The real reason for climate change and what is driving the changes. No model is any batter then the predictive results, the validation is therefore very easy to determine.

1. GLOBAL
WARMING
aka Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Fact or Fiction: Do
we need to Control1

2. Contents
• Part One
– What makes the Climate?
• Part Two
– Environmentalist View of the World
• Part Two
– What is Global Warming
• Part Three
– Facts on CO2 and Temperature
• Part Four
– Forecasting Temperature from CO2
• Part Five
– Why this is a serious issue
• Discussions
Prepared By:
David Pristash, Consultant
Brecksville, Ohio 44141
Cell: 216.272.4583
Email: David.Pristash@gmail.com
2

3. Definitive Proof of Global
Warming
Definitive Proof of Global
Warming

4. PART ONE
What makes the Climate?

5. The Source of our Climate

6. The Atmosphere
Image from Wikipedia “Atmosphere of Earth” Author of
image Hasting AtmosphCirc2.png July, 2011
Composition of Earths'
Atmosphere with Water
Gas Percent ppmv
Nitrogen (N2) 77.762673% 777,626.730
Oxygen (O2) 20.858480% 208,584.802
Argon (Ar) 0.928194% 9,281.944
Water vapor (H2O) 0.408326% 4,083.259
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 0.039637% 396.375
Neon (Ne) 0.001793% 17.927
Helium (He) 0.000510% 5.099
Methane (CH4) 0.000169% 1.693
Krypton (Kr) 0.000110% 1.096
Hydrogen (H2) 0.000054% 0.538
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 0.000030% 0.299
Carbon monoxide (CO) 0.000010% 0.100
Trace Gases: 0.000014% 0.139
The Earths atmosphere is estimated to be 5,000,000,000 mmt
(5.0 X 1015
metric tons) therefore “A” ppm * 5,000 = “B” mmt

8. Source Wikipedia
“Greenhouse Gas”
July, 2011

9. 4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.8
9
This is very
questionable
Where is the
Water?

10. Water Vapor The Major Greenhouse Gas
• Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage
of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and
66% for clear sky conditions
• And between 66% and 85% when including
clouds and this is perhaps the biggest unknown
in the models..
• Water vapor in the atmosphere raises the earths
surface temperature about:
– 33o
C or from -18o
/-19o
C to 14o
/15o
C
– 59o
F or from -1o
/0o
F to 57o
/58o
F
Source Wikipedia “Greenhouse Gas” July, 2011

11. Carbon Cycle This section shows a
yearly flow into the
ocean of 92 gt and
releases of 90 gt for a net
reduction of 2 gt carbon.
This section shows a
yearly flow into the
vegetation of 121 gt
and releases of 120 gt
for a net reduction of
1 gt of carbon.
This is Carbon not Carbon Dioxide both
terms are used and it can be confusing.

12. CO2 a Requirement of Photosynthesis
• There is evidence that a higher concentration
of atmospheric CO2 speeds up plant growth.
This effect was enhanced by:
– Higher temperatures
– Higher lighting levels
– Higher supporting water and nutrients
• Growth shown to be over 300% higher in
some cases
Equation released for open use by author ZooFan.
Photo from Dan Digs – dandigs.com
July, 2011

13. 13
Environmentalist View of the
World
PART
TWO

14. Global Warming,
“The Problem”
• We have been told the Earth is
warming from a CO2 build up in the
atmosphere, trapping in heat.
• We have also been told this CO2
increase is the result of burning
fossil fuels.
• Are these True or False? 14

15. The Answer to Warming is “Yes”
• The world has been in this warming trend for
well over 15,000 years, since the last ice
age, in fact.
• As a result the world average temperature
is now about 4
o
F warmer then back then but
still way below the historical average. 15

16. The Answer to CO2 Increasing is
“Yes”
• The use of carbon based fuels especially
since 1850 has probably increased the level
of CO2 in the atmosphere
• As a result CO2 levels have gone from 280
ppm to almost 400 ppm today

17. The IPCC Claims:
• CO2 buildup in the atmosphere is the cause
of large projected temperature increases
• They have computer models that prove this
is true and there is a consensus of scientists
that support this belief
• This will cause catastrophic climate changes
that will cause much suffering
• We must stop putting CO2 in the atmosphere
before this happens

18. From the newscientist.com 29 April 2009 by Catherine Brahic
This is Graphic of the IPCC Models

19. Basics of Climate Models
• Net Climate Forcing
– Increase in temperature (From more CO2)
– C02 trapping IR and transferring it to H20
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
– Heat transfer out of the system (up & down)
– H20 radiating heat up out of the atmosphere
– H20 radiating heat down into the oceans
• Rate of heat transfer to the deep ocean
– How much mass is in the system
– Movement of heat down warming the ocean

