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Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009

                     FNS Indonesia
                        Jakarta
                    06 October 2009
German Parliamentary Elections
     27 September 2009

         Rainer Heufers
         6 October 2009
Who was competing?
Black                         Purple




Green         Yellow         Red
Election Results
Back to 1949…?
Voter turnout reduced
Geographic distribution
West and East Germany
West and East Germany
Analysis by profession (in %)
Analysis by age (in %)


(-1)           (+5)   (+3)



(-1)   (-16)          (+3)    (+4)



(-2)   (-13)          (+3)    (+4)



(-4)   (-10)   (+6)           (+4)



(-1)                         (+1)
Politik Aliran?
Reasons for Voting Decisions
Gains and losses (in %)
Seat allocation
Coalition Building on the National Level
                             Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69,
                                                          2005-09)

                             Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998)
                                          (currently negotiated)


                                                                Red Red
          Red Green                                             Green
          (1998-2005)

                                                  “Jamaica-coalition”
          “Social liberal”
          (1969-1982)
                                                 “Traffic light coalition”
Negotiating a Coalition
Negotiations
• Location: representative office of German
  state of NRW
• Time: Until Parliament convenes on 27
  October or before 9 November
• 9 FDP reps, 18 CDU/CSU reps
• Result will be a more or less specific
  contract (1994: 50 pages)
7 working groups discussing 2
  ministerial portfolios each
   •   Foreign – Security policy
   •   Economic and Financial Policies
   •   Homes Affairs and Law
   •   …
Traditional practice:
  No side of the table will gain both resorts of a working group
  Each working group has two Chairpersons from both camps
Issues
Highly contentious     Problematic      Less problematic       Easy


                                     Labour
                        Taxes        policies
  Home Affairs /                                              Foreign
 Internal Security                              Nuclear        policy
                                                 power
                          Stimulus
                          packages
     Public                                                  Security
     health                               Unemployment       Defence
                                          welfare benefits
                     Agriculture
1 Chancellor
  15 Ministers
  Foreign Affairs / Vice Chancellor     Defense
Home Affairs                          Family/Seniors/Women/Youth
Law                                   Health
Finance                               Traffic/Works/Urban Planning
Economics/Technology                  Environment/Nuclear Safety
Labour/Welfare                        Education/Research
Nutrition/Agriculture/                State Secretariat (Chancellery)
  Consumer Protection                 Economic Cooperation/Development
Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009

                     FNS Indonesia
                        Jakarta
                    06 October 2009

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German Parliamentary Elections 2009 (Mr. Rainer Heufers)