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Volume 22, Number 11 • November 2013
’13 Shaping Up Nicely — Economists
now have nine months of data to assess
the year’s performance. All but a few indicators suggest ’13 will be one of the
best years on record for Houston. Home
sales, auto sales, residential construction,
commercial leasing and airport traffic are
at or nearing record levels. If Houston can maintain the momentum, ’14 will prove to be a
stellar year as well. A few indicators do give pause for concern, however. The rig count
has flattened. Exports have slipped. Employment growth has slowed from a sprint to a
trot. And the national recovery has had so many false starts it should be disqualified.
So what does next year hold for Houston? On December 3, the Partnership will host the
Houston Region Economic Outlook which will include a morning panel discussion featuring experts from several key industries—energy, health care, and real estate—discussing
the state of Houston’s economy and the outlook for ’14. Panelists include:
• Mark A. Cover, Senior Managing Director and CEO, Southwest Region for Hines
• Robert C. Robbins, M.D., President and CEO, Texas Medical Center
• Darryl Wilson, Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer - Distributed Power,
GE Power & Water
Cover will serve as the outlook panel’s real estate expert. In recent months, Hines has
doubled down on Houston, recently announcing plans for a European-style residential
community on 46 acres off Old Katy Road, a 47-story, one-million-square-foot office
tower downtown, a 33-story, 327,000-square-foot luxury high-rise near Market Square,
and several other projects around town.
Robbins will serve as the panel’s health care expert. Health care accounts for nearly one in
nine jobs in the region. The mandates of the Affordable Care Act, the area’s aging population, and pressure from patients and insurers to contain costs have begun to impact the industry and, potentially, the region’s employment outlook.
Wilson will serve as the panel’s energy expert. Houston is home to 6,000 GE employees
and seven of the company’s business units, including Oil & Gas, Healthcare and Capital.
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 1
2. Wilson will provide his insights into the outlook for Houston’s energy and manufacturing
industries.
Shern-Min Chow, who co-anchors KHOU 11 News @ 4, will moderate the panel discussion, which begins at 10 a.m.
Those attending the morning session will receive a copy of Houston Economic Highlights,
48 pages of insights into economic and demographic trends in Houston over the past 10
years. You can find a copy of the Highlights publication distributed at last year’s event by
clicking here.
The luncheon portion of the outlook convenes at noon. Patrick
Jankowski, GHP’s Vice President of Research, will present
GHP’s employment forecast for ’14. (Click here to see GHP’s
forecast for ’13. At last year’s event, GHP forecast the region
would create 76,000 jobs this year. In the 12 months ending
August ’13, the latest month for which data are available, the
region created 80,600 jobs 1.
Follow me on
Twitter @PNJankowski
Subscribe to my blog
The Glass Half Full
also posted at
www.houston.org/economy
John Silvia, Managing Director and Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, will be the luncheon keynote speaker. Silvia is the current President-Elect of National Association for
Business Economics. Twice in the past three years, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
has acknowledged Silvia as having the best overall forecast of the U.S. economy. He is also on the Bloomberg Best List for his forecasts of GDP, the ISM manufacturing index,
housing starts and the unemployment rate. Silvia will present the U.S. economic outlook
following GHP’s regional outlook. For more about Silvia and Wells Fargo Economics,
click here.
Full-program tickets include the panel discussion, GHP’s forecast, the luncheon, the keynote speech, and a copy of Houston Economic Highlights. Luncheon tickets include only
GHP’s forecast and the keynote address. To register for the event, go to the Events section
of GHP’s webpage, www.houston.org, or click here.
Homes Sales on Record Setting Pace — Houston-area realtors sold 68,078 homes during
the first nine months of ’13, a 22.1 percent increase from the 55,760 homes sold during the
comparable period in ’12. If homes sales maintain its current pace, local realtors will sell in
excess of 90,000 homes this year, making ’13 the best year on record. The previous record
was set in ’06, when 88,799 homes were sold.
