The document discusses global risks and economic prospects according to a survey from the World Economic Forum. Over two-thirds of respondents expect constant volatility in the short term and one-third expect it for the entire decade. Nearly two-thirds see a global recession as probable in 2023. Top short term risks are seen as a cost-of-living crisis, high inflation, and a food supply crisis. Top long term risks include failure to mitigate or adapt to climate change, biodiversity loss, and societal polarization.

1. 11
11
6
26
26
48
43
55
47
53
61
47
76
58
47
57
45
42
37
33
27
24
16
5
Europe
Latin America & the Caribbean
Central Asia
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
US
East Asia and Pacific
China
Low Moderate High
32
5
45
18
Somewhat unlikely
Neither likely nor unlikely
Somewhat likely
Extremely likely
Global risks and prospects (WorldEconomicForum)
ECONOMY
In data
Global short- and long-term risks (GlobalRisksReport2023)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World
Economic Forum, 2023.
EXPECTATIONS
HIGH GLOBAL VOLATILITY
SHORT TERM
69%
of respondents
63%
PROBABILITY OF
GLOBAL RECESSION
IN 2023
of respondents
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Weak
demand
for 91% of respondents
MAIN GLOBAL
RISK
SHORT TERM
by high
inflation rates
Cost-of-living
crisis
THE RETURN TO THE "NEW NORMAL" AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAS QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN UKRAINE,
WHICH LED TO THE CURRENT FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES
More than 2/3 of respondents expect constant volatility in the
short term and 1/3 for the entire decade
% of respondents
In the short term, the "cost-of-living crisis"
generates social unrest
Top 5 ranking 2-year risk by severity
Expert Perspectives (Chief Economists Outlook)
A CONTEXT OF HIGH ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH ECONOMIC AGENTS WILL HAVE TO ADAPT TO PERSISTENT
HEADWINDS IN 2023
Nearly 2/3 of respondents consider a global
recession in 2023
% answers on probability of global recession in 2023
High inflation expectations in Europe for 57% of
respondents and only 5% in China
% answers on inflation expectations in 2023
Next decade conditioned by environmental and social crises,
driven by underlying geopolitical and economic trends
Top 5 ranking 10-year risk by severity
Current risks with the greatest potential impact
on a global scale
Top 5 ranking by severity
Energy supply crisis
1
Cost-of-living crisis
2
Rising inflation
3
Food supply crisis
4
Cyberattacks on critical
infrastructure
5
Risk categories
Societal Economic Technological
Natural disasters and extreme
weather events
Failure to mitigate climate change
1st
Failure of climate-change adaptation
Natural disasters and extreme weather events
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Large-scale involuntary migration
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Risk categories
Societal Environmental
Consensus on weak growth in Europe in 2023
% answers on economic growth expectations in 2023
100
Europe
30
55
15
Middle East
& North Africa
91
9
US
Weak/very weak
Strong
Weak
69
26
5
Central Asia
48
38
14
China
15
70
15
South Asia
37
58
5
East Asia &
Pacific
68
32
Sub-Saharan Africa
68
32
Latin America
& the Caribbean
Weak demand and high cost of borrowing are the main
challenges for business activity
% answers on the challenges for business activity in 2023
91
87
64
45
36
23
Weak demand
High cost of borrowing
High input costs
Talent shortages
Regulatory and policy uncertainty
Supply chain disruptions
Cost-of-living crisis
1st
Geoeconomic confrontation
Failure to mitigate climate change
Erosion of social cohesion and
societal polarization
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Risk categories
Societal Environmental Geopolitical
13
20
69
34
14
26
2
11
2
9
2 years
10 years
Progressive tipping points and persistent crises leading to catastrophic outcomes
Consistently volatile across economies and industries with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories
Slightly volatile with occasional localised surprises
Limited volatility with relative stability
Renewed stability with a revival of global resilience