Presentation from the CCAFS Farm-household Modeling workshop - Amsterdam, 23-35 April 2012

1. FALLOW
Meine van Desi Rachmat Betha
Noordwijk Suyamto Mulia Lusiana
www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_download
Short presentation at CCAFS workshop: Farm-
household modelling with a focus on food security,
climate change adaptation, risk management and
mitigation: a way forward, 23-25 April 2012

2. Macro-climate change
Globalization and desakota integration
Rural development Government:
infrastructure,
Labour, Land, land use/access
Water, Soil fer- planning
tility, Germplasm,
Capital
Decision
Knowledge and making on Self-reliant vs
know-how, market-reliant
Norms &
agricultural livelihood
sanctions resource strategies
use
Sustainability &
Agent differen-
tiation: gender, Sustainagility
class, age, Private sec-
power, ethnicity tor: input &
output
markets

3. Framing human behaviour & decisions:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Collective action, Linear Development
bounded altruism, programming, planning & ‘green
social norms, do’s multi-goal growth’: “macro-
& don’ts optimization economics”
Trusted sources of Agent-based Payments for eco-
information: models: wealth, system services:
extension & class, age, gender, “environmental
innovation theory power, ethnicity economics”
Rights-based Planetary boun-
System dynamics:
approaches: daries, ecological
positive & negative
bundles of rights sustainability:
feedback loops
to resource use “giga-economics”

4. Framing human behaviour & decisions:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Grand synthesis is yet to come, but
Collective action,
bounded altruism,
Linear
programming,
Development
planning & ‘green
we’re starting to connect at least
social norms, do’s
& don’ts
multi-goal
optimization
growth’: “macro-
economics”
some of these theories in our current
Trusted sources of
information:
Agent-based
models: wealth,
Payments for eco-
system services:
extension & class, age, gender, environmental
models….
innovation theory power, ethnicity economics”
Rights-based Planetary boun-
System dynamics:
approaches: daries, ecological
positive & negative
bundles of rights sustainability:
feedback loops
to resource use “giga-economics”

5. The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of
decision making:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Agent-based Trusted sources of
System dynamics:
models: wealth, information:
positive & negative
class, age, gender, extension &
feedback loops
power, ethnicity innovation theory
Rights-based Payments for eco-
Dynamic Geo-
approaches: system services:
Informatics
bundles of rights “environmental
System
to resource use economics”

6. www.agralin.nl/ojs/index.php/njas/article/view/588/302

7. A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning
A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)
Livelihoods, provisioning
& profitability
Land Conse- Response/
Actors/
Drivers use/cover quences & feedback
agents
changes functions options
Biodiversity, Watershed
functions, GHG emissions,
Landscape beauty
B2. PES and conditional ES incentives
B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc)
Modified from Van Noordwijk et al., 2011

8. Short model description
Goal of model development:
• Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting
cultivation to permanently cropped fields, labour + cash constrained
decisions in a ‘tropical forest margin’ setting
• Dynamics of soil fertility (~ Trenbath) and (agro)forest resources
• Relate dynamic knowledge of landscape agents to dynamic action
(decision making) in ‘adopt & learn’ mode; open to impact analysis of
‘extension’
• Explore spatial dynamics, consequences of land use zoning, restrictions
to access
• Tradeoff and scenario analysis of livelihoods & ES (C-stocks,
biodiversity, key watershed functions)
• Use in spatial planning and scenario development boundary work
Typical research questions addressed:
1) Can we account for historical land use change of a study area
(calibration/validation phase)
2) What can we expect (‘scenarios’) of ‘business as usual’ extrapolation
compared to specific interventions in spatial planning, demographic,
economic, K-dynamics, PES-incentive systems

9. Short model description
maximizing ‘utility’ ‘model inside the model’:
(profitability)
• Diagram dynamic knowledge - learning
(external-extension and
of model internal - experience)
≈

