Even though the economy had showed signs of weakening in the last quarter, most of the commercial markets remained active in terms of commercial leasing. Demand was primarily in the form of relocation and consolidations as companies were looking for more cost effective solution for their real estate requirement. Rental values for grade ‘A’ office space remained stable in almost all the major markets across India in 2Q 2012. Looking forward, we are expecting demand to be moderate amid a weaker global economic outlook.
2. 2Q 2012 | OFFICE
Research & forecast report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India office market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• GDP growth rate saw a sharp reduction to
5.3% during 1Q 2012. The most impacted Gross Domestic Product at factor cost
sector included agriculture, mining & 10.0%
9.0%
quarrying, manufacturing and construction. 8.0%
Prime reasons attributed to this were 7.0%
6.0%
uncertainties in domestic policy, cumulative 5.0%
impact of monetary tightening and slackening 4.0%
3.0%
of external demand. 2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
• Inflation as measured by the wholesale price
Jan - Mar 09
Apr - Jun 09
Jul - Sep 09
Oct - Dec 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jul - Sep 10
Oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 11
Apr - Jun 11
Jul - Sep 11
Oct - Dec 11
Jan - Mar 12
ECONOMIC BAROMETER index (WPI), was 7.55%, 7.23% & 7.69% in
May, April & March 2012, respectively. There
Jun-11 Jun-12
was upward pressure on the WPI, due to
FDI in Real Estate
steep price increase of vegetable, milk, pulses 16,000
REPO RATE 7.50% 8.00%
& protein based items. While inflation remain 14,000
a concern, the WPI stands 200 basis lower in
12,000
REVERSE REPO
6.50% 7.00% 10,000
RATE 2Q 2012 as compared to the same period last 8,000
INR Crore
CRR 6.00% 4.75% year. 6,000
4,000
• Early in this quarter, RBI cut the repo and
2,000
INFLATION 9.51% 7.55%
0
reverse repo rates by 50 basis points each to
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
2008 - 09
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
2011-12
April 12
PRIME
LENDING Rate
9.25% - 10.00% 10.00% - 10.50% boost the economy. However, the increased
DEPOSIT RATE
inflation rate has left a limited scope for
(<1 YEAR)
7.75% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.25% further reduction in repo rates.
BSE Sensex & Realty Index
Foreign Ex- 120
change 45.18 55.68 • The rupee remained under pressure and 115
INR - USD depreciated further against both the EURO 110
105
and the US Dollar as foreign investors were 100
INR- Euro 63.25 70.04
worried about persisting inflation, and the 95
high fiscal and current account deficit. The 90
85
Rupee closed at INR 55.68 to 1 USD and INR 80
Return on Alternative Investments 70.04 to 1 Euro as on 15th June 2012.
2-Apr-12
11-Apr-12
20-Apr-12
29-Apr-12
8-May-12
17-May-12
26-May-12
4-Jun-12
13-Jun-12
22-Jun-12
1-Jul-12
Jun-11 Jun-12 YoY %
• The Department of Industrial Policy and * Rebase to 100 BSE Sensex Realty Index
Change
Promotion (DIPP) recorded a total FDI inflow
Gold 22,114 30,097 36.10% for April 2012 in at $ 1.85 billion which is 41% 120
Exchange Rates
lower as compared to $ 3.12 billion in April 115
SILVER 52,590 54,494 3.62% 2011. The housing and construction sectors 110
contributed only 2.96% to the total FDI
105
EQUITY (BSE 100
received. 95
SENSEX) 18,132 16,949 -6.52%
90
REALTY INDEX 2,123 1,623 -23.55% 85
80
1-Apr-12
10-Apr-12
19-Apr-12
28-Apr-12
7-May-12
16-May-12
25-May-12
3-Jun-12
12-Jun-12
21-Jun-12
30-Jun-12
Note : As on 15th June 2012
USD Euro
* Rebase to 100
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. INDIA | 2Q 2012 | OFFICE
MUMBAI
AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
• During 2Q 2012, approximately 9.4 million
sq.ft. of grade ’A’ office space was available Goregoan / JVLR 8%
Kalina 1%
for lease and sale, primarily concentrated in
Worli / Prabhadevi 1%
Powai 4%
Andheri East, Lower Parel and Thane/ LBS Malad 5%
Thane / LBS 22%
Marg. Navi Mumbai 6%
• The city’s grade ‘A’ inventory was added by
CBD 1%
0.2 million sq.ft. of new supply in SBD this
quarter by “Star Hub” project of Star Lower Parel 19%
Developers at Andheri East. Andheri East 24%
BKC 9%
• During the surveyed quarter, construction
activities remained moderate. Due to a
slowdown in the economy, developers
MUMBAI remained cautious and hesitant in undertaking
2Q 2012 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE ’B’
further construction activities, thus, no new RENTAL VALUES
projects were launched in the market.
