Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by AbacusBio Ltd.
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1. AbacusBio Limited applies science and technology to improve agriculture through genetic improvement of livestock, plants, and aquaculture as well as farm systems and environmental management. 2. The company engages farmers to provide input on breeding priorities and programs through online surveys to quantify farmers' trait preferences and values to better align breeding with user needs. 3. Case studies showed the surveys helped develop dairy selection indexes by identifying farmer-preferred traits and clusters, and placed monetary values on difficult traits in ryegrass breeding to guide breeding programs.
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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by AbacusBio Ltd.
- 1. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Make a difference to food production internationally using science & technology
- 2. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Where we work
- 3. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Applying science and technology to make a difference to agriculture Genetic Improvement Livestock Plants Aquaculture Farm Systems & Environment Application focussed Management systems Environmental management Farm management & planning Technology & Data Analytics Biological & economic scenarios Agri-tech applications System optimisation
- 4. ABACUSBIO LIMITED User participation in the formulation of trait priorities and breeding programs CCAFS Learning Platform 1 February 2019 Tim Byrne AbacusBio International Limited
- 5. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Why Create a mandate for change Prioritise R&D activities Apply monetary values to difficult traits Increase: - adoption and engagement - rates of genetic gain - rates of product development
- 6. ABACUSBIO LIMITED What (is different) Change the traditional economic approach to ranking tools for plant/ animal products Balance economic versus non-economic drivers of breeding priorities Quantify the views of farmers Provide insight into farmer segmentation (if any) and what drives it
- 7. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Method •Through an on-line survey assessment of: •Who the farmers are (demographic) •Farmer trait preferences and perceived value (1000Minds®) •“Choice patterns” (product profile) •The clustering of farmers into typologies •What is different between typologies
- 8. ABACUSBIO LIMITED • Factors that might influence peoples’ trait priorities: • Farm size • Location • Belief in quantitative approaches • Selection criteria • Services • Age • …anything that might influence preferences for traits Demographic
- 9. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade offs in 1000Minds®
- 10. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait preferences • Defining the traits • In readily known terms (more later) • Have to get direction of trait right (coffee e.g.) • Defining the trade-offs • Experienced practitioner • Taskforce/ expert panel • Pilot
- 11. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off - Coffee
- 12. ABACUSBIO LIMITED • Online/ via email • Phone/ one-on-one • Group meeting (with tabs on site) • Seamless (email link or logon page) • Leverage off existing CRM • Can be anonymous • Delivered in multiple languages Survey delivery
- 13. ABACUSBIO LIMITED The results and analysis • Trait ranking (% preference) • A priori group analysis • PCA and cluster analysis to form typologies • What features (demographic) are distinguishable between typologies • Convert preferences to valuations
- 14. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Two case studies Selection index development – Dairy industry Valuing difficult traits – Ryegrass breeding
- 15. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Breeding objective/ selection index development Dairy industry
- 16. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Driving need What traits to include in selection indexes? What should the trait weightings be? Should there be multiple indexes? Development of breeding programs
- 19. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Dairy traits – relative preference (%) Trait Average preference Mastitis 10.61 Longevity 9.72 Fertility 9.39 Mammary 8.34 Lameness 8.24 Protein yield 7.85 Type 7.49 Feed eficiency 7.46 Calving difficulty 7.30 Temperament 6.81 Milking speed 6.35 Persistency 6.33 Live weight 4.12
- 20. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Dairy traits - rank
- 22. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Production trait preferences
- 23. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Functional trait preference
- 24. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Type trait preferences
- 25. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Selection index results
- 26. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Difficult to value traits Ryegrass breeding
- 27. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Driving need Monetary values on economically difficult traits Relative weightings to apply in plant selection? Factors influencing farmers decisions Development of breeding programs
- 28. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Value of yield • Across the four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, winter) • Expressed in terms of its equivalent in tonnes of grain
- 29. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off - value of yield
- 30. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Yield priorities High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Spring 7% 10% 4% Summer 28% 24% 16% Autumn 33% 30% 47% Winter 32% 36% 33% • Summer yield: • Relatively more important in High rainfall zone, and less important for Mediterranean • Autumn yield: • Relatively more important for Mediterranean • Spring yield less important than other seasons
- 31. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Hard to value traits… • Used the value of Autumn Yield as a financial benchmark (anchor) • Enabled us to quantify the value of other traits against $Autumn Yield • Persistence (years) • Survival under adverse conditions • Summer survival • …
- 32. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – persistence
- 33. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – adverse condition survival
- 34. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – hot/ dry summer survival
- 35. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values –persistence/ survival High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Autumn yield per HA ($ value per 1% preference per year) $29.1 $29.2 $27. 5 Year of persistence 4.1% 3.3% 2.0% $119 $96 $54 Guaranteed survival in adverse conditions 7.2% 10.5% 7.5% $209 $306 $206 Relatively less important in Mediterranean Relatively more important in Temperate
- 36. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values – hot/dry summer High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Autumn yield per HA ($ value per 1% preference per year) $29.1 $29.2 $27. 5 Guaranteed survival in hot/ dry summer 18.2% 12.4% 16.5% $510 $347 $433 Relatively more important in High rainfall
- 37. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values in context • @ $250/ tonne of grain (as presented) • Guaranteed survival in adverse conditions of $306 or the equivalent to 1.2 tonnes of grain/ ha in temperate environment • Guaranteed survival in a hot, dry summer of $510 or the equivalent of 2.1 tonnes of grain/ ha in high rainfall environment • …
- 38. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Principles • Trait priorities evolve over time • Response to new knowledge and industry/market demands • Surveys can be used to update and monitor farmer priorities • Engage with farmers and boost adoption • Ensure breeding programme priorities align with user needs • Opportunity to build product profiles/ selection tools by combining • Economic principles & farmer desired gains
- 39. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Make a difference to food production internationally using science & technology