1
Copies of GHP’s forecast for ’13 and the Economic Highlights publication mentioned above can also be found at:
www.houston.org/economy
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 2
3. Units (000s)
Sales activity in the midUnit Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area, '04 - '14
’00s was influenced to a
100
Projected '13
Prior Peak,
large extent by subprime fi90,736 Units
'06
2
nancing. Homes sales to90
First Time
day are driven by more solHome Buyers
80
id fundamentals. The region
Tax Credit
has created more than
70
Influence of
300,000 jobs since HouSubprime
Financing
ston’s recession ended Jan60
uary ’10. New residents are
50
moving to Houston at the
Trough, May '11
59,577 Units
rate of 180 per day. Mort40
gage rates remain at historic
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
lows. The average rate for a
Source: Houston Association of REALTORS®
30-year conventional mortgage today is two percentage points below the ’07 level. And incomes are up. The U.S.
Census Bureau reports that median family household incomes in Houston stood at $65,854
in ’12, up 5.2 percent from ’09. That compares to a 2.4 percent increase for the nation as a
whole.
Several factors have combined to create a sense of urgency in the market. Active listings
have dropped from a recent peak of 55,247 in July ’10 to 32,457 in September ’13, a 42.2
percent decline in available inventory. A balanced market should have a six-month supply
of homes. (Month of inHOUSTON-AREA HOMES SALES
ventory is the number of
Annual Averages
months it would take to
Home
Inventory
Year
Median Price ($) Active Listings
deplete current active inSales
(months)
’06
87,799
148,350
44,032
5.3
ventory based on the pri’07
83,736
151,706
50,643
5.9
or 12 months of sales ac’08
69,336
150,724
50,946
6.3
tivity.) Houston now has
’09
63,801
150,963
45,286
6.1
a 3.2 month supply. Con’10
61,004
153,330
51,097
7.1
ventional mortgage rates
’11
63,606
153,618
48,800
7.1
have ticked up from 3.35
’12
74,163
162,752
40,247
5.1
percent in November ’12
’13
*90,736
178,237
33,591
**3.2
to 4.49 percent in Sep* projected
** As of 9/13
tember ’13. The median
Source: Houston Association of Realtors
price of a single-family
®
home sold through the Houston Association of Realtors rose from $164,800 in September
’12 to 181,570 in September ’13, a 10.1 percent increase. As a result, buyers are anxious to
2
By some estimates, subprime financing accounted for one in four loan originations nationwide in ’06, the peak of the subprime lending boom.
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 3
4. close on homes before prices and mortgage rates increase, inventory decreases further, or
another family outbids them.
A rule of thumb holds that a family can afford to purchase a home priced 2.5 to 4.0 times
their annual income. The median price of a single-family home was $181,570 in September, or 2.8 times the region’s median family income. That suggests local housing remains
affordable despite the recent boom.
Auto Sales Reflect Consumer Confidence — Houston-area auto dealers sold 265,594
new vehicles in the first nine months of this year, a 6.6 percent increase from the 249,093
sold during the same period in ’12. TexAuto Facts, published by InfoNation, Inc. of Sugar
Land, forecasts local auto dealers will sell more than 345,000 vehicles this year. If the
forecast holds, ’13 will be the fifth best year on record for local auto sales. The record was
set in ’01, when local dealers sold 371,160 vehicles. As with housing, auto sales are being
driven by population, employment and income growth along with a healthy dose of pentup demand. Houston is on pace to sell 127,000 more autos in this year than it did in ’09,
which marked the depth of the recession.
Vehicles sales are important for
several reasons. For one, more
400
than 35,000 people here work for
motor vehicle and parts dealers.
350
The purchase of new vehicles
speeds the replacement of older,
300
less-efficient and less environmentally friendly vehicles. Auto sales
250
generate tax revenue. The medianpriced vehicle sold for $33,330 in
200
September, generating nearly
$2,800 in state and local sales tax150
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
es plus additional fees. Perhaps
most important, vehicle sales are a
Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation
good gauge of consumer confidence. Rising sales suggest that consumers feel secure enough in their employment and
personal finances to sign a three-, four- or five-year loan commitment. It’s not a coincidence that the nadir for auto sales during the Great Recession, December ’09, closely coincided with the nadir for job growth, January ’10. Given the current pace of auto sales, consumer confidence in Houston appears to be quite strong.
