CPPR 6th Quarterly Lecture by Dr. Sandeep Shastri on "Emerging Electoral Landscape : Analysis of Indian Democracy"

1. JAIN UNIVERSITY
Emerging Electoral
Landscape :
Analysis of Indian
Democracy
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)
SANDEEP SHASTRI
Pro Vice Chancellor, Jain University
National Coordinator, Lokniti Network

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Approaching the Theme
Using the
`Window`
Offered by
2014
Elections
Will 2014
confirm
existing
trends or
…
…is 2014
in any way
different?
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Nature and
Structure of the
Contest
• States at the Centre
• An attempt to make it a
Plebiscitary style race?
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Is there a
generation gap?
•What does AAP
represent?
•Citizen response?
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Three Visible Trends
Poor Rating of the UPA and its Implications
Consolidation by the NDA in its Strongholds
An emerging non-Congress, non-BJP alliance –
Third Front , Federal Front
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Explaining the Trends
• Vote Share
Shift
• Explaining this
shift
• Implications
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-10 -5 0 5 10 15
UPA
NDA
Others
-8
11
-3
UPA NDA Others
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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0 10 20 30 40
UPA
Manmohan Singh
UPA Manmohan Singh
Very dissatisfied 34 29
Dissatisfied 16 14
Intensity of Dissatisfaction

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Overall North Central West East South
26
22
27
30 30
23
52
59
53
52
50
46
Should UPA get another chance
Yes No

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10
45%
30%
6%
19%
Image of UPA
Very Corrupt Somewhat Corrupt Not at all corrupt Don’t Know
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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43%
29%
23%
5%
Why dissatisfied
Lack of Development/ poor
governance
Price Rise
Corruption
Other
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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-29
-22
-12
-19
-15
-12
-16
Metro India Town and
Cities
Villages Upper Class Middle Class Lower Class Poor
Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

13. JAIN UNIVERSITY
Support for NDA
• Positive image of the State
Governments
• Impact among young voters
– 18-25 : 15%
– 26-35 : 8 %
– 36-45 : 9%
– 46-55 :4%
– Above 56 -2%
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research

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The `Modi` factor
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
27
14 13
10
13
10
8
70
Modi Rahul
0 20 40 60
Party
Local candidate
PM Candidate
45
27
16
43
23
28
BJP supporters All
6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Third Front/ Federal Front
Keeping
their
Options
Open
• The
Numbers
Game
• Pre and
Post
Election
Allies
The Internal
Contradictions
• Divided we
Stand …
United we
Fall
• State Level
Contests
AAP as
a factor
• Its
Strategy
• Its
Appeal
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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To Summarize
Has the NDA
peaked too
early ?
Nature of
Alliances (open
or tacit) that
are emerging
Candidate
Choice
How close is
the front
runner to 272
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Post Poll Scenario
• A NDA led government
– X factors
– Expectations
• A Non Congress, Non BJP coalition
– Implications
– Stability
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)

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Questions
Comments
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6th Quarterly Lecture of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)