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OSCAR INDEX || BY S.T. VANAIRSDALE || 01 26 2011 5:20 PM
Oscar Index: Social Network, King’s Speech Resume Steel-Cage
Death Match
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So you’ve probably heard about yesterday’s Academy Award nominations. Pretty interesting, if
you’re into that kind of thing. And really, who isn’t? More importantly, who isn’t into Movieline’s
Oscar Index, which went a respectable 30 for 35 in its inaugural attempt to narrow down this year’s
nods to a science? Let’s break it all down — and see what it means for the Oscar home stretch:
[Click the graphs for larger images]
Michelle Williams on Meek’s Cutoff,
Goodbyes and Getting Lost At the
Movies
The Nominees:
1. [tie] The Social Network
1. [tie] The King’s Speech
3. True Grit Bridesmaids
Kristen Wiig co-writes and leads this raunchy
4. The Fighter ensemble comedy from director Paul Feig
5. Inception (Univ ersal)
6. Black Swan Priest
7. The Kids Are All Right Paul Bettany takes on post-apocaly ptic
8. Toy Story 3 v ampires; Karl Urban and Cam Gigandet co-star
(Screen Gems)
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter’s Bone Everything Must Go
Will Ferrell's relapsed alcoholic starts ov er in
this Ray mond Carv er adaptation (Roadside
Notes: Before we get too far into this, let’s first give a round of applause to Harvey Weinstein: The Attractions)
Oscar Whisperer’s extraordinary awards-hoarding talents were on full display as The King’s Speech
shocked Hollywood with a Producers Guild win for Best Picture — then followed that up with a Hesher
Nihilistic wild man Joseph Gordon-Lev itt
season-best 12 Academy Award nominations. On the one hand, it wasn’t so hard to see the dozen nods radically changes a y oung boy 's life; Natalie
coming down the pipe (it’s not like Social Network was going to get costume and art-direction nods, Portman co-stars (Newmarket)
after all). On the other, from that PGA loss to Oscar oversights like Best Supporting Actor, senior Skateland
Academy voters appeared to be putting TSN in its place after an unprecedented run through previous A group of friends comes to grips with their
changing small town in early -'80s Texas
critics and guild awards announcements. “It’s a revolt, is what it is,” wrote Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood

2. critics and guild awards announcements. “It’s a revolt, is what it is,” wrote Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood (Freesty le)
Elsewhere. “It’s the old getting onto the young and saying ‘no… no! Our most highly honored film
can’t be about kids talking about computer codes…. no!” Meanwhile, Dave Karger played his
longstanding King’s Speech allegiance cool, noting only, “Whatever ends up happening, it’s clear that
despite The Social Network’s critic-award sweep, we actually have a close contest for the Oscar.”
Screw “close,” though. I’d say in pundit perception terms alone this week — and with Harvey
Thor PA RA MOUNT $66.00M
creatively courting the Academy’s biggest voting bloc while quickly developing new box-office- $66.00M
boosting strategies — this race is dead even. Fast Five UNIV E RS A L $32.52M
$139.85M
And then there’s True Grit, the ultimate wild card in all of this. With 10 nominations of its own — Jumping The Broom TRISTA R $13.70M
including an equally shocking supplanting of Christopher Nolan in the Director category — it has $13.70M
plenty of true believers around the Academy. It has two distinct disadvantages, however: The Something Borrowed WB $13.15M
$13.15M
preferential Best Picture balloting system doesn’t quite allow for the kind of vote-splitting we all
Rio FOX $8.20M
assume resulted in Crash’s plurality-based victory in 2006; and the Coens, who edit their own films $114.90M
under the nom de splice Roderick Jaynes, were snubbed in the Editing category. And, as Paul Water For Elephants FOX $5.60M
Sheehan points out at Gold Derby, “Ever since the Oscars introduced an award for editing in 1934, $41.61M
only nine movies have won Best Picture without at least being nominated for the editing Academy Madea's Big Happy LGF $3.90M
Family $46.81M
Award.” Depending on whom you ask (cough, Scott Rudin, cough), this latter detail may seem like
more of a historical fluke than campaign hurdle. Nevertheless it’s a problem — and one Paramount Prom DIS NE Y $2.42M
$7.80M
must address to sustain its own momentum this week.
Soul Surfer TRISTA R $2.10M
$36.68M
As far as the rest, what can I say? Winter’s Bone is blowing my mind right now with four nominations Hoodwinked Too! TWC $1.88M
in big-time categories (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay), but that’ll pass — $6.71M
though am I the only one who can foresee Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini pulling some Geoffrey
Fletcher-over-Jason Reitman type of upset over Aaron Sorkin? It’s not like they have to beat him and
King’s Speech screenwriter David Seidler. Think about it. Oh: And sorry, Ben Affleck. The Town was
good. It was very good. Alas.
I had high hopes for Miral, since
director Julian Schnabel’s last
feature, The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly, was one of my favorite
movies of the past decade. But
Schnabel is out of his element here.
His movie comes off as a stiff lesson
plan; his gift for subtlety seems
temporarily lost.
MOVIELINE RATING: 4 || READ MORE
The Nominees:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
3. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

3. Aronofsky’s nomination.) But what isn’t anyone’s guess is that Hooper — who apparently survived
having “literally jumped out of my skin” after Saturday night’s upset — is riding his film’s PGA/Oscar
nom wave all the way to a direct showdown with Fincher on Feb. 27.
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