Vehicles (000s)
Vehicle Sales, 12-Month Total, Houston Metro Area
Flat is the New Up — The Houston Airport System (HAS) handled 38,133,230 passengers
through the first nine months of ’13, a 0.3 percent uptick from 38,016,172 passengers handled during the same period in ’12. September year-to-date domestic traffic totaled
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 4
5. Domestic and International Passengers
Houston Airport System, '04 - '13
55
50
7.4
7.7
8.0
43.7
44.1
42.5
7.8
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.9
40.7
41.0
41.4
41.6
41.6
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
Domestic
International
Source: Houston Airport System, projections by GHP
45
Passengers (000,000)
31,300,732, essentially flat
compared
to
the
31,279,278
passengers
handled during the same
period last year. Year-todate international traffic
totaled 6,832,498 passengers, up 1.4 percent from
6,736,894 passengers handled during the same period in ’12 year. Houston is
on
pace
to
handle
50,481,559 passengers in
’13, which would be the
third best year on record.
'11
'12
'13*
40
6.4
35
38.5
6.9
41.1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
'04
'05
* Projected
The flattening in domestic
traffic and the uptick in international reflects a general trend in aviation and a specific
trend for Houston. U.S. carriers are more willing to eliminate poorly traveled routes, sacrificing market share for improved profitability. Service has been cut from both Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports to approximately 10 cities. Houston’s economy has become more globally focused. Twenty-five years ago, domestic passengers accounted for
92.2 percent of all HAS traffic, international for 7.8 percent. Today, domestic passengers
account for 82.4 percent, international for 17.6 percent.
International travel will continue to garner a growing share of the market. The city and
Southwest Airlines recently broke ground on a $156-million international terminal at Hobby. Starting in ’15, the five-gate facility will accommodate international flights for Southwest Airlines, with service reaching destinations in the Caribbean, Mexico and the northern
cities of South America.
More Pounding of Hammers — The City of Houston has issued permits for
$4.40 billion in construction
through September of this
year, a 23.2 percent increase
over the comparable period
in ’12. Residential permits
increased 28.1 percent, nonresidential permits 20.7 percent. Once a permit is isNovember 2013
HOUSTON-AREA CONSTRUCTION
City of Houston Building Permits - $ Millions
Sep YTD ’13
Sep YTD ’12
Residential
1,604.8
1,252.4
Commercial
2,798.4
2,318.4
Total
4,403.2
3,570.8
Source: City of Houston Department of Public Works and Engineering
% Change
28.1%
20.7%
23.3%
Metro Houston Construction Contracts - $ Billions
Residential
6,278.2
Commercial
2,220.8
Total
8,499.0
Source: McGraw Hill Construction
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
5,383.1
3,022.8
8,405.9
16.6%
-26.5%
1.1%
Page 5
6. sued, groundbreaking is imminent. Houston’s on pace to issue $5.8 billion in construction
permits this year, a 17.1 percent increase over last year, and a record for construction in the
city. McGraw Hill Construction reports that $8.499 billion in construction contracts have
been awarded in the Houston metro through the first nine months of ’13, a 1.1 percent increase from the $8.405 billion awarded during the same period in ’12. Once a contract has
been issued, construction usually starts within the next six months. Readers are cautioned
that McGraw Hill Construction contract data are subject to large revisions, usually upward.
