Analysis instead of summation: Why indices are not enough for ICT policy and regulation
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Analysing ICT indicators, based on benchmarking provides a far more valid evidence-base for ICT policy and regulation than using the ranking of a country on one of the global ICT indices. Both ap- proaches use the same data but differ in how the data is analysed. The benchmarking approach is a starting point for further analysis, showing clearly the linkages between individual indicators. Global ICT indices, as they are currently formulated, disguise these linkages by providing a composite measure, and often only display normalised indicators that cannot be verified by the user. This encourages the perception that the index is the end result of the analysis, rather than the beginning.
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Analysis instead of summation: Why indices are not enough for ICT policy and regulation
- 1. ANALYSIS INSTEAD OF SUMMATION WHY INDICES ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR ICT POLICY AND REGULATION Research ICT Solutions
- 2. A GOOD INDEX • Most of us have used indices and many of us have constructed some • Good indices include: • World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index • Consumer Price Indices • OECD price baskets • Stock market indices • Changes in the value or ranking of ICT sector indices should help to identify best practice and potential bottlenecks to improved ICT sector performance
- 3. COMMON PROBLEMS • Summing up indicators that explain the same factor (muti-colinearity) • Summing up indicators that are all highly correlated to GDP per capita • Measuring affordability as prices expressed as % of GDP per capita, masking information included in prices • Using first world indicators such as fixed- line penetration and wired broadband
- 5. COMPARING RANKINGS AGAINST SELECTED ICT INDICATORS Ranking ICT Indicators ADI (A4AI) 3i (EIU) IDI (ITU) NRI (WEF) MCI (GSMA) 1 GB prepaid data in USD Active SIM cards per 100 Fixed-line per 100 Nigeria 13 45 137 119 98 3.20 83 0.10 Kenya 30 51 129 86 105 5.00 82 0.19 Ghana 26 49 112 102 96 2.46 128 1.01 Namibia 31 NA 120 99 NA 5.89 99 7.42 Brazil 10 18 63 72 56 8.48 124 21.01 Sources A4AI 2017 EIU 2017 ITU 2016 WEF 2016 GSMA 2016 RIS / RIA Q4 2016 ITU 2016 ITU 2016 Brazil scores best in this comparison, but has the highest mobile broadband prices and the only 2nd highest mobile penetration
- 6. COMPARING RANKINGS AGAINST SELECTED ICT INDICATORS Ranking ICT Indicators ADI (A4AI) 3i (EIU) IDI (ITU) NRI (WEF) MCI (GSMA) 1 GB prepaid data in USD Active SIM cards per 100 Fixed- line per 100 Nigeria 13 45 137 119 98 3.20 83 0.10 Kenya 30 51 129 86 105 5.00 82 0.19 Ghana 26 49 112 102 96 2.46 128 1.01 Namibia 31 NA 120 99 NA 5.89 99 7.42 Brazil 10 18 63 72 56 8.48 124 21.01 Sources A4AI 2017 EIU 2017 ITU 2016 WEF 2016 GSMA 2016 RIS / RIA Q4 2016 ITU 2016 ITU 2016 Nigeria scores better the Ghana but Ghana is cheaper and has higher penetration of SIM cards and fixed-lines
- 7. INDICES MOSTLY TRACK GDP PER CAPITA
- 8. VARIATION IN THE EIU 3I (2017) EXPLAINED BY GDP PER CAPITA CURRENT PRICES FOR 2016 GDPperCapitainUSD(currentprices) 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 0 25 50 75 100 R² = 0.8479
- 9. VARIATION IN THE GSMA MOBILE CONNECTIVITY INDEX (2017) EXPLAINED BY GDP PER CAPITA CURRENT PRICES FOR 2016 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 0 22.5 45 67.5 90 R² = 0.8673
- 11. VARIATION IN INDICES EXPLAINED BY PRICES (R2) - NETWORK READINESS INDEX (WEF) NRI 4th Pillar Affordability 1GB USD 3% 8% % GDP per Capita 58% 28% OECD 30 calls 100 SMS basket USD 1% 17% % GDP per Capita 62% 32%
- 12. IDI 2016 Access Use Skill 1GB Basket USD 0% 0% 0% 0% 1GB Basket % GDP per Capita 64% 63% 55% 56% R2 INTERNET DEVELOPMENT INDEX (ITU) 3i Availability Affordability Readiness Relevance 1GB Basket USD 3% 1% 3% 6% 5% 1GB Basket % GDP per Capita: Exponential 79% 73% 67% 53% 41% R2 INCLUSIVE INTERNET INDEX (EIU)
- 13. R2 AFFORDABILITY DRIVERS INDEX (A4AI) ADI Infrastructure Access 1GB Basket USD 3% 1% 7% 1GB Basket % GDP per Capita 44% 38% 43% R2 MOBILE CONNECTIVITY INDEX (GSMA) MCI Affordability 1GB Basket USD 0% 1% 1GB Basket % GDP per Capita: Exponential 64% 68%
- 14. NO SHORTCUT FOR ICT POLICY MAKERS AND REGULATORS
- 15. BENCHMARKING Competition Infrastructure Affordability Access Usage • When benchmarking an analysts needs to select the countries to benchmark against • The interlinked indicators enable the identification of regulatory intervention points for the ICT sector
- 18. DOMINANT OPERATORS, (BIGGEST WITH 39% MARKETSHARE) ARE NOT FUSSED BY LOW PRICES OF SMALLER OPERATORS • Smaller operators only offer services in the Kampala / Entebbe • Policy makers and regulators thus need to find ways on how to increase competition on national level • National roaming? • Extend open access fibre network? • Base -station level spectrum allocation instead of national?
- 19. CONCLUSION
- 20. GDP PER CAPITA Not in scope of policy makers and regulators SUMMATION Value of indicators is lost in aggregation ANYTHING BUT PRICES Indices are not linked to prices, not even affordability sub-indices BENCHMARKING Analytical power bears responsibility NOTALLANSWERED M-Access starting point rather then end result AWAY FROM THE COFFEE TABLE Global indices can be improved to serve ICT policy makers & regulators