Presentation introduces the concept of Climate Scenarios and Analogues. This was during a training held in Nairobi in late 2013. Presenters were David Arango and Edward Jones who work for CCAFS - CIAT. Find out more about the work of CCAFS in East Africa: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/regions/east-africa

1. Climate Analogues
Nairobi, Kenya
David Arango and Edward Jones
Researchers CCAFS-CIAT
18th November 2013

2. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013

3. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013

4. What is the Climate Analogues
approach?
The Climate Analogues approach identifies
areas where the climate today is similar
(analogous) to the future projected climate of
another area.

5. What is the Climate Analogues
approach?
• Jointly developed by the Walker Institude (University
of Reading, UK) and the program “Decision and
Policy Analysis” (DAPA) at CIAT
• Financed by CCAFS theme 1: Adaptation to
progressive climate change
• In colaboration with other contributing people and
institutions

6. Definition of a Climate Analogue
•
The term climate analogues describes two sites that share
similar climatic conditions.
• The two sites may be separated geographically and/or
temporally (i.e. similar climatic conditions experienced at
different periods of time) as climatic conditions change
and migrate.

7. Concept of a Climate Analogues
• Compares locations based on similarity in
precipitation and temperature but it is also
flexible to incorporate other input variables
(e.g. soils, infrastructure, social and
economic conditions).

8. Possible analogues
BACKWARD
MY SITE
(future)
OTHER SITE (s)
(current)
• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?

9. Possible analogues
FORWARD
MY SITE
(current)
OTHER SITE (s)
(future)
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the
future?

10. Possible analogues
NONE
MY SITE
(current)
OTHER SITE (s)
(current)
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the
world currently?

11. The climate data use by analogues
 Present climate: WorldClim
= interpolated data set of climatic
observations , between the years
1950-2000
 Future climate:
- downsaclaed projected conditions
for the decade 2030 (i.e. 2020-2049)
- scenarios: A1B, A2,B1
- there are 24 GCMs and also an
“Ensemble” option which is the mean
of all GCMS
Mean annual
temperature (ºC)
-30.1
30.5
Annual
precipitation (mm)
0
12084

12. Emissions scenarios
• The emissions scenarios are the results of models used to simulate the future
production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with global development following
different socio-economic focus points. (i.e. introduction of renewable energy
vs. continued dependence on fossil fuels).
• The different scenarios forecast different GHGs levels in the atmosphere
which then translate into variations in future predicted climatic conditions.

13. Climatic Distance
CCAFS Similarity Index
How do you calculate climatic similiarity?
Climatic similarity is calculated as a
vector in n dimensional space.
n = number of input parameters

14. Climatic Distance
CCAFS Similarity Index
How do you calculate climatic similarity?
m: number of time periods (in months, days)
v: number of variables
V: variable (temperature, precipitation)
W: weight
f: scenario at reference site (future climate)
p: scenario in search range (present climate)

15. Input Parameters
Growing season of interest
- Entire year
- Growing season of a specific crop
- Rainy season
-…
Seasonal variability

16. Input Parameters
Climate models
• You may choose between any of the 24 GCMs
• Or the average of all 24 GCMs = Ensemble
 Reduces uncertainty from using a single model

17. Input Parameters
Climatic variables
Temperature and precipitation
Combinations of bioclimatic
variables also available
Temperature only
Precipitation only
When using multiple variables it is possible to vary the weight of each
depending on the importance that you want it to have in the overall analysis

18. • Climate Analogues is available for use through:
• Functional in Firefox, Google Chrome and IE

19. http://analogues.ciat.cgiar.org/climate/

20. After an analysis…
• Visually investigate the results
• Rerun with different variables
• Download results and information
• Download the code to use in R
• …Validate results with other data sources

21. Lets look at an example from the online tool

22. 1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013

23. What are the application of Climate
Analogues?
-Explain differences in crop yields
- Identification of crops and varieties that are adapted to
specific growing conditions
- Evaluation of crop growth models
- Farms of the Future
-Exchange of genetic material and collaborative research

24. Farms of the Future
The Climate Analogues concept in the field
Identification of sites to hold an
interchange between
agriculturalist and share climate
adaptation techniques and
experiences

25. Possible analogues
BACKWARD
MY SITE
(future)
OTHER SITE (s)
(current)
• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?

26. Identifying exchange sites for FOTF
– Different combinations of variables
• Temperature and precipitation
• Temperature only
• Precipitation only
• Combinations with bioclimatic variables
(Rainfall total, temperature of hottest month…)
– Growing period of interest: entire year, specific growing
season, rainy season…
– Thresholds and GCM agreement: i.e the closest 5/10/15 and
where 60/70/80 % of GCMs agree
– Before selecting a final site we also need to consider socioeconomic parameters, infrastructure, cultural boundaries,
soils etc.

27. Farms of the Future- Tanzania
“Which other places currently experience
the future projected climate of a reference
site, and from which we can transfer
climate adaptation and management
techniques?

28. Reference site: Yamba, Tanzania

29. Farms of the Future in Tanzania
Analogue site map
Lushoto
CCAFS site
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Njombe
Nyombo
Mbinga

30. Graphs comparing the
future climate at the
reference site (Yamba)
and the current climate
at potential exchange
sites
 The best analogue sites are
those that have a current climate
more similar to the future
projected climate of the
reference site
 Producers are taken from the
reference site to investigate the
selected analogue sites.

31. Farms of the Future in Tanzania
A journey to possible future conditions of Yamba
Journey through analogue sites
Village visits
Lushoto
Starting point
Mbuzii
Yamba
Kinole
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
-Market value chain social
enterprise visit
- Input supply Stockists
-Weather station visit
- Bean trial visit
- Tree nursery visit
Njombe
Nyombo
Sepukila Village:
-Matengo pits: Traditional soil and
water conservation technique
-Coffee nursery
-Stoves
Masasi Village:
Mbinga
-Water source
-Fish pond
-Biogas
Mtama Village:
- Bee keeping

32. Exchange of genetic resources
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for
the implementation of the TIRFAA project?

33. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach
for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Senahú, Guatemala (Longitude= -89.779, Latitude= 15.477)
Banana: all year round
Backward analysis: Where can I find my future climatic conditions currently?
Share the benefits of genetic resources?

34. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach
for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Rwanda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441)
Banana: all year round
Backward analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?

35. How to apply the Climate Analogues approach
for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Rwanda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441)
Banana: all year round
Backward analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?

36. Climate Analogues & TIRFAA
- Helps to improve the selection of future plant varieties and
identify which varieties have proven to be most adaptable to the
given climatic conditions.
- Construct scenarios for users to observe the opportunities to
improve access to genetic materials from outside of their country.
- Identify which plant varieties may be most useful for other parts
of the world to fulfil the needs to adapt to changing climatic
conditions.
- Identify areas where there is urgent need to conserve specific
genetic materials.

37. A few more words…
• There still exists significant uncertainty in future climate projections
and their impacts on agricultural systems, especially at the local level.
• Until now, the adaptation capacity of communities has been a factor
that has rarely been taken into account in global policies

38. The use of Climate Analogues
significantly improves
knowledge of possible
management techniques
under changing climatic
conditions, and supports the
identification of appropriate
adaptation strategies.

39. Adaptation to Progressive
Climate Change
1 one
Gracias!
>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
Contactanos !
– David Arango
d.arango@cgiar.org
– Edward Jones
e.j.jones@cgiar.org
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