$ Per Barrel, WTI
$ Per MCF, Hnery Hub
Mixed Oil and Gas — The Friday closing spot market price for West Texas Intermediate
(WTI)—the U.S. benchmark light, sweet crude—averaged $101.07 per barrel in October,
up 13.1 percent from its average of $89.39 in October ’12. The Friday closing spot market
price for Henry Hub natural gas averaged $3.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)
in October, up 9.1 percent
Oil and Natural Gas Prices
from its average of $3.36
Monthly Average
$16
$160
in October ’12. Though oil
Crude Oil
$14
$140
and gas prices are up
Natural Gas
$12
$120
slightly, the rig count has
$10
$100
dipped. Baker Hughes re$80
$8
ports that 1,744 rigs were
working in North America
$6
$60
in October, down 4.9 per$4
$40
cent from the 1,834 work$2
$20
ing last October. Though
$0
$0
the rig count has slipped,
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
production continues to
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. crude production to jump from 6.49 million barrels
per day (MMbd) in ’12 to 7.47 MMbd in ’13 and to 8.45 MMbd in ’14. The industry has
found ways to increase output while reducing labor and equipment inputs―a development
with implications for Houston’s employment growth in ’14 and beyond.
Shifting Trade Patterns — Through July of this year (the most current data available),
more than $144.4 billion in foreign trade has passed through the Houston-Galveston Customs District, down 11.5 percent from the $163.1 billion in trade handled in the first seven
months of ’12. Exports totaled $71.9 billion, down 0.1 percent from the $72.0 billion handled during the same period in ’12. Imports totaled $72.5 billion, down 20.4 percent from
the $91.1 billion handled over the same period in ’12. Reduced crude shipments accounted
for three-fourths of the decline, but imports of industrial machinery, electrical machinery,
steel and guar gum (a plant substance used in hydraulic fracturing), also have dropped.
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 6
7. Houston’s Absorbent State —
There’s no shortage of real estate
RETAIL
firms monitoring the local marMarket Size (Millions Square Feet)
ket. CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle,
Q3 ’13
192.771
458.266
207.134
and Colliers all report that
Q3 ’12
190.756
447.239
205.626
Vacancy Rate (%)
through September of ’13, HouQ3 ’13
12.1
5.1
7.4
ston has absorbed more office,
Q3 ’12
13.6
5.2
7.8
industrial and retail space than it
YTD Absorption (Millions Square Feet)
did during the
YTD Q3 ’13
3.536
4.010
1.479
first three quarters of last year.
YTD Q3 ’12
2.908
1.532
0.601
The energy and engineering secAvailable (Millions Square Feet)
tors are driving the office marQ3 ’13
23.391
38.331
14.824
ket. Companies are adding to
Q3 ’12
26.012
39.725
15.541
their
payrolls—and
space
Currently Under Construction (Millions Square Feet)
needs—as they develop shale
Q3 ’13
10.210
9.871
1.408
and oil and gas resources. These
Q3 ’12
3.949
3.796
1.426
firms in turn have driven the
Source: CBRE
need for oil field equipment and
logistics support, thus driving demand for industrial and warehouse space. Retail absorption is being driven by employment growth, wage growth and pent-up demand finally being met after the end of the Great Recession.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW
OFFICE
INDUSTRIAL
Data Lagging, and Maybe Employment — The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metro
Area added 57,400 jobs in the first seven months of this year, a 37.0 percent decrease
from the same seven months in ’12. Employment
METRO HOUSTON JOB GROWTH
growth in Houston began to slow in March and
January to August
Jobs
trended down through mid-year. However, it re’12
91,100
mains unclear whether that trend has continued into
’13
57,400
the fall. The October federal government shutdown
Difference
-33,700
has delayed release of 16 economic indicators com% Change
-37.0%
piled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This Source: Texas Workforce Commission
temporary lack of timely data poses a challenge for
economists and policy makers trying to understand the current state of the economy. The
jobs report is one of most important indicators that economists track. Employment growth
influences many other sectors—home sales, retail sales, auto sales, office leasing, home
construction, commercial construction, and more. The business community relies on employment reports to make spending, hiring and investment decisions. Jobs data for September and October won’t be released until December, by which time many firms will
have completed their plans for ’14.