11. Lusiana
et all.,
under
review

13. Developments needed to
better deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered If ‘yes’, which Which indicators For your model For house-
in pre- indicators were used? would you like to use hold level
vious ana- in future to deal with models in
lyses? attribute? general
Economic Y •Non-food expendi- • Empirical GINI • Learning sty- Multiple
performance ture coefficients les ~ decision discount
• Returns to labour • (Attractiveness to) rules rates ~
• Learning styles external investment •Degree of decision
•In/out-migration • External input prioritization making
as outcome dependency
Food self- Y • Landscape-level • Empirical GINI Preferential Distribu-
sufficiency production ~ coefficients treatment of tional
demand staple food ~ issues,
•Exchange across portfolio landless
landscape border choices HH’s
Food security Y •Income security • Empirical GINI Multiple buffer Risk avoi-
•Interannual buffer coefficients concepts ~ ex- dance in
•Nutritional ternal shocks switch to
diversity markets

14. Developments needed to better
deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered in If ‘yes’, which Which indicators would For your model For house-hold
previous indicators were you like to use in future level models in
analyses? used? to deal with attribute? general
Climate y Single random Partial correlates of Link to rela- Portfolio
variability variate on yields stochastic effects on ted model for analysis,
multiple crops & prepro- multiple
income sources cessing buffers
Risk y Multiple model Substitutibility Partial de- Desakota
runs across key across different pendence of family
stochastic para- buffer types external price networks (rur-
meters variation urb)
Mitigation y Landscape level Livestock-based PES mecha- x-scale PES
C stocks emission estimates nisms ~ HH mechanisms
scale
Adaptation y Local experience Interactions Meso-clima- X-scale
based learning between diverse tic influences sustain-agility
as driver of learning styles on ClimVar analyses
decisions impacts

15. Final remarks
Common features in x-scale
model family ~ databases Tree FBA allometry
Plot/patch WaNuLCAS,
SExI-FS
Household/landscape
FALLOW, ABM’s
GenRiver
Watershed
Daily Annual time-steps
Strong interest in using models as ‘boundary objects’ in K2A analysis with local stakeholders

16. Initial version in Stella for 10*10 grid
Simplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform,
district level <100,000 ha Recent applications
Suyamto DA, Mulia R, van 1) in context of
OpCost/REALU in
Noordwijk M and Lusiana Indonesia, Viet Nam
B. 2009. Fallow 2.0. Manual and 2) Aceh post Tsunami
Software. Bogor, Indonesia. World recovery & land use
planning
Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA 3) Livestock intergration
Regional Office. 67 p. 4) University courses
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/af2/fallow_download

18. Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate
change resiliency option for farmers: an
example of local adaptation in Vietnam
Quan Nguyen, Minh Ha Hoang, Ingrid Öborn, and Meine van Noordwijk
Recently, the Commission on Sustainable
Agriculture and Climate Change (Beddington
et al. 2011) launched its recommendations for
ensuring food security under a changing
climate. The report does not mention trees,
forests or agroforestry as important for food
security. This is in contrast to the ways farming
traditions have evolved (van Noordwijk et al.
2011) and how farmers currently try to adapt
to further climate change.

19. Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect
Vegetation effects on
rainfall triggering
Macro- Teleconnections of
rainfall with sea sur-
face temperature
Rainfall pattern&intensity Meso-
Local tree cover: wind-
breaks, shade trees
Temperature, humidity,
windspeed, incoming
Micro - Plant
growth
radiation, potential eva-
potranspiration at the level
climate Water supply
of plants or animals buffered by soil

20. Pfrom Et/P
van der Ent RJ, Savenije
HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐
Dunne SC, 2010. Origin
and fate of atmospheric
moisture over
continents. Water
Resources Research 46, E/P
W09525,

21. South Africa’s
concept of pay-
ments for tree
plantations that
evaporate water at
above-average
rates, can not be
transferred to E.
Africa, where such
evapotrans-piration
is likely to return as
rainfall.

22. Financial capital
Emotion, intuition
Macro-economic Human Social Risk & .
development buffering
capital Pico- capital
economics
sermons
Ratio Social norms
Infra- Natural
structure Spatial planning & LU rights capital
Giga-economic green development