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Trends in agricultural productivity in the EU (and a comparison with the USA) Dieter Kirschke Humboldt University of Berlin Presentation on the workshop “The outlook for EU agriculture: Causes, constraints and challenges for productivity”,organized by ECPA, Fertilizers europeandcopa-cogega,Brussels, June 29, 2011
Contents Problem setting Definitions and theoretical background Productivity trends in EU agriculture ,[object Object]
Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy?,[object Object]
Definitionsandtheoreticalbackground Productivity  Land productivity Labor productivity Total factor productivity     –productionelasticity / costshare
Land productivitydevelopment in wheatproductionin selected EU memberstates, 1961-2009, in t/ha Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).
Land productivity development in wheat production in selected regions of the world, 1961-2009, in t/ha Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).
Value added in agriculture per worker in selected EU member states, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).
Value added in agriculture per worker in selected world regions, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).
Total factorproductivitygrowthbyregion, averageannualgrowth rate, in percent Source: Fuglie (2008).
Total FactorProductivityaccountsfor a risingshareofagriculturalgrowthover time Averageannualoutputgrowth rate (percent) Source: Fuglie (2010a).
Is there a slowing down of productivity growth? The World Bank (WDR 2008) has initiated the debate.Some arguments: Public R&D funding: Slowing down Priority change EU policy and regulatory framework: Extensification GMO policy Global aspects Land availability Use of marginal land Resource degradation / soil erosion
Productivity and the world food equation (I) Productivitygrowth Demand in emergingmarkets 1 2 QS	=	QDFood	+	 QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel 3 Energyprice with p – price,      – supply elasticity,      – demand elasticity,     – income elasticity        T – technology factor, POP – population factor, Y – income
Emissionsof CO2-eqivalents in EU agriculture Source: Lesschen et al. (2011).
Productivity and the world food equation (II) Productivitygrowth Demand in emergingmarkets 1 2 QS	=	QDFood	+	 QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel 5 3 6 4 Climatechange Bioenergypolicy Env./climateprotection Energyprice with CC – climate change (production) effect, ECP – environmental and climate protection (production)  effect, BE – bioenergy policy (production) effect
Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy? It is time to rediscover productivity! Re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand(Environmental policies, feed and animal production, future mitigation and current bioenergy policies)  Perspective: Intelligent and sustainable intensification and productivity increase R&D policy: 	volume and focus	reliable and supportive framework Global implications and EU responsibility Reshaping the CAP and the 2nd pillar?
Dieter Kirschke

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Dieter Kirschke

  • 1. Trends in agricultural productivity in the EU (and a comparison with the USA) Dieter Kirschke Humboldt University of Berlin Presentation on the workshop “The outlook for EU agriculture: Causes, constraints and challenges for productivity”,organized by ECPA, Fertilizers europeandcopa-cogega,Brussels, June 29, 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Definitionsandtheoreticalbackground Productivity Land productivity Labor productivity Total factor productivity –productionelasticity / costshare
  • 5. Land productivitydevelopment in wheatproductionin selected EU memberstates, 1961-2009, in t/ha Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).
  • 6. Land productivity development in wheat production in selected regions of the world, 1961-2009, in t/ha Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011c).
  • 7. Value added in agriculture per worker in selected EU member states, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).
  • 8. Value added in agriculture per worker in selected world regions, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD Source: Ownfigurebased on World Bank (2011).
  • 9. Total factorproductivitygrowthbyregion, averageannualgrowth rate, in percent Source: Fuglie (2008).
  • 10. Total FactorProductivityaccountsfor a risingshareofagriculturalgrowthover time Averageannualoutputgrowth rate (percent) Source: Fuglie (2010a).
  • 11. Is there a slowing down of productivity growth? The World Bank (WDR 2008) has initiated the debate.Some arguments: Public R&D funding: Slowing down Priority change EU policy and regulatory framework: Extensification GMO policy Global aspects Land availability Use of marginal land Resource degradation / soil erosion
  • 12. Productivity and the world food equation (I) Productivitygrowth Demand in emergingmarkets 1 2 QS = QDFood + QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel 3 Energyprice with p – price, – supply elasticity, – demand elasticity, – income elasticity T – technology factor, POP – population factor, Y – income
  • 13. Emissionsof CO2-eqivalents in EU agriculture Source: Lesschen et al. (2011).
  • 14. Productivity and the world food equation (II) Productivitygrowth Demand in emergingmarkets 1 2 QS = QDFood + QDFeed+QDFiber+QDFuel 5 3 6 4 Climatechange Bioenergypolicy Env./climateprotection Energyprice with CC – climate change (production) effect, ECP – environmental and climate protection (production) effect, BE – bioenergy policy (production) effect
  • 15. Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy? It is time to rediscover productivity! Re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand(Environmental policies, feed and animal production, future mitigation and current bioenergy policies) Perspective: Intelligent and sustainable intensification and productivity increase R&D policy: volume and focus reliable and supportive framework Global implications and EU responsibility Reshaping the CAP and the 2nd pillar?