Damage to infrastructure and utilities

๏ Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and
infrastructure

๏ Public utilities can be severely undermined with
impacts on long-term development


Where are we now?

Lead (1) - Shaping policy
responses:
From Kyoto to Cancun
Climate building blocks


Kyoto
Missed opportunities and failed promises
A new beginning in Bali
Changing our perspective
All roads lead to Copenhagen
Cancun and beyond


The Building Blocks

๏ Mitigation
๏ Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and
Degradation (REDD)
๏ Adaptation
๏ Technology
๏ Finance


Renewable Energy: Co-beneﬁts

๏ GHG Reductions

๏ Economic returns for those who innovate

๏ Employment and local development

๏ Increased security of supply

๏ Reduced emissions of other pollutants and
health beneﬁts


Adaptation

๏ Planned versus
autonomous adaptation

๏ First Generation

๏ Second Generation


Technology

๏ Research and innovation

๏ Investment and political will

๏ Development and deployment

๏ Access and supporting structures


Finance

Estimates put the cost of climate change at between
$4bn and $109bn per year (Stern 2006 / UNDP 2007)

๏How much is required?
๏New and additional?

๏How to generate funding?

๏How to disburse / target
funding?


Finance

CDM and Carbon Offset Markets
Auctioning of Emissions Rights
Emissions Cap and Trade
Tax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax)
GHG Levy
Aviation / Shipping tax
General taxes and speciﬁc funds
Carbon Taxes
GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1%)
Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP)

Source: How will the world ﬁnance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009


Governance
improved policies, processes and outcomes

“The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not
invented a politics to go with the concept”.
James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland Commission


Scales and Principles
Vulnerable communities are least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with the
Global:
consequences of climate change.
UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali Roadmap

Regional:
EU and other initiatives

National:
Policies at the state level

Local / Sub-national:
Initiatives at provincial, community and household level


The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Concluding thoughts

Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development.

Are we ready for those changes?


Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy:

CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

EQUITY INEQUITY

RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY


What can you do?

Lead (2) - The Four Cs:
Citizen
Consumer
Communicator
Change Agent


Thank you!

carina.bachofen@gmail.com


The Social Dimensions of Climate Change

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