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The Future Of Social Networks

Full blog post at http://tinyurl.com/3yc8q5. Presented at Graphing Social Patterns, March 3, 2008 in San Diego. Theme: "Social networks will be like air".

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The Future Of Social Networks

  1. The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008
  3. They are online with their social networks
  5. Theme Social networks will be like air.
  6. Components of social networks <ul><li>Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Activities </li></ul><ul><li>Business model </li></ul>Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value
  7. My multiple identities
  8. Universal identity <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile number </li></ul>
  9. Universal identity foundations <ul><li>Federation (OpenID approach) </li></ul><ul><li>A few major players will serve as major federation focal points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data Portability Group is the beginning </li></ul></ul>
  10. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web <ul><li>“ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: </li></ul><ul><li>Ownership of their own personal information, including: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>their own profile data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the list of people they are connected to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the activity stream of content they create; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and </li></ul><ul><li>Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington </li></ul><ul><li>http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web </li></ul>
  11. My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group
  12. My real social graph is much more complex
  13. Let’s end the insanity
  14. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo
  15. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps
  16. Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
  17. What people do today on social networks
  18. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
  19. But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”
  20. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere
  21. The under-rated value of networks
  22. Endorsement value depends on your network <ul><li>Your authority on the specific topic </li></ul><ul><li>Your network’s interest and authority on the topic </li></ul><ul><li>The trust level among your network on the topic </li></ul>
  23. The future business model for social networks <ul><li>Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable </li></ul><ul><li>Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals </li></ul>* From Marian Salzman, JWT
  24. Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks
  25. Recommendations <ul><li>Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation </li></ul><ul><li>Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in </li></ul><ul><li>Develop social applications that have meaning </li></ul><ul><li>Integrate social networks into existing activities </li></ul><ul><li>Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks </li></ul>
  26. Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com