Economic Capsule - February 2011

Research & Development Unit February 2011 Economic Capsule Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011 Economic Capsule February 2011

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Commercial Bank Breaks Rs 5 Bn PAT Barrier in Resurgent 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Back to Contents Research & Development Unit

Back to Contents Commercial Bank Performance 2006-2010 Source: CBC Annual Report 2010 Research & Development Unit

Back to Contents Consolidated Company Results (Profit After Tax) Rs. Mn Research & Development Unit 09 Months ended 31.12.2010 31.12.10 31.12.09 % Change Aitken Spence 2,193.1 1,911.6 14.7 JKH 6,142.3 2,540.2 142.0 Hayleys 843.8 1,319.4 (36.0) Hemas 974.7 549.0 77.5 12 Months ended 31.12.2010 SLT 3,943.0 778.0 407.0 Dialog Axiata 5,047.4 (12,208.2) 141.3

Back to Contents Branch Openings Research & Development Unit 189 Katukurunda 18 th MiniCom Centre @ Cargills 190 Wattala 05 th Service Point @ Arpico 191 K-Zone, Katubedda 06 th Customer Service Point 192 Hambantota

Free Lanka Group Launches Rs 1.5 bn IPO Union Bank IPO Oversubscribed 350 Times Back to Contents IPO News ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sri Lanka IPO Flow to Pick up Pace in 2011 Research & Development Unit

Back to Contents Eight Banks Selected to Participate in WB Supported Project to Improve Access to Finance in Sri Lanka ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Eight financial institutions have been selected to participate in a USD 57.4 mn World Bank (WB) project that supports the Sri Lanka Government’s efforts to improve access to finance for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) affected by the global financial crisis. Research & Development Unit

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Back to Contents Bullish on Lanka than Rating Firms ,[object Object],[object Object],HSBC Global Research - Asia’s Bond Markets According to analysts the sovereign rating upgrade from HSBC Global Research represents a very positive development for Sri Lanka in the international bond markets, which has further enhanced positive sentiment amongst global investors towards the country. “ With this upgrade to BB-, HSBC Global Research is now one step ahead of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, and this is likely to add pressure on the rating agencies themselves to upgrade Sri Lanka too,” analysts opined. Source: Daily FT 2011/03/04 Research & Development Unit Rating Agency Current /Outlook ,[object Object],BB- Stable ,[object Object],B+ Stable ,[object Object],B+ Positive ,[object Object],B1 Stable

Back to Contents IMF Releases the Sixth Tranche of USD 216.6 Mn under the SBA Facility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: CBSL & IMF Research & Development Unit Received on Tranche USD mn July, 2009 1 st 322.0 Nov, 2009 2 nd 329.0 June, 2010 3 rd & 4 th 407.8 Sep, 2010 5 th 212.5 Feb, 2011 6 th 216.6

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],External Trade – Dec 10 Back to Contents Crop Damage Due to Two Rounds of Floods in 2011 Research & Development Unit Category Jan - Dec 2009 US$ mn Jan - Dec 2010 US$ mn Change Jan - Dec (per cent) Exports 7,084.5 8,307.0 17.3 Imports 10,206.6 13,511.7 32.4 Balance of Trade -3,122.1 -5,204.7 -66.7 Workers’ Remittances 3,330.3 4,116.0 23.6 Areas affected: Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Kilinochchi, Ampara, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Mahaweli System B Mostly affected crops: Paddy, vegetables & other field crops (OFC) (maize, millets, pulses, condiments, onions, oil crops & potato Expected paddy production loss: 0.75mn Mt (24.5 %) Revised paddy production forecast for the Maha season: 2.3 mn Mt

Back to Contents Crisis in Middle East and North Africa A revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests have been taking place in the Middle East and North Africa since December 2010. To date Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have seen revolutions of historical consequence, Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, and Yemen have all seen major protests, and minor incidents have occurred in Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan and Syria. To date, two heads of state have been overthrown—Tunisia's on 14 January and Egypt's on 11 February, 2011. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Recent unrest in the Middle East pushed London crude prices to nearly USD 120 recently, their highest level since August 2008, exacerbating worries about inflationary pressures in emerging Asian economies. Research & Development Unit

Back to Contents Analysis & Forecast 6M The GDP growth rate for 1H 2011 is expected to be 5.0 % mainly due to the following factors: GDP Growth Rate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],F - Forecast, E - Estimate Cont… Research & Development Unit Period Growth Rate 3Q - 2010 8.0% 2010 E 8.0% 1Q - 2011 F 5.4% 2Q - 2011 F 4.6% 1H - 2011 F 5.0%

Back to Contents Analysis & Forecast 6M The rupee is expected to slightly appreciate viz. the USD during 1H 2011 in view of the following: Exchange Rate (Rs/USD) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],F - Forecast Cont… Research & Development Unit Period Exchange Rate 25 Feb 11 110.80 June 2011 F 109.5

Back to Contents Analysis & Forecast 6M Inflation is expected to record 6.6 % by end 1H 2011 due to the following: Inflation (Annual Average Change in CCPI) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],F - Forecast Cont… Research & Development Unit Period A. A. Feb 2011 6.1% End June 2011 F 6.6%

Back to Contents Analysis & Forecast 6M The low interest rate scenario can be expected to prevail in 1H 2011(albeit slightly higher than the current rates) in view of the following: Interest Rates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],F - Forecast Research & Development Unit Rate 25 Feb 11 % Jun 2011 % F PLR 9.13 9.20 T Bill- 03 months 6.97 7.20 T Bill- 12 months 7.33 7.40 AWFDR (Jan 11) 8.16 8.25

The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose. Those who feel that they have never made a mistake in their lives, have never tried a new thing in their lives. Albert Einstein

Economic Capsule - February 2011

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