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Dieter Kirschke

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Dieter Kirschke

  1. 1. Trends in agricultural productivity in the EU (and a comparison with the USA)<br />Dieter Kirschke Humboldt University of Berlin<br />Presentation on the workshop “The outlook for EU agriculture: Causes, constraints and challenges for productivity”,organized by ECPA, Fertilizers europeandcopa-cogega,Brussels, June 29, 2011<br />
  2. 2. Contents<br />Problem setting<br />Definitions and theoretical background<br />Productivity trends in EU agriculture<br /><ul><li>Productivity and the world food equation
  3. 3. Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy?</li></li></ul><li>Problem setting<br />Productivity in “traditional” agricultural policy-making<br />Productivity under the “treadmill”: Changing policy objectives and priorities<br />Productivity under the new “price boom”<br />Is it time to rediscover productivityas a key driver of agricultureand important policy objective?<br />
  4. 4. Definitionsandtheoreticalbackground<br />Productivity <br />Land productivity<br />Labor productivity<br />Total factor productivity<br /> –productionelasticity / costshare<br />
  5. 5. Land productivitydevelopment in wheatproductionin selected EU memberstates, 1961-2009, in t/ha<br />Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).<br />
  6. 6. Land productivity development in wheat production in selected regions of the world, 1961-2009, in t/ha<br />Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).<br />
  7. 7. Value added in agriculture per worker in selected EU member states, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD<br />Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).<br />
  8. 8. Value added in agriculture per worker in selected world regions, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD<br />Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).<br />
  9. 9. Total factorproductivitygrowthbyregion, averageannualgrowth rate, in percent<br />Source: Fuglie (2008).<br />
  10. 10. Total FactorProductivityaccountsfor a risingshareofagriculturalgrowthover time<br />Averageannualoutputgrowth rate (percent)<br />Source: Fuglie (2010a).<br />
  11. 11. Is there a slowing down of productivity growth?<br />The World Bank (WDR 2008) has initiated the debate.Some arguments:<br />Public R&D funding:<br />Slowing down<br />Priority change<br />EU policy and regulatory framework:<br />Extensification<br />GMO policy<br />Global aspects<br />Land availability<br />Use of marginal land<br />Resource degradation / soil erosion<br />
  12. 12. Productivity and the world food equation (I)<br />Productivitygrowth<br />Demand in emergingmarkets<br />1<br />2<br />QS = QDFood + QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel<br />3<br />Energyprice<br />with p – price, – supply elasticity, – demand elasticity, – income elasticity<br /> T – technology factor, POP – population factor, Y – income<br />
  13. 13. Emissionsof CO2-eqivalents in EU agriculture<br />Source: Lesschen et al. (2011).<br />
  14. 14. Productivity and the world food equation (II)<br />Productivitygrowth<br />Demand in emergingmarkets<br />1<br />2<br />QS = QDFood + QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel<br />5<br />3<br />6<br />4<br />Climatechange<br />Bioenergypolicy<br />Env./climateprotection<br />Energyprice<br />with CC – climate change (production) effect, ECP – environmental and climate protection (production) effect, BE – bioenergy policy (production) effect<br />
  15. 15. Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy?<br />It is time to rediscover productivity!<br />Re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand(Environmental policies, feed and animal production, future mitigation and current bioenergy policies) <br />Perspective: Intelligent and sustainable intensification and productivity increase<br />R&D policy: volume and focus reliable and supportive framework<br />Global implications and EU responsibility<br />Reshaping the CAP and the 2nd pillar?<br />

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