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER 300
• Rental levels of grade ‘A’ office space remained 250
1Q 2012 2Q 2012 stable across all the micro markets except 200
BKC (Bandra-Kurla-Complex) where rents 150
INR Per Sq ft Per Month
VACANCY increased by 3% q-o-q due to limited supply 100
and demand from corporates.
ABSORPTION 50
0
• Going forward, the rental values for grade ‘A’
CBD
Andheri East
BKC
Lower Parel
Malad
Navi Mumbai
Powai
Worli/Prabhdevi
Goregaon / JVLR
Kalina
Thane / LBS
Andheri East (IT)
Lower Parel (IT)
Malad (IT)
Navi Mumbai (IT)
Powai (IT)
Goregaon / JVLR (IT)
Thane / LBS (IT)
CONSTRUCTION
office space are expected to remain stable in
RENTAL VALUE almost all micro markets.
Grade A Grade B
• In this quarter, the state revenue department
revised the Land Lease Policy and imposed a
7.5% premium on the market value of the
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE land/plots leased for redevelopment of prime office space rental trend
residential, educational and religious activities,
245
whereas 10% for other activities.
420
Forecast
370
210
• During the same period, Peninsula Land sold 320
175
off its office building located at Lower Parel to 270
220
various financial services firms namely Tata
INR per Sq ft per Month
140
INR per Sq ft per Month
170
105 Capital, National Realty, India Nivesh Insurance 120
Brokers and Tata AIG Life Insurance.
70
70
20
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
35 2Q2012
0 CBD Andheri East Malad BKC
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
Lower Parel Navi Mumbai Powai Worli /
Prabhadevi
Goregaon Kalina Thane / LBS
/ JVLR
MARKET TRANSaCTIONS
CLIENT building name AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION
(Sq. Ft.) TYPE
Devon Supreme Business Park 56,000 Powai Lease
Famy Care Peninsula Corporate Park 15,000 Lower Parel Lease
Lodha I Think 40,000 Thane Lease
Reliance Digital Times Square 26,000 Andheri Lease
Tata Tesco Kohinoor Business Park 50,000 Vidyavihar Lease
Vships Lotus Midtown 27,000 Kalina Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
Colliers International | p. 3
4. INDIA | 2Q 2012 | OFFICE
DELHI
AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
• pproximately 1.0 million sq.ft. of grade ‘A’
A
office space was ready for lease / sale in Nehru Place 10%
2Q 2012 located mainly in Saket and Jasola
neighborhoods of Delhi. Connaught Place 2%
• Fast paced construction activities were Saket 29%
observed in a newly developed area near Delhi
Airport namely Aerocity. Two projects located
at Aerocity such as “Aria Signature Office” Jasola 59%
and “IBIS Commercial Tower” developed by
JW Marriot and IBIS Hotel respectively, added
approximately 0.2 million sq.ft. of commercial
grade ’A’ office during this quarter.
delhi • A new commercial project “Caddie Commercial
2Q 2012 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE ’B’
Tower”, was launched by Caddle Hotel with RENTAL VALUES
an area of 0.1 million sq.ft. in Aerocity. The
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER project is expected to be complete by end of 400
2013. 350
300
1Q 2012 2Q 2012
250
• Overall absorption was restrained in 2Q
INR per Sq Ft per Month
200
VACANCY 2012 in comparisons to last quarter as both 150
investors and end-users were following wait 100
ABSORPTION
and watch policy due to prevailing economic 50
CONSTRUCTION uncertainties. 0
Nehru Place
Jasola
Saket
Netaji Subhash
Place
Connaught
RENTAL VALUE • In 2Q 2012, rental values for grade ‘A’
Grade A Grade B
properties increased in the range of 2 to 7%
on q-o-q in locations such as Connaught
Place and Nehru Place, however negative
corrections in the range of 4 to 10% were
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE registered in Jasola and Saket. prime office space rental trend
280
• Office rent prognosis reveal further stability 450
245
Forecast
for grade ‘A’ office space in the market on 400
210
account of economy slowdown and limited 350
supply.
300
175
250
INR per Sq ft per Month
INR per Sq ft per Month
140 200
105 150
100
70
50
35
0
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2008
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2009
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2010
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
0
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
Nehru Place Jasola Cannaught Saket
place
Netaji Subhash
MARKET TRANSaCTIONS
CLIENT building name AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION
(Sq. Ft.) TYPE
Barista Independent Building 10,000 Okhla Phase I Lease
CPM C-126 12,000 Okhla Phase I Lease
Hitachi Konnectus 25,000 Minto Road, C.P Lease
Marico DLF Towers 4,300 Jasola Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 4 | Colliers International