Presentation by Stefan Frank, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
International conference on agricultural emissions and food security: Connecting research to policy and practice
10-13 September 2018
Berlin, Germany
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
1. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in
agriculture without compromising
food security?
Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, JF. Soussana, R. Beach,
H. Valin, E. Wollenberg, O. Fricko, M. Gusti,
T. Hasegawa, and many more….
2. Challenges for the land use sector
AFOLU sector is key for climate change mitigation:
24% of global GHG emissions
Increased biomass demand and emission reduction potential
Trade-offs with other SDGs?
Source: Rogelj et al., 2018
4. GHG mitigation in GLOBIOM
Technical livestock- and crop non-CO2 add-on options (EPA, 2015)
E.g. anaerobic digesters, animal feed supplements etc.
Structural adjustments (Havlík et al., 2014)
Reallocation of production within a region
Transition of livestock and crop production systems
International trade
Demand side (Valin et al., 2015)
Consumers’ response to food prices
Diet shifts (not considered in this study)
Soil carbon sequestration options (Smith et al., 2008)
E.g. improved crop & grassland management, restoration of
degraded soils etc.
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
5. Key scenario drivers
Scenario name Radiative forcing
levels in 2100
Carbon price in
2050
Bioenergy in
2050
3.1 °C scenario 6.0 W/m2 2 $/tCO2eq 53 EJ
2.6 °C scenario 4.5 W/m2 10 $/tCO2eq 61 EJ
2.2 °C scenario 3.4 W/m2 25 $/tCO2eq 70 EJ
2.0 °C scenario 2.6 W/m2 65 $/tCO2eq 81 EJ
1.5 °C scenario 1.9 W/m2 190 $/tCO2eq 103 EJ
SSP2 (Fricko et al., 2016): Population, GDP, technological
change, diets…
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
6. Scenario design
Full global participation in mitigation efforts
Radiative forcing levels 6.0 – 1.9 W/m2 (1.5 C target) based on
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
Only regional participation in mitigation efforts
Carbon price for AFOLU in developed countries only
Carbon price for AFOLU in developed countries and Brazil
Carbon price for AFOLU in developed countries and India
+ 5 additional scenarios….
SOC sequestration scenarios
No SOC sequestration considered
SOC sequestration
SOC sequestration + yield co-benefits
Sensitivity analysis
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
7. Carbon tax impact on food prices
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
Source: Frank et al., 2017
8. Regional land use mitigation hot-spots
Land rich countries
with LUC emissions
offer significant
mitigation potential
with limited food
security trade-offs
Highly populated
countries with
intensive
agriculture show
limited potential
with large trade-
offs
2 C stabilization
1.5 C target
2.6 C stabilization
3.1 C stabilization
Levelofeffort
+ Brazil
+ Congo BasinDeveloped
+ China
+ India
2.2 C stabilization
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
Source: Frank et al., 2017
9. SOC sequestration and food security
Developed +
China
+ 3.5 GtCO2eq
No SOC
Incl. SOC
sequestration
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
Source: Frank et al., 2017
10. Reduced marginal impact on undernourishment from 80 – 300
million people to 20-75!
SOC sequestration and food security
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
Source: Frank et al., 2017
11. Non-CO2 mitigation in agriculture
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
Source: Frank et al., 2018
12. Regional non-CO2 mitigation in agriculture
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018
1.7 GtCO2eq at 40 USD/tCO2eq in 2050
Source: Frank et al., 2018
13. Conclusions
Globally coordinated efforts even with lower ambition outperform
regional or sectorial approaches
Significant potential for GHG abatement in the AFOLU sector with limited
trade-offs:
Mitigation of land use change emissions: regional mitigation hot-
spots i.e. Indonesia or Congo Basin countries should be targeted
SOC sequestration through improved crop- and grassland
management, and restoration of organic and degraded soils
Non-CO2 mitigation through structural changes & technological
options
Full mitigation portfolio needed to manage trade-offs with other
objectives aside climate change mitigation
Agri GHG Conference, Berlin, 2018