Patrick Jankowski, Léonie Karkoviata, Ph.D. and Adam Perdue, Ph.D.
contributed to this issue of Houston: The Economy at a Glance
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 7
8. STAY UP TO DATE!
Are you a GHP Member? If so, log in to your account here and access archived issues of Glance
available only to Members. You can also sign-up RSS feeds to receive Houston’s latest economic
data throughout the month.
If you are a nonmember and would like to receive this electronic publication on the first working day
of each month, please email your request for Economy at a Glance to dmorrow@houston.org.
Include your name, title and phone number and your company’s name and address. For information
about joining the Greater Houston Partnership and gaining access to this powerful resource, call
Member Services at 713-844-3683.
The Key Economic Indicators table is updated whenever any data change — typically, 11 or so
times per month. If you would like to receive these updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by
commentary, please email your request for Key Economic Indicators to dmorrow@houston.org
with the same identifying information. You may request Glance and Indicators in the same email.
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 8
9. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Houston Economic Indicators
A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership
YEAR-TO-DATE TOTAL or
YTD AVERAGE*
MONTHLY DATA
Month
Most
Recent
ENERGY
U.S. Active Rotary Rigs
Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate)
Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub)
Oct '13
Oct '13
Oct '13
1,744
101.07
3.67
1,834
89.39
3.36
-4.9
13.1
9.1
1,761 *
98.45 *
3.67 *
1,944 *
95.53 *
2.60 *
-9.4
3.0
41.0
UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION
Houston Purchasing Managers Index
Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area)
Sep '13
Sep '13
60.8
4,962,735
59.4
4,875,211
2.4
1.8
58.8 *
39,003,592
59.4 *
38,515,346
-1.0
1.3
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
788,800,000
197,405,000
591,395,000
469,656,360
271,599,962
116,944,334
154,655,628
198,056,398
180,865,944
17,190,454
949,773,000
333,817,000
615,956,000
421,498,067
220,903,165
91,043,086
129,860,079
200,594,902
186,919,137
13,675,765
-16.9
-40.9
-4.0
11.4
22.9
28.4
19.1
-1.3
-3.2
25.7
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
7,466
181,570
32,457
5,938
164,800
39,319
25.7
10.2
-17.5
Aug '13
Aug '13
Aug '13
2,781,300
549,000
2,232,300
2,700,600
528,700
2,171,900
3.0
3.8
2.8
Aug '13
Aug '13
Aug '13
6.1
6.3
7.3
6.9
6.9
8.2
Aug '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
Sep '13
4,008,949
3,842,169
3,216,154
626,015
69,529
33,261
18,004
15,257
3,873,014
3,755,428
3,143,416
612,012
61,879
35,754
18,283
17,471
3.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
12.4
-7.0
-1.5
-12.7
30,067,075
38,133,230
31,300,732
6,832,498
603,106
305,960
163,186
142,775
29,384,017
34,144,982
28,148,468
5,996,514
548,128
278,547
144,273
134,274
2.3
11.7
11.2
13.9
10.0
9.8
13.1
6.3
Aug '13
4Q12
32,855
30,682
24,914
30,792
31.9
-0.4
265,594
107,511
249,093
100,873
6.6
6.6
Sep '13
Sep '13
208.575
234.149
203.959
231.4
2.3
1.2
204.900 *
232.870 *
202.500 *
229.330 *
1.2
1.5
1Q13
1Q13
1Q13
70.4
100.63
70.88
66.4
94.77
62.97
6.2
12.6
70.4 *
100.63 *
70.88 *
66.4 *
94.77 *
62.97 *
6.2
12.6
June '13
June '13
1,742
449
3,233
914
-46.1
-50.9
CONSTRUCTION
Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA)
Nonresidential
Residential
Building Permits ($, City of Houston)
Nonresidential
New Nonresidential
Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions
Residential
New Residential
Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity
Property Sales
Median Sales Price - SF Detached
Active Listings
EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg)
Service Providing
Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA
Texas
U.S.
