IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change: impacts and adaptation
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change: impacts and adaptation by Ms Lucka Kajfez Bogataj, Former IPCC WG II Vice-chair [PDF]
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change: impacts and adaptation
- 1. g IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change: impacts and adaptation Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana IPCC WG2 vicechair through AR4
- 2. Following addressed: • Impacts observed so far • Future scenarios • Impacts on sectors • Water • Ecosystems • Agriculture, forestry, fisheries • Coasts • Settlements and industry • Health • Impacts on regions (Asia, Australia.... Europe..)
- 3. Leaf unfolding dates in EuropeLeaf unfolding dates in Europe
- 4. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. Field
- 5. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia
- 6. UTC 13:00 Heat stress Cold stress light extreme high moderate light comfortable moderate high extreme Heat wave of 2003, the largest humanitarian natural catastrophe in Europe for centuries 15,000 † 15,000 † 7,000 † 7,000 † 4,000 † 4,000 † 2,000 † 2,000 † 2,000 † 2,000 † 4,000 † 4,000 † Perceived Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality Source: German Weather Service, 2004
- 7. Climate change impacts transpire gradually from the natural environment into the economies and society Water Soil Nature Air Biodiversity Ecosystem
- 8. Water
- 9. Projected impacts of climate change 1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions FoodFood WaterWater EcosystemsEcosystems Risk of Abrupt andRisk of Abrupt and Major IrreversibleMajor Irreversible ChangesChanges Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs ExtremeExtreme WeatherWeather EventsEvents Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions
- 10. Impacts – Marine & terrestrial ecosystems +1-2 °C : negative impacts for some systems (e.g. Coral bleaching, endemic plants & fauna in S-Africa, polar systems) +2-3 °C : major biome changes very likely (e.g. coral mortality, 20-80% loss of Amazonian rainforest, globally 20-30% species extinction) > +3 °C : widespread, heavy impacts on biomes, globally significant extinctions
- 12. Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050
- 13. Agriculture Yield fall, droughtS Europe Increased crop varieties & yields, but more disease N America, Europe, Rus. Increased disease; lower yields, droughtsAfrica Increased storms; lower yields; increased drought S America & Caribbean Increased flooding; increased drought; increased disease S Asia Increased storm activity & intensityEast Asia Worse droughts; desertification of farmlandAustralia ImpactsRegion Globally there will be some gains in potential agricultural land by 2080, but losses of up to 9% in sub-Saharan Africa.
- 14. More extreme weather events
- 15. Industry and settlements • The most vulnerable are • those in coastal and river flood plains, • those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and • those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas.
- 16. Human health, already compromised by a range of factors, could also be further negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability Negative Impact Positive Impact
- 17. Vulnerability of coastal deltas • Coastal wetlands including salt marshes and mangroves will be negatively affected by sea-level rise. • Many millions more people are to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. • The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable. Extreme > 1 million; high =1 million – 50,000; medium 50,000 – 5000. Population potentially displaced by current sea level trends to 2050
- 18. Regions most affectedRegions most affected Vulnerable systems and sectorsVulnerable systems and sectors • The Arctic • Sub-Saharan Africa • Small islands • Asian megadeltas • Some ecosystems Coral reefs; sea-ice regions Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions • Low-lying coasts mangroves & salt marshes • Water resources in mid- latitudes & dry Tropics • Low-latitude agriculture • Human health where adaptive capacity is low
- 19. Increased water availability (2070 ca.↑1/5) Increased forest growth (only in the beginning?) Increased yields (only in the beginning? ) Decreased yields Decreased water availability ( 2070 ca.↓1/3) Increased fire risk S EuropeN Europe Europe North ↔ South differences
- 20. Adaptation will be necessary to address unavoidable impacts
- 21. Adaptation/Mitigation • Some adaptation is occurring now, faces limitations and barriers • Other stresses can exacerbate vulnerability • Vulnerability depends also on development paths • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability • Mitigation can reduce, delay or avoid impacts
- 22. A global shift southward PRUDENCE project; Results based on HadRM3H
- 23. SUMMARY human development tipping points Reduced agricultural productivity Heightened water insecurity Increased exposure to extreme weather events Collapse of ecosystems Increased health risks
- 24. CONCLUSIONS • Natural and human systems are being affected by regional climate changes • Impacts are expected to increase with increases in global average temperature. • Adaptation can reduce vulnerability, especially in the short-term.