Commercial Real Estate Market Update

2. Disclosures, page
Crude Oil – Facts and Fears
Houston Trends 2016
27 February 2, 2016
Brandon Blossman
bblossman@tphco.com

3. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
3

4. 4
Remember When Oil was a $100 Commodity?
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg (through 1/22/16)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
WestTexasIntermediate,$/bbl January 2012 - Current WTI Crude Oil
$100?
$30?

5. The Market Doesn’t Have a Clue About the Future
5
Source: Bloomberg, TPH & Co.
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
%Difference-Stripvs.Actual
Strip Too High
(Strip Too Low)

6. 6
Global Supply and Demand : Quarterly
84
88
92
96
100
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Supply/Demand(mmbbl/d)
Under/<Over>Supply(mmbbl/d)
Implied Inventory Change Supply Demand
Undersupplied
Oversupplied
Note: A “missing barrels” adjustment is made to projected inventories, but not shown on
this chart. Thus, they will not match with the supply and demand differences.

7. OECD Inventories
7
Source: IEA, TPH Research
2,200
2,700
3,200
Jan Apr Jul Oct
MillionBarrels
2015
Max
Min
Norm
2014
Sep & Oct inventories:
Built at ~normal pace, pointing to a
market approaching balance

8. The US Has Been The 800 Pound Gorilla Of Supply
Source: IEA, TPH & Co.
8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
ProductionGrowth(Indexedto1.0)
OPEC (ex. Saudi) OECD (ex. US) Non-Oecd (ex. Russia) Saudi Arabia United States Russia
Oil Production Growth By Country/Region

9. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
9

10. 10
The Shale Revolution
4
6
8
10
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
mmbpd
US Oil Production
1995-2015
Source: EIA

11. Brave New World…Same Old Rules Apply
11
Source: Holditch
Hard to find…easy to produce
Easy to find…hard to produce

12. 12
U.S. Rig Count Setting New “Shale Era” Lows
Sources: Rigdata, TPH Research
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
RigData US Land Rig Count
Rig count fell ~1,475
rigsor 62% peakto
trough(~8 month
troughingprocess)
Rig count currently
down>1,500 rigsor
70% peakto trough
(~15 monthsinto
thisbottoming
process). No
economicreasonfor
it to flatten/
reverse course with
oil ~$30-35/bbl.
~600 rigs currently drilling
2008 / 2009 troughed at ~900 rigs

13. Painful Realities of Current Macro Environment
13
* Refelcts a world where operators try to live within cash flow at $35/bbl oil and $2.35/mmbtu gas
** Still reflects industry cash flow outspend, asset sales / capital markets access will be needed to fund the spending gap
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Large-Caps Mid-Caps Small-Caps
2015 vs. TPHe 2016 E&P Capex Expectations
($Billions)
TPHe 2015 Capex TPHe 2016 Capex
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Large-Caps Mid-Caps Small-Caps
TPHe 2016 E&P Capex Delta vs. 2015
TPHe 2016 E&P Capital Expenditures TPHe 2016 Capex
Source: TPH Research, FactSet, Company Filings
 Our E&P coverage universe is looking to make
meaningful cuts to capex y/y 2016
 Companies and investors seem laser focused on
balance sheet preservation and ~$30/bbl oil has
enhanced E&P discipline / desire to live closer to
within cash flow.
 We believe overall E&P capex for our coverage
universe is biased down ~50% y/y at $35/bbl oil
and $2.35/mmbtu gas.

14. US Drilling Activity – Quick-Cycle Reaction
Source: RigData, TPH Securities
14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
U.S.LandRigCount
Week
Peak to Trough Rig Count:'08-'09 vs. Current
2008-2009 Current

15. 0
3
6
9
Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
USOilProduction,millionbarrelsperday
US Onshore
65kbopd monthly decline results in
~700kbopd annualonshore declinein 2016.
US Oil Production – Declines are Happening…Now!
15
Source: EIA, TPH Research
65 kbpd monthly decline
Onshore Annual Change
mmbpd kbpd
2014 6.8
2015 7.4 608
2016 6.7 (696)
Dec'16 less Apr'15 (1,507)

16. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
16

17. 17
Exports?...What About Imports?
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mmbpd
Venezuala
Mexico
Saudi
Canada
Others
US Still Imports ~40%
of Crude Supply

18. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
18

19. Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth – Ain’t Happening
19
20
25
30
35
40
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Non-OPECCrudeOilProduction(ex.US),mmbpd
USCrudeOilProduction,mmbpd
United States Non-OPEC ex. US
Source: EIA, TPH Research
Non-OPEC ex-US supply has been ~flat in recent years. We do not expect major
declines in ’16 or ’17 as projects in progress should offset declines. The big decline
risk starts in 2018 as project deferrals/cancelations start to impact supply

20. 20
OPEC: Volatility, Growth and Decline
Sources: IEA, TPH Research
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Production,millionbarrelsperday
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Rest of OPEC
1.5% annual decline
~200kbpd decline in 2016
Further, OPEC growth will come from Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Libya, as
second tier OPEC is in decline

21. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
21

22. Iran: The 1mmbpd Supply Risk?
22
Source: IEA, TPH Research
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Millionbarrelsperday
500 kbopd Increase
Sanctions
Post-sanctions, Iran should produce 3.3mmbpd…500kbpd higher than
current. But expect Iraq production to decline 200kbpd (leakage).