FOREIGN TRADE (Houston-Galveston Customs District)
Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons)
Air Passengers (Houston Airport System)
Domestic Passengers
International Passengers
Landings and Takeoffs
Air Freight (metric tons)
Enplaned
Deplaned
CONSUMERS
New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA)
Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis)
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100)
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA
United States
Hotel Performance (Houston MSA)
Occupancy (%)
Average Room Rate ($)
Revenue Per Available Room ($)
POSTINGS AND FORECLOSURES
Postings (Harris County)
Foreclosures (Harris County)
November 2013
Year
%
Earlier Change
Most
Recent
8,499,045,000
2,220,849,000
6,278,196,000
4,403,178,060
2,798,413,708
1,366,998,468
1,431,415,240
1,604,764,352
1,430,736,019
174,028,333
68,078
178,327 *
32,787 *
2,770,088 *
542,150 0
2,227,938 0
6.3 *
6.5 *
7.7 *
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
10,361
2,685
Year
Earlier
%
Change
8,405,861,000
3,022,800,000
5,383,061,000
3,570,808,109
2,318,442,478
976,965,477
1,341,477,001
1,252,365,631
1,065,320,416
187,045,215
1.1
-26.5
16.6
23.3
20.7
39.9
6.7
28.1
34.3
-7.0
55,760
161,169 *
41,663 *
22.1
10.6
-21.3
2,668,900 *
516,113 *
2,152,788 *
3.8
5.0
3.5
7.1 *
7.1 *
8.3 *
18,747
5,199
-44.7
-48.4
Page 9
10. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
Sources
Rig Count
Spot WTI, Spot Natural Gas
Houston Purchasing Managers
Index
Electricity
Building Construction Contracts
City of Houston Building Permits
MLS Data
Employment, Unemployment
November 2013
Baker Hughes Incorporated
U.S. Energy Information Admin.
National Association of
Purchasing Management –
Houston, Inc.
CenterPoint Energy
McGraw-Hill Construction
Building Permit Department, City
of Houston
Houston Association of Realtors
Texas Workforce Commission
Port Shipments
Aviation
Car and Truck Sales
Retail Sales
Consumer Price Index
Hotels
Postings, Foreclosures
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Port of Houston Authority
Aviation Department, City of
Houston
TexAuto Facts Report,
InfoNation, Inc., Sugar Land TX
Texas Comptroller’s Office
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
PKF Consulting/Hospitality Asset
Advisors International
Foreclosure Information & Listing
Service
Page 10
11. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000)
Change from
July '13
Aug '12
% Change from
July '13
Aug '12
Aug '13
July '13
Aug '12
2,781.3
2,435.6
549.0
2,232.3
1,886.6
2,787.4
2,432.9
549.8
2,237.6
1,883.1
2,700.6
2,355.3
528.7
2,171.9
1,826.6
-6.1
2.7
-0.8
-5.3
3.5
80.7
80.3
20.3
60.4
60.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
3.0
3.4
3.8
2.8
3.3
Mining and Logging
Oil & Gas Extraction
Support Activities for Mining
109.2
58.7
48.9
108.2
58.0
48.7
103.0
54.8
47.0
1.0
0.7
0.2
6.2
3.9
1.9
0.9
1.2
0.4
6.0
7.1
4.0
Construction
188.5
189.6
180.3
-1.1
8.2
-0.6
4.5
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
251.3
171.2
80.1
252.0
172.0
80.0
245.4
165.6
79.8
-0.7
-0.8
0.1
5.9
5.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
0.1
2.4
3.4
0.4
Wholesale Trade
151.8
151.8
145.9
0.0
5.9
0.0
4.0
Retail Trade
285.9
284.6
276.8
1.3
9.1
0.5
3.3
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Utilities
Air Transportation
Truck Transportation
Pipeline Transportation
133.3
16.0
22.1
25.4
10.7
133.1
16.1
22.0
25.1
10.6
129.1
16.3
22.6
24.2
10.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
4.2
-0.3
-0.5
1.2
0.3
0.2
-0.6
0.5
1.2
0.9
3.3
-1.8
-2.2
5.0
2.9
Information
Telecommunications
32.7
15.5
32.8
15.4
31.8
15.1
-0.1
0.1
0.9
0.4
-0.3
0.6
2.8
2.6
Finance & Insurance
91.4
92.5
89.9
-1.1
1.5
-1.2
1.7
Real Estate & Rental and Leasing
52.0
52.2
50.9
-0.2
1.1
-0.4
2.2
427.0
200.9
24.2
19.2
72.2