20. Global Climate
Models’
• Global Climate Models (GCM) are very complex
mathematical constructs used to try and predict
future climate
• They requires a solid understanding of all the
physical and energy flows in the biosphere
• They are based on developing equations for
“everything” that effects heat movement and then
solving those equations
• This requires that the world from the deepest
ocean to the top of the atmosphere be placed into
boxes or cells --- called a mesh
• To properly model the climate we need to look
down 10 miles and up at least 60 miles which
comprises a volume of 13.8 billion cubic miles
• If we used a resolution that was a ¼ mile that
would mean 8.832 Trillion cubes.
This picture is in the
Public Doman the source
is NOAA

21. Climate Model Problem Areas
Hadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses a mesh based on 3.75
longitude and 2.5 degrees latitude (255 miles by 449 miles), giving a grid of
96 by 73 points; and has 19 levels in the vertical.
This results in about 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point has
four variables (u,v, T, Q), though a full count would give more if clouds soil
levels and other things were considered. The next two sides shows this in
approximate scale. The following are areas that need work.
• Mesh Size x, y, z (typical 100 km X 100 km X 1 km)
• Convection and water vapor too small for mesh
• Clouds too small for mesh
• Precipitation too small for mesh
• Upper air (troposphere) warming issues (mesh or theory)
• Seasonal variability not well predicted (mesh or theory)
• Elevation gives predictive problems to temperature (mesh or theory)
• North South hemisphere differences – why?

22. Sample of GCM Model
Image from Hadley Center,
August, 2007

23. Problems with the Models
• The models mostly assume a static or “base” world temperature with
“change” from anthropogenic causes.
• The climate models were started to look at items that trace
directly to man, anthropogenic, for root cause with only some
thought given to natural causes.
• Key assumptions used such a the life of CO2 in the atmosphere have
little scientific support.
• The model element size, the mesh, is way too large to properly
consider “key” climate factors such as “clouds.”
• Water in the atmosphere and the resulting movement in (evaporation)
and out (rain) and the creation of clouds is the most important part of
understanding the concept of GW.
This area which is the least understood is the most important.
• The models appear to have a bias toward a runaway “positive
feedback” situation from CO2 that is not supported by historic records.

24. • Is the increase in CO2 the “main” reason
the planet is warming?
• For this to be TRUE we must have both
– High correlation (move together) &
– Cause and Effect (one precedes the other)
• Are both of these true?
The Question?

25. CO2 Seems to follow Temperature
Frank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnology
This composite graph of actual data from all major temperature peaks of the Antarctic vostok data
confirms the well known temperature-CO2 relation with ….
Temperature as a driver of CO2.

26. CO2
Concentration
Parts per Million
By Volume
Celcius
Temperature
change
“NO” Statistical Correlation between CO2
Concentrations and Temperature
SPPI April 09 2009 CO2 Report Page 10

27. This Chart shows three values
for the effect on temperature
on climate on the doubling of
the concentration of CO2
Lindzen uses +.64 C as a
radiative forcing value
Kondratjew & Moskalenko
show +.87 C as a radiative
forcing value
Charnock & Shine use +1.45
C as a radiative forcing value
We are at 400 ppm so you can
see that if Lindzen is correct
than almost all of the CO2
effect has already occurred.
Climate Sensitivity a Key Issue

28. Historic Temperature and CO2
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
Millions of Years from Present
CO2inppm
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
TempinC
CO2 TEMPERATURE LINDZEN CHARNOCK
Climate Sensitivity, Not what the
IPCC Claims it is!
Raw data CO2 & Temperature from Don J. Easterbrook, December, 2009
Chart & Climate Model David Pristash July, 1011
This Chart shows actual historic
plots of CO2 (Black) and
Temperature (Blue).
The Yellow plot shows a
Temperature Plot based on a
Lindzen’s .64o
C Radiative
Forcing value. The Red plot is
based on Charnock’s 1.46o
C
Radiative Forcing value.
The IPCC says it is between 2.0o
and 4.5o
C for a doubling of CO2.
Neither plot follow the Blue plot.