23. 1
2
3
4
5
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Millionbarrelsperday
Iraq
Iran
23
Iran and Iraq Leakage?
Sources: IEA, TPH Research
We assume only 200kbpd of cross border Iranian supply even
though a 1mmbpd decrease in Iranian supply corresponded with a
500kbpd increase in Iraqi production in 2012.

24. The News…
“Crude – Lower for (a Lot) Longer”
“Shale Oil – There will be Blood”
“US Oil Export Ban Lifted – Energy Security Gains”
“Saudi Wages Market Share War…Crushes Price”
“Oil Crushed on Threat of Iranian Exports”
“Softening Asian Demand Dooms Oil”
24

25. 25
Global Supply and Demand : Quarterly
84
88
92
96
100
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Supply/Demand(mmbbl/d)
Under/<Over>Supply(mmbbl/d)
Implied Inventory Change Supply Demand
Undersupplied
Oversupplied
Note: A “missing barrels” adjustment is made to projected inventories, but not shown on this chart. Thus, they will not match
with the supply and demand differences.
The market remains undersupplied, even with OPEC
increasing supply 1.2mmbpd in ‘17

26. Global Demand – The Big Uncertainty
26
Source: IEA, TPH Research
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Our assumption of 1.1% global demand growth in ’16 & ’17 is
consistent with the long term average growth rate

27. Global Demand
27
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Demand,mmbpd
OECD Demand
Non-OECD Demand
Non-OECD demand growth has been much
more resilient than OECD demand
Source: IEA, TPH Research

28. 28
Analyst Certification:
We, Dave Pursell, Barndon Blossman, Jeoffrey Lambujon, and Erik Stevens, do hereby certify that, to the best of our knowledge, the views and opinions in this research report accurately reflect our personal views
about the company and its securities. We have not nor will we receive direct or indirect compensation in return for expressing specific recommendations or viewpoints in this report.
Important Disclosures:
The analysts above (or members of their household) do not own any securities mentioned in this report.
For detailed rating information, distribution of ratings, price charts and disclosures regarding compensation policy and investment banking revenue, please visit our website at http://www.TPHco.com/disclosures or
request a written copy of the disclosures by calling 713-333-2960 (United States).
OTHER DISCLOSURES
Trade Name
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29. **Office of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP. Employed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP in the United Kingdom and is not registered/qualified with FINRA and is not an
associated person of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.
Anish Kapadia, Shola Labinjo, and David Gamboa are employed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP in the United Kingdom and are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Mr.
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companies, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
RESEARCH
W. Mark Meyer
713-333-2963
mmeyer@TPHco.com
Oil Service / E&C
Byron Pope
713-333-7690
bpope@TPHco.com
George O’Leary
713-333-2973
goleary@TPHco.com
Taylor Zurcher
713-333-2974
tzurcher@TPHco.com
Shola Labinjo**
+44 20 3008 6437
slabinjo@TPHco.com
Integrated Oils
Anish Kapadia**
+44 20 3008 6433
akapadia@TPHco.com
David Gamboa**
+44 20 3427 5896
davidgamboa@TPHco.com
Refiners
Chi Chow
303-300-1914
cchow@TPHco.com
Matthew Blair, CFA
303-300-1916
mblair@TPHco.com
Erik Stevens
713-333-3920
estevens@TPHco.com
TRADINGSALES
Houston
Clay Coneley
713-333-2979
cconeley@TPHco.com
Mike Bradley
713-333-2968
mbradley@TPHco.com
Rusty D’Anna
713-333-2982
rdanna@TPHco.com
Mike Davis
713-333-2971
mdavis@TPHco.com
Oliver Doolin
713-333-2989
odoolin@TPHco.com
John Hurd
713-333-2951
jhurd@TPHco.com
Aly McCaffrey
713-333-2983
amccaffrey@TPHco.com
Houston - (800) 507-2400
Scott McGarvey
smcgarvey@TPHco.com
Seth Williams
swilliams@TPHco.com
Ally Wickman
awickman@TPHco.com
New York - (800) 507-2400
Jason Barber
jbarber@TPHco.com
Denver
Win Oberlin
303-300-1919
woberlin@TPHco.com
New York
Craig Webster
212-610-1652
cwebster@TPHco.com
James Fitzgerald
212-610-1653
jfitzgerald@TPHco.com
Harry Grist
212-610-1654
hgrist@TPHco.com
London
Jonathan Wright**
+44 20 3008 6436
jwright@TPHco.com
Macro
Dave Pursell
713-333-2962
dpursell@TPHco.com
Brandon Blossman
713-333-2994
bblossman@TPHco.com
Midstream
Brandon Blossman
713-333-2994
bblossman@TPHco.com
Colton Bean
713-333-2966
cbean@TPHco.com
Erik Stevens
713-333-3920
estevens@TPHco.com
Utilities / Power
Neel Mitra
713-333-3896
nmitra@TPHco.com
Ryan Caylor
713-333-7694
rcaylor@TPHco.com
Kevin Vo
713-333-7689
kvo@TPHco.com
E&P
Matt Portillo
713-333-2995
mportillo@TPHco.com
Michael Rowe
713-333-3983
mrowe@TPHco.com
Jeoffrey Lambujon
713-337-7549
jlambujon@TPHco.com
Jamaal Dardar
713-333-3926
jdardar@TPHco.com
Sameer Panjwani
713-333-2996
spanjwani@TPHco.com
Oliver Huang
713-333-3929
ohuang@TPHco.com
E&P International
Anish Kapadia**
+44 20 3008 6433
akapadia@TPHco.com
Shola Labinjo**
+44 20 3008 6437
slabinjo@TPHco.com
David Gamboa**
+44 20 3427 5896
davidgamboa@TPHco.com

31. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
FAS 13 Change
• Effective January 2018-19
• ALL Leases over 12 months will be on the BALANCE SHEET
• Still two types –
• Capital Lease will be a “Finance Lease” (Type A) –
• Asset is a Finance Right of Use
• Operating Lease will still be “Operating Lease” –
• Asset is an Operating Right of Use
• Sale/Leaseback Accounting impacted – structure now as Finance
Lease – not operating or beneficial accounting treatment lost.
• All lease structuring will need more analysis to optimize.

32. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Jobs – Texas / U.S.
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
20.0%
Percent Change in Employment: Texas vs. US Minus Texas
December 2007 to December 2015
Texas U.S. Minus TX

33. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
2012 – Dr. Ray Perryman, the Perryman Group:
“For every oilfield job created – two jobs are created in Houston”
Jobs
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
Annual Job Growth
Forecast 21,000

34. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Jobs
-20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Financial Activies
Other Services
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Information
Construction
Government
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Houston 2015 Annual Job Growth
6.8%
5.3 %
-6.2%
2.7%
-3.5%
-7.4%
4.3%
1.4%
0.1%
0.1%
-1.4%
Energy

35. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Office Big Picture – End of Q4
Total Market – 225,864,400 SF
Vacancy increases 80 basis points to 15.4%
Absorption is up slightly, but still significantly low compared to average
Under Construction is slowing

36. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Houston Office – 212.9M SF
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2,707,107
3,147,990
4,327,159
5,283,149
5,654,193
6,039,320
Available Office Sublease Space
Houston, TX
Class A Class B
Available Sublease Space
Q4 2015
Class A: 6,039,320 SF or 4.9%
Class B: 1,872,129 SF or 2.1%
8.0M SF of Available Sublease Space

37. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Houston Office – 212.9M SF
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
$22.00
$24.00
$26.00
$28.00
$30.00
Houston Average Rent Houston Average Vacancy
Forecast

38. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Average
Class A
Vacancy:
14.8%
Houston Office
Class A Submarket Vacancy

39. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Houston Office
Class B Submarket Vacancy
Average
Class B
Vacancy:
16.7%

40. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Average Cap Rate (Yield)Average Price ($) Per SF
Sales by Total $ (mil)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
Data Source:
Houston Office – 212.9M SF

41. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Industrial Big Picture – End of Q4
Total Market – 512,487,900 SF
Vacancy increases 20 basis points to 5.0%
Absorption is down – Less New Construction
Under Construction is slowing

42. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
$5.00
$5.20
$5.40
$5.60
$5.80
$6.00
$6.20
$6.40
$6.60
$6.80
$7.00
Houston Average Rent Houston Average Vacancy
Houston Industrial – 512.5M SF
Forecast

43. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Average Industrial
Vacancy:
5.0%
Houston Industrial
Submarket Vacancy

44. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Sales by Total $ (mil)
Data Source:
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
Average Cap Rate (Yield)Average Price ($) Per SF
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
Houston Industrial – 512.5M SF

45. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Retail Big Picture – End of Q4
Total Market – 283,605,000 SF
Vacancy is remains steady at 5.8%
Absorption is up - Tenants move into newly delivered space
New Construction is slowing
Malls in motion – Baybrook and San Jacinto Mall Redevelopment (Fidelis), Greenspoint

46. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Houston Retail – 283.6M SF
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
$12.00
$12.50
$13.00
$13.50
$14.00
$14.50
$15.00
$15.50
$16.00
Houston Average Rent Houston Average Vacancy
Forecast

47. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Obligatory Numbers Chart
Property Type
Rentable
Area
Direct
Vacant SF
Direct
Vacancy
Rate
Sublet
Vacancy
SF
Sublet
Vacancy
Rate
Total
Vacancy
SF
Total
Vacancy
Rate
Q4 2015
Net
Absorption
Class A
Rental Rates
(in-line)*
Strip Centers (unanchored) 34,727,522 2,959,462 8.5% 32,992 0.1% 2,992,454 8.6% 106,978 $27.00-$45.00
Neighborhood Centers (one anchor) 70,949,103 6,642,494 9.4% 66,910 0.1% 6,709,404 9.5% 387,259 $28.00-$46.00
CommunityCenters (two anchors) 45,521,283 2,341,745 5.1% 67,939 0.1% 2,409,684 5.3% 69,947 $28.00-$45.00
Power Centers (three or > anchors) 25,664,500 979,702 3.8% - 0.0% 979,702 3.8% (36,106) $28.00-$45.00
Lifestyle Centers 5,239,605 259,759 5.0% 33,789 0.6% 293,548 5.6% 248,430 $40.00-$85.00
Outlet Centers 1,594,333 163,598 10.3% - 0.0% 163,598 10.3% 3,363 $20.00-$40.00
Theme/Entertainment 533,474 19,450 3.6% - 0.0% 19,450 3.6% (1,920) $25.00-$35.00
Single-Tenant 75,376,376 1,412,187 1.9% 25,728 0.0% 1,437,915 1.9% 234,763 N/A
Malls 23,999,275 1,341,442 5.6% 24,750 0.1% 1,366,192 5.7% 141,193 N/A
Greater Houston 283,605,471 16,119,839 5.7% 252,108 0.1% 16,371,947 5.8% 1,153,907

48. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
New Construction – 2016
Delivery Scheduled
2,709,629 SF
76% Pre-Leased
Grand Parkway & “Greenfield”
Dominant
Largest Projects:
Shoppes at Parkwest
Monzer Hourani
450,000 SF
100% Pre-Leased
Baybrook Mall Lifestyle
Expansion
General Growth
500,000 SF

49. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Active Larger (Anchor)
Tenants

50. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
High Street Home Run –
River Oaks District

51. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Sales by Total $ (mil)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
Average Cap Rate (Yield)Average Price ($) Per SF
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
Data Source:
Houston Retail – 283.6M SF

52. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Multi-Family Big Picture – End of Q4
Total Market – 606,431 Units
Absorption is down – Demand is slowing down
Under Construction – Inner Loop Hot Spot
Developers pushing new projects to 2018

53. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Current Multi-Family Projects
Under Construction – 98

54. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Houston Average Rent Houston Average Occupancy
Houston Multi-Family –
606.4K Units

55. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Data Source:
Average Cap Rate (Yield)Average Price ($) Per Unit
Sales by Total $ (mil)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13 Q4 '14 Q4 '15
Houston United States
Houston Multi-Family
606.4K Units

56. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Single Family Big Picture –
End of Q4
27,778 housing starts in 2015 down 7.1% over 2014
Metrostudy forecast for 2016 - 25,500 starts
Average 2015 Sales Price $280,290 up 3.7% from $270,182 in 2014
Months Supply – 3.2
2015 Home Sales 81,224 down from 2014 record high of 83,307
Slumping oil prices and limited inventory slow home buying for a third
straight month in December
Source: HAR, Metrostudy

57. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
• Consultants have seen a slight decrease in demand for services. But
for the most part they are staying busy, with layoffs only in their
energy sector studios.
• General Contractors continue to work through their backlog. Concern
is mounting for 2016 projects. Industrial, retail, and medical still
going strong.
• Subcontractors’ workload is still challenging their capacity.
Personnel that came to Houston during the “boom” now have the
option of returning home to a recovered local economy.
• Commodities have held steady, and in a few case decreased in cost.
But we haven’t seen construction material prices significantly
affected.
• Long lead delivery times for critical path material and equipment
continues to drive completion dates.
Construction Comments

58. Confidential – Colliers International 2016
Office
Retail
Hotel
Industrial
Apartment
Phase I
Recovery
Phase II
Expansion
Phase IV
Recession
Phase III
Oversupply
Rent
Increasing
Rents
Decreasing
Above Long-
Term Avg.
Occupancy
Below Long-Term
Avg. Occupancy
SELL
HOLD
BUY
Houston Commercial Real
Estate Market Cycle

59. Thank you, have a great 2016.