27.8
202.2
193.3
81.3
424.2
198.7
24.3
19.1
71.7
27.5
201.7
192.8
80.4
415.0
195.8
24.0
19.2
67.0
27.0
196.4
187.3
75.0
2.8
2.2
-0.1
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.9
12.0
5.1
0.2
0.0
5.2
0.8
5.8
6.0
6.3
0.7
1.1
-0.4
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.2
0.3
1.1
2.9
2.6
0.8
0.0
7.8
3.0
3.0
3.2
8.4
47.0
46.3
45.9
0.7
1.1
1.5
2.4
Health Care & Social Assistance
295.3
294.2
283.0
1.1
12.3
0.4
4.3
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
30.6
31.2
29.4
-0.6
1.2
-1.9
4.1
Accommodation & Food Services
245.9
244.8
232.2
1.1
13.7
0.4
5.9
93.7
95.4
96.7
-1.7
-3.0
-1.8
-3.1
345.7
27.2
69.1
36.5
249.4
166.6
354.5
27.8
69.1
36.5
257.6
173.9
345.3
27.2
68.6
36.6
249.5
167.4
-8.8
-0.6
0.0
0.0
-8.2
-7.3
0.4
0.0
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.8
-2.5
-2.2
0.0
0.0
-3.2
-4.2
0.1
0.0
0.7
-0.3
0.0
-0.5
Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
Total Private
Goods Producing
Service Providing
Private Service Providing
Professional & Business Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Legal Services
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping
Architectural, Engineering & Related Services
Computer Systems Design & Related Services
Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation
Administrative & Support Services
Employment Services
Educational Services
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
State Government Educational Services
Local Government
Local Government Educational Services
SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 11
12. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX
HOUSTON & U.S. 2004-2014
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
HOUSTON
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
U.S.
Source: National Association for Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc.
HOUSTON MSA EMPLOYMENT
2004-2014
2,900
160
2,850
140
2,800
120
2,700
100
2,650
80
2,600
2,550
60
2,500
40
2,450
20
2,400
2,350
0
2,300
-20
2,250
-40
2,200
12-MONTH CHANGE (000)
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000)
2,750
-60
2,150
2,100
-80
2,050
-100
2,000
1,950
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
12-MONTH CHANGE
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
-120
Jan-14
JOBS
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 12
13. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
GOODS-PRODUCING AND SERVICE-PROVIDING EMPLOYMENT
HOUSTON MSA 2004-2014
560
2,300
550
2,250
540
2,200
GOODS-PRODUCING (000)
2,100
520
2,050
510
2,000
500
1,950
490
1,900
480
1,850
470
SERVICE-PROVIDING (000)
2,150
530
1,800
460
1,750
450
1,700
440
1,650
430
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
1,600
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-14
SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
HOUSTON & U.S. 2004-2014
11
10
9
PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
HOUSTON
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
U.S.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 13
14. HOUSTON—THE ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
SPOT MARKET ENERGY PRICES
2004-2014
24
100
20
80
16
60
12
40
8
20
4
0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
WTI Monthly
Jan-08
Jan-09
WTI 12-MO AVG
Jan-10
Jan-11
GAS MONTHLY
Jan-12
Jan-13
HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS ($/MMBTU)
28
120
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE ($/BBL)
140
0
Jan-14
GAS 12-MO AVG
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
INFLATION: 12-MONTH CHANGE
2004-2014
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
HOUSTON CPI-U
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
U.S. CPI-U
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
November 2013
©2013, Greater Houston Partnership
Page 14