29. PART THREE
Facts on CO2 and
Temperature

30. • What is the temperature of the plant?
• Does it very naturally?
• Are there cyclical patterns?
Questions on Temperature

31. • Historical World Mean (WM) Temperature
Range
– Low range for WM 11
o
/12
o
C, 51.8
o
/53.6
o
F
– High range for WM 22
o
/23
o
C, 71.6
o
/73.4
o
F
• Present Temperature
– 100 year base for WM is 13.9
o
C, 57.0
o
F
– Current estimate of WM is14.3
o
C, 57.7
o
F
Temperature Facts

32. Historically it looks like this.
And here is where we are …
4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.8
Millions of Years Ago
32

33. More Currently We Have
Raw data from Don J. Easterbrook December, 2009
Chart David Pristash April, 1011
Temperatures on the
Greenland Ice Cap
from the End of Last
Ice Age
Temperature Greenland
Years Before Present
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20,000 -17,500 -15,000 -12,500 -10,000 -7,500 -5,000 -2,500 0
DegreesC
Temperatures Changes
over the last 12,500
years

34. How is the Worlds Temperature
even Determined?
• First a Base is established
• Then Temperatures are measured as an Anomaly –
above and below
• Plots are generated showing deviation from the
base.
• The calculation of the “base” is critical to
determining the Anomaly
• One of the points of contention is the methods
being used to collect temperature data.

35. Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office Base 13.9 degrees C
shown on these charts as 0 degrees

36. More proof of global warming from NOAA?
How do we explain this? A lot more on this later.

37. World Mean Temperature in Kelvin
286
286
286
287
287
287
287
287
288
288
288
288
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and
NOAA April, 2013

38. Same Information Different Format
• Temperature in degrees Celsius – C
– 0o
C is the point where water freezes
• Temperature in degrees Kelvin – K
– 0o
K is absolute zero
– 1o
K is 1.8o
Fahrenheit
– 1o
K is 1.0o
Celsius

39. Chart from Data (monthly)
downloaded from NASA and
NOAA April, 2013
CO2 goes from ~280 ppm in
1880 to about 400 ppm today ---
for an increase of 42.9%
The Earths’ temperature has been
estimated to have risen from
~280o
K in 1880 to 287.7o
K
today for an increase of 0.13%
Considering the difficulty in
even accurately measuring the
earths temperature --- one
wonders how this GW issue can
get so much traction.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa NOAA
& Global Mean Temperature NASA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
ppmCO2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
TemperatureK
CO2 Average CO2 Temperature Average T Mean Low Mean High

40. PART FOUR
Forecasting Temperature
from CO2 levels

41. Temperature Model based on Trends
• Short cycle ~70 years
• Long cycle ~1000 years
• Small CO2 component
• Trends shown on next side
• The plots from this model match actual
temperatures as reported by NASA very
closely, especially the current ones

42. Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA
Trends by David Pristash April, 2013
Global Mean Temperature From NASA
and Developed Trend Models
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
2125
2150
2175
2200
DegreesCelsius
Temperature NASA Trend Base Trend Short Trend CO2 Trend Forecast
The Yellow Line is
the NASA
Temperatures
The Black Line is
the Long trend
The Blue Line is the
Short Trend
The Brown Line is
the CO2 Component
The Orange Line is
the sum of the three

43. Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA
Trend by David Pristash April, 2013
Trend Verses IPCC
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
DegreesC
NASA Monthly Temperature Trend Forecast IPCC Forecast
Zooming in to see
more detail and
adding the IPCC
projection (Red
Line) to the
previous Chart we
have a good picture
of the current
situation

44. Detail of Trend Verses IPCC
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TemperatureC
NASA Temperature Trend Forecast IPCC Forecast
Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAA
Trend by David Pristash April, 2013
Zooming in even
closer we can see
the NASA
temperature trend
seems to be pulling
away from the
IPCC projection.
Further the NASA
temperature plot
appears to be
following that of
the Model
developed here

45. Chart from Data (monthly)
downloaded from NASA and
NOAA
Trends by David Pristash
April, 2013
This Chart shows the complete
model which runs from 1800 to
2200 by month.
On this chart the Dark Blue
trace is CO2 (NOAA) and the
Yellow trace is Temperature
(NASA). The Orange trace is
the plot of the Trend Model
The Red trace is the IPCC
projection based on the various
climate models.
The temperature scale on the
right was selected to encompass
the full range of “historic”
world temperatures.
Trend Analysis of Global Mean Temperature
Using Current and Historic data for Temperature & CO2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
2160
2180
2200
CO2ppm
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
TemperatureC
CO2 NOAA CO2 Trend Temperature NASA Trend Base
Trend Forecast Mean Low Mean Mean High
IPCC Forecast 2 C Limit

