Monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international economy

1. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020.
-10.5
-12.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base scenario
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
YoY change MoM change
8
9
10
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Economic forecasts, Spain
The Bank of Spain is considering two scenarios
on the future evolution of GDP depending on
how the Covid-19 pandemic develops. In
scenario 11
, GDP is forecast to fall 10.5% in 2020,
and will increase 7.3% in 2021. In scenario 22
, the
forecasts are worse, with a fall of 12.6% in 2020,
and an increase of 4.1% in 2021. The effects of the
European recovery program, Next Generation EU,
are not included in either scenario.
In reference to the job market, in scenario 1,
the unemployment rate (contained through
the furlough scheme and the drop in activity
in Q2 2020, is set to reach 17.1% of the
workforce in 2020, and 19.4% in 2021. In the
worst-case scenario, this could go as high as
18.6% in 2020 and 22.1% in 2021.
The forecasts for the public deficit have
worsened as a result of the increase in spending
from the measures applied to mitigate the
negativeimpactofthepandemicontheeconomy
(the extension of the furlough scheme, the
subsistence income and the Autonomous
Community Fund). In Scenario 1, the deficit will
reach -10.8% of GDP in 2020 and -7% in 2021. In
scenario 2, it will be -12.1% of GDP and -9.9%
respectively. For its part, pubic debt is expected
to increase considerably in both scenarios. It
could reach 116.8% or 120.6% of GDP in 2020
according to the scenario in question, and 115.4%
or 125.6% in 2021.
Pension expenditure, Spain
In September, Social Security pension
expenditure increased 2.3% year-on-year (vs. 5%
in September 2019), to a total of €9.9 billion. At
the same time, the number of pensions grew
0.05% year-on-year (vs. 1.2% for September
2019), to 9,765,352.
The average pension for the whole system
reached €1,014.96 monthly, which represents a
2.2% year-on-year increase.
Of the total pension expenditure, 71.7%
correspond to retirements, that increased 2.8%
year-on-year (€7.1 billion).
HICP, Spain
In September, the advanced HICP (Harmonized
Index of Consumer Prices) indicator remained
stable,registeringamonthlyrateof0%and-0.6%
in year-on-year terms. This development was
affected by falling fuel prices compared to the
increase from last year, while electricity prices
rose, and package holidays moderated their fall
compared to September 2019.
Economy…
at a glance October 2020
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2020.
Pension expenditure, Spain
Billions of €
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security
and Migrations, 2020.
GDP, Spain
YoY change (%)
1 Based on an epidemiological supposition in which the appearance of out-
breaks only requires containment measures in certain areas, which would
cause relatively limited disruption to economic activity.
2 Greater intensity of the outbreaks and a return to stricter containment
measures that would damage services sectors that require greater social
interaction and other more productive ones.
HICP, Spain
YoY and MoM change (%)

2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the
Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de
Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Services Industry Construction
Q1 2020 Q2 2020 1st Semester 2020
25
35
45
55
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Manufacturing PMI
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Eurozone
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
Economic sentiment
In September, the Eurozone Economic
Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved for the
fifth consecutive month, although at a
slower rate due to the uncertainty generated
by the new wave of Covid-19 cases.
Specifically, the ESI advanced 3.6 points to
91.1, still below the levels prior to the crisis.
By sectors, the confidence of the service
sector stands out, which although increasing
6.1 points, remains in negative levels (-11.1),
fundamentally due to the uncertainty
generated in business as a result of the new
outbreaks.
By countries, the main economies in the
region presented a mixed performance.
In Germany, the index increase was below the
European average, but despite this, it was
consolidated in higher values (1.2 points to
95.5). In Italy and France, the index
improved significantly, registering increases of
8.4 and 5.8 points respectively (to 89 and 96.6
points). For its part, Spain registered a slight
increase of 1.6 points, reaching 89.7 points.
GDP, UK
In Q2 2020, according to definitive data
published by the Office for National Statistics
(the ONS), the British economy contracted
19.8% quarterly (-20.4% in the initial
estimate). In year-on-year terms, the fall was
21.5%.
This represents the second quarter of GDP
contraction accumulated by the UK, and takes
it back to 2003 levels.
By demand components, household
consumption fell 23.6% quarterly, and gross
fixed capital formation by 21.6%.
By sectors, the construction industry was the
sector most affected with a quarterly drop of
35.7%, followed by the service sector (-19.2%)
and the industrial sector (-16.3%).
In comparison to the main European
economies, the UK is the country whose GDP
fellthemostinQ2,aheadofSpain(-17.8%)and
France (-13.8%).
Industrial activity, China
In September, China’s manufacturing PMI
registered a slight increase to 51.5 points (vs.
51 points in August).
This represents 7 consecutive increases that
the index has accumulated according to data
published by China’s National Bureau of
Statistics. In the sub-indexes, production
and new orders increased positively. On the
other hand, job creation and the supply of
raw materials is still registering values
below 50 points.
GDP evolution by sectors, UK
QoQ change (%)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ONS, 2020.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission, 2020.
Manufacturing PMI, China
Points
Economic Sentiment (ISE), Eurozone
Points
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on National Bureau of
Statistics of China, 2020.