Brief Cross Basin Review
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Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Brief Cross Basin Review
- 1. First 4 BFPs nearing completion Niger
- 2. 6 remaining BFPs started in 2008 Niger
- 3. Broad review of basins • Development context – Overall situation • Water availability / use • Water productivity • Intervention and impact analysis – Intervention: what ‘they can do’ – Impact: what ‘you’ can do • Knowledge management – Not much to show at this stage
- 4. Background development context
- 5. • The poorest tend to rely on agriculture Agriculture vs GNI 50,000 Gross National Income ($/capita) 40,000 30,000 20,000 Size of bubble proportional to rural 10,000 population 0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -10,000 Agricultural contribution to GDP (% ) World Bank, 2007
- 6. Agriculture agriculture to GDP % Contribution of contribution to growth (%) Essential to understand relative function of agriculture volta Mekong Sao Karkheh Francisco World Bank, 2007 % Rural poor
- 8. Multiple water use reflects hydrology Suppy limit Capacity limit 1.0 Ganges ET / ETot p Sao Francisco 0.5 Mekong Volta Nile Limpopo Yellow River Karkeh Indus 0.0 Andean 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 Rain / ETpot
- 9. Ganges 1,167 bcm Water use supports varied livelihoods M eko ng 1,19 5 b cm Sa o Fr a nc i s c o 622 bcm Nile 2,042 bcm Suppy limit Capacity limit 1.0 Net runoff Indus 865 bcm Ganges ET / ETot p Sao Francisco Grassland ET Fish 0.5 Mekong Rainfed crops Lim popo 229 bcm Volta Crops Nile Irrigation ET Limpopo Yellow River Livestock Karkeh Indus Yellow 384 bcm Irrigation 0.0 Andean 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 K ar kheh 2 1, 4 0 2 mcm Rain / ETpot
- 10. Hydrology matters to livelihoods Songkhram Wet Songkhram Dry David Blake
- 11. Rainfed ag. by far the biggest user 0.35 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov 45000 Calculated 40000 Observed 35000 30000 Flow, 25000 20000 15000 10000 0.35 Rainfall 5000 Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0 0.20 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov Nile 0.35 Rainfall Evaporation or Rainfall (m) 0.30 ETo 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 From Kirby et al., W-Use Jan Feb M Apr M Jun Jul Aug Sep O N Dec ar ay ct ov
- 13. But irrigation a major user in Asia Ganges From Kirby et al., W-Use accounts
- 14. Grassland and rainfed dominate area Global Land cover classes – 2000 (UNEP)
- 15. But in Asia, irrigation drives up population density Irrigation (IWMI)
- 16. Population density (persons per km2) – (CIESIN -2000)
- 17. Basin water use and population (Preliminary analysis) Indus Ganges Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) population (millions) Mekong Yellow Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 population (millions) Relative values better than absolutes
- 18. Volta Lim popo Water use (m cm ) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0 population (m illions) population (millions) Sao Francisco Nile Water use (m cm ) Water use (mcm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (m illions) population (millions)
- 20. Basic concept: Need Water productivity to respond faster than demand Demand response line WP crisis time
- 21. In some places, water productivity is responding to demand 0.800 3 VN, Mekong Delta Rice Water productivity, kg/m 0.600 Vietnam VN Central Highlands 0.400 Laos 0.200 Cambodia NE Thailand 0.000 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Mac Kirby, 2007
- 22. Other basins, response low or patchy Volta IRD, 2007 Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
- 23. Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water consumed] much lower than potential Volta IRD, 2007 Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
- 24. Other crops • Sugar and maize • Thailand high • Generally increasing 6.00 Laos 5.00 Maize yield, ton/ha Thailand 4.00 3.00 Cambodia 2.00 Vietnam 1.00 Vietnam Central 0.00 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year 80 Laos Sugarcane yield, ton/ha 60 Thailand 40 Cambodia Vietnam 20 Vietnam Central 0 highlands 1990 1995 2000 2005 Vietnam Mekong River Delta Year
- 25. Full range of WPr may include • Irrigated crops • Rainfed • Livestock • Fisheries – Capture – Aquaculture …most systems highly mixed
- 26. Water agriculture and poverty Measurable livelihood impacts
- 27. Water availability seems less influential than gain per volume used (water productivity) Per capita income vs. GNI vs Water water availability 50,000 40,000 GNI ($/cap PPP) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -10,000 Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP 3 Water availability (m /cap) World Bank, 2007
- 28. São Francisco: Drought is one poverty factor…of many Drought Poor education Access to credit Marcello Torres et al., 2008
- 29. Karkheh, Iran: Farmers not the poorest politics controls 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 KB ed r er k er r ry n ke ke er so nt ag rm oy or Cl r ou wo er an Fa pl w ep C m M d n e lle ad io Un ct ki Tr du ns o U Pr Poverty lines from household Karkheh BFP team income and expenditure data
- 30. .. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets Dam development Changing land use, shifting cultivation, sustainability, sedimentation Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity Fish & environmental impacts of upstream Salinisation, water quality, highly developed Complex but understandable Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008 Syngenta Science Day 2009
- 31. Interventions
- 32. Global -to local GLOBAL water and food systems considered separately both impact on livelihoods Basin scale Systems interact through (Unspecified) transfers Local Scale Local systems considered individually Local impact not referenced to broader systems
- 33. Opportunities or pressures vary from basin to basin Remember development trajectory Niger Markets Climate change Population growth Need for ecosystem services
- 34. Impact pathway and Knowledge management • All impact pathways done – All honest efforts • Pathway depends on basin scale, organization, existing network makers, etc.. • Getting better engagement with CPWF – Some more work needed with Topics
- 35. Agenda