46. Comparison of Model and Actual
Data on an Annual Basis
Table One, Key Temperatures
Cycle Year Actual CO2 Forcast CO2 Actual Tmp. Forcast Tmp. Years
1800 1801 0.00 280.04 0.00 13.60
1880 1881 0.00 282.18 13.92 13.82
1958 1959 315.26 312.51 14.10 13.95
2012 2013 393.82 392.86 14.56 14.57
2203 2204 0.00 650.19 0.00 15.24
2900 2901 0.00 783.44 0.00 15.19
C-1 1835 1836 0.00 280.29 0.00 13.26
1872 1873 0.00 281.58 0.00 13.87 37
C-2 1902 1903 0.00 285.14 13.85 13.52 30
1940 1941 0.00 298.91 14.07 14.17 38
C-3 1967 1968 322.53 321.99 13.99 13.87 27
2007 2008 384.08 383.09 14.62 14.59 40
C-4 2034 2035 0.00 450.91 0.00 14.33 27
2072 2073 0.00 530.42 0.00 15.01 38
C-5 2102 2103 0.00 573.16 0.00 14.65 30
2138 2139 0.00 609.57 0.00 15.20 36
C-6 2170 2171 0.00 632.94 0.00 14.76 32
2204 2205 0.00 650.45 0.00 15.24 34

47. Support for Model
• Easterbrook, “Natural Cycles”
• Soon, Roberson & Roberson,
“Environmental Effects of Increased
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Paper “
• Lindzen and Choi, “On the
determination of climate feedbacks from
ERBE data”

48. • The Earth has had many major shifts in
temperature and cycles that are not tied to
what man does.
• We moved from a very cold period into a
warmer period over 15,000 years ago.
• CO2 has been at much higher levels
before mankind.
• A man made increase in CO2 will not
cause the earth to overheat.
What we Have Learned
48

49. Part Five
Why this is a Serious Issue
We Need Lots of Energy

50. How Much Energy Do We Use

51. To Convert All Coal to Wind using
actual 2005 EIA information
• Coal Plants, 221 mWh each (actual average):
– 1,502 Plants 335,892 mWh Name Plate
– Generated 235,789 mWh for 70% uptime
• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):
– 314,386 Turbines 785,964 mWh Name Plate
– Generate 235,789 mWh at 30% uptime

52. To Convert All Gasoline Vehicles
to Electric, Powered by Wind
• 250,844,644 vehicles on road in 2006 (actual):
– 138 Billion Gallons of gas used 2010 (actual)
– At 114,000 BTU per Gallon = 15.7 QUAD
• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):
– 236,000 Turbines 590,000 mWh Name Plate
– Generate 177,000 mWh at 30% uptime

53. Way Too Many Wind Turbines
• Combining the two we have:
• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):
– 550,386 Turbines 1,375,964 mWh Name Plate
– Generate 412,789 mWh at 30% uptime

54. Summary
• Temperatures are rising
• Cause and effect not
established to CO2
• Incomplete
understanding of
carbon cycle
• Climate models are not
accurate enough to use
in setting any policy
Who Stands to
Benefit (Follow the
Money):
• Government –
Income
redistribution
• GE and Al Gore
54

55. Discussion

56. Abbreviations & Sources Used
• CRU Climate Research Unit --- University of East Anglia, UK
• DOE U.S. Department of Energy
• EIA Energy Information Agency (DOE)
• EPA Environmental Protection Agency
• GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA)
• gmt billion metric tons (also gt or Gmt or bmt)
• Hadley Centre --- Part of Met Office
• IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Met Office --- UK National Weather Service
• mmt million metric tons
• NASA National Aeronautic and Space Administration
• NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• ppb parts per billion (ppbv parts per billion volume)
• ppm parts per million (ppmv parts per million volume)
• ppt parts per trillion (pptv parts per trillion volume)

57. Sources of Information
• Astrophysics http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/solar/soldata2.html
• DOE http://www.energy.gov/
• EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/
• Junk Science http://www.junkscience.com/
• NASA http://www.nasa.gov/home/
• Nature http://www.nature.com/nature/index.html
• NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
• Science and Public Policy Institute http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/
• SEED http://www.seed.slb.com/
• Surface Stations http://www.surfacestations.org/
• UN Statistics http://unstats.un.org/unsd/databases.htm
• Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
• World Energy Council http://www.worldenergy.org/
57

58. Other Sources
• Robert Ferguson, policy experience in climate change
science
• William Happer, Physics Professor at Princeton
• Frank Lansner, civil engineer
• Richard S. Lindzen professor at MIT
• Christopher Monckton, mathematician
• S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist
• Willie Soon, astrophysicist and geoscientist
• Anthony Watts, meteorologist