The extensive interview with Dr. Gupta contains references, analysis and insight into the “challenges of the commons” faced globally, including: • Energy and water resources and their implications for development and foreign affairs; • Climate change, carbon emissions equations and the response of nature; • Discussions about natural gas and nuclear energy and waste; • And, the geopolitics and economics surrounding the energy- water nexus, with references to China and India.

1. ‘
‘ Global Themes
an issues brief series of the Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
DCFR
Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
Issue No. 6 September 21, 2012
Energy-­water nexus and sustainability
An Interview with Dr. Rajan Gupta, Los Alamos National Laboratory
The following interview contains “International pipelines could become tremendous mechanisms for cooperation.
references, analysis and insight into Like oil pipelines, all transit countries between the suppliers and consumers have
the “challenges of the commons”
to cooperate. ”
faced globally, including:
their implications for development the atmosphere over the last 10 years and if the earth was warming? The
and foreign affairs;; is due to the increased use of coal, in answer is unequivocal. We would see
particular by China. high temperatures and more intense
storms. High temperatures are due
equations and the response of nature;; JW: What do you decipher from the to the increased greenhouse effect.
hot temperatures we have seen in the Higher temperatures mean more
nuclear energy and waste;; U.S. this summer? energy in the atmosphere and more
evaporation of water from the oceans
RG: It is hard to convince people that
and land. More energy and more
these high temperatures represent
water in the atmosphere translate into
water nexus, with references to China climate change because of the huge
heightened severity of storms.
and India. natural variations;; the day and night
temperature may vary by over 40 Therefore, we are observing exactly
what you would expect to see if
seasonal and annual changes that
Warming, Carbon and Climate
result in warmer and colder years. yet, people prefer to explain away
Jennifer Warren: Since the 1970s, how When people see half a degree
would you characterize the land difference compared to a previous
temperature rises? year, they may believe ‘this is so a challenge to convince many
small compared to natural variation,’ climate change skeptics. The fact is
Rajan Gupta: The earth has been or ‘we’ve seen hot seasons before.’
warming steadily since 1970. This They miss the overall trend showing
temperature rise is correlated with the gradual increase observed over Dr. Rajan Gupta, Laboratory Fellow of
the burning of fossil fuels and the the last 40 years. One has to look at the Los Alamos National Laboratory,
accumulation of greenhouse gases trends over many decades to average presented his work on the energy-­water
in the atmosphere, in particular nexus and resource implications at DCFR
carbon dioxide (CO2), having a these show warming. on August 29, 2012. The program on
lifetime of thousands of years. The sustainability is part of Series “D,” focusing
acceleration in the increase of CO2 in One might ask what is expected
on development issues.
if climate change was happening
4925 Greenville Ave, Suite 1025 | Dallas, Texas 75206 | 214.750.1271 | dallascfr.org

2. 2
that changes are accumulating over due to the additional greenhouse emission globally so that in roughly
gases. So, based on the effects we 30 years you are down to essentially
to increasing emissions of greenhouse are already seeing, 550 ppm could be zero, i.e., a few gigatons a year
gases. catastrophic. that nature can fully recycle. If you
add all other greenhouse gases, we
JW: In your mind, to reach a JW: So stabilizing emissions will are already above 450 ppm CO2
stabilizing number like 450 ppm* mean… equivalent as many studies including
(parts per million) of carbon dioxide the latest MIT studies show. Thus,
or CO2 in the atmosphere, where RG: Stabilizing emissions is not at all
reducing emissions of all greenhouse
do we need to be in terms of energy enough in the long run. Stabilizing
gases to zero over the next 30 years
mix? concentrations near 550 ppm would
will still mean that nature will have to
require that we limit emissions to
respond to the equivalent of 550 ppm
RG: If you want to stabilize at a about 33 gigatons of carbon dioxide
by 2040. This is the baseline scenario
given concentration of CO2 per year in the near future and a
we talked about before.
step is to cut the amount of future steady decrease thereafter, whereas
emissions. Stabilizing at today’s level the historic trend is
of emissions, about 33 gigatons per growth by one to two
year, would still add about 2 to 2.5 percent each year, or
ppm of carbon dioxide per year. CO2 doubling in about 50
concentrations would reach between years. One could ask
500 to 550 ppm by 2060. If you where this growth is
wanted to stabilize the concentration coming from. The
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere populations of most
and not emissions, then you have of the industrialized
to cut emissions drastically starting countries are not
today. We are already at 395 ppm. To growing and their
stabilize at 450, you basically have economies are less
focused on heavy
economy over the next 30 years, industries. There is
not a huge growth in
emissions from them.
thing to note is that if one examines
the effect of all greenhouse gases in industrialized
such as methane and nitrous oxide, countries have stabilized relatively
then we are effectively already
above 450 ppm today. That means developed countries are adding solar Natural Gas
implementing zero emissions starting and wind energy systems and are
today. transitioning from coal to natural gas. JW: What is your view about natural
gas?
Given that we cannot transform developed world have stabilized at
the global economy overnight, the RG: I think of natural gas as more
about 20 gigatons of carbon dioxide
than a bridge fuel for two reasons.
per year, but the developing world,
realistically imagine under the most First, it could facilitate a transition
from coal to natural gas for power
onboard.
is concentrations peaking at about
550 ppm of CO2 alone by around Developing world carbon emissions countries are already switching.
2060. The tragedy is that scientists do are growing. If you wanted a target Psychologically this helps people
not exactly know the full impacts of of 450 ppm of CO2 alone, you think about transitions and cleaner
even 395ppm due to the roughly 30 would have to shut down all the
year time lag in the response of the development in the industrializing hydroelectric generation systems,
earth system to the radiative forcing world and start cutting down

3. 3
and solar. They facilitate development of Russia. In the last 50 years, a shale gas. Now the pressure is off, as
and growth because they provide large part of Russia’s revenues shale gas will last us another 30 years
the necessary backup for the have come from oil exports. Their or so. Our main import is oil, which
intermittency inherent in wind and current policies show that gas will we can decrease to zero by doubling
solar resources. be their next big source of revenues. the average miles per gallon of our
cars and light trucks, something for
It is very important to note that, as China on the other side, both of which demonstrated technology
much as gas is cleaner, one must not which are hungry for oil and gas. exists.
forget that transition to gas does not Putin is very aggressively pushing
solve the climate change problem. new gas pipelines like the North We also have overbuilt capacity of
Stream pipeline between Russia and electric power plants. If there are
Germany and the South Stream to wind or solar farms being built, it is
of greenhouse gases may stabilize because of incentives and not because
2
failed negotiations of gas export via of a pressing need for energy. The
concentrations in the atmosphere old pipelines through Ukraine, all resulting complacency, because we
would continue to grow at today’s have fat to trim, can be overcome
rate due to the increasing energy
needs of the developing world.
Transition to gas will be a huge step
forward, but nowhere near enough.
Second, gas is much harder to
transport across oceans than coal
or oil. However, gas is easier to
transport if you can build pipelines.
International pipelines could
become tremendous mechanisms
for cooperation. Like oil pipelines,
all transit countries between the
suppliers and consumers have
to cooperate. Thus the region
becomes more interdependent, and
there tends to be less belligerent
behavior. You tend to compromise
and work out deals. For countries
provide access to the very large
reserves of gas in the Persian Gulf in two ways. We either form a very
and in Russia and can motivate the avoiding that crisis of 2009. Better
guarantees are being negotiated;; strong national consensus that we
integration of their economies. In need an energy policy because there
my opinion, gas is more than just a projects are being managed
jointly;; and regular dialogue is are consequences that we do not want
fuel. It can facilitate international to face due to climate change, or the
cooperation. creating opportunities for trade and
cooperation. economics of renewables become so
Geopolitics of De-­carbonization compelling that the market forces the
In my opinion, one important reason transition.
JW why the U.S. has not developed a
do the geopolitics change for the India, on the other hand, is an
is our abundance of resources. For interesting case because it has much
and Russia? example, when our conventional gas fewer options. India has small oil
reserves started to deplete around reserves, importing over 75% of its
RG: It is an opportunity for improving 2003, we were concerned for about oil, and a supply of coal that will
relations. Let us take the example last for about 30 to 40 years with

4. 4
“The environmental impact of 1.2 billion people [in India] consuming fossil fuels
These reserves are small compared at even one-­seventh of the U.S. level will be like adding another China of energy
to its needs;; so India will have demand.”
to import most of its fossil fuels.
Therefore, one would imagine that
RG: In some ways, water is more
a transition to solar, wind, and other The countries there are switching to critical than energy because food
renewables. But India does not have natural gas for power generation and supplies are predicated on water. In
enough onshore wind resources and are conserving oil for exports. Their a country like India, water supply is
has yet to start offshore development. dominated by the monsoons. Timely
The best solar installation is in the the largest in the world, but they can predictable monsoons are necessary
desert areas of Rajasthan where land for food security. The monsoon is
is cheap. Transmitting this power world keeps buying oil and gas from vulnerable to climate change. If the
throughout the country using an aged, them. monsoon becomes unpredictable
obsolete grid is not going to be easy. and the frequency of severe storms
JW: This is a different future than increases, then India could face issues
Installation of distributed generation many have been predicting for India.
has been slow due to cost. India will with food supply, especially since its
Optimism and hype has existed population is still growing at about
continue to rely on fossil fuels. The for a while. These are more of the
environmental impact of 1.2 billion 1.6 percent per year.
constraints and challenges considered
people consuming fossil fuels at even Since its independence in 1947,
like adding another China of energy RG in rainfall through irrigation.
demand. India’s infrastructure constraints. However, irrigation depends on
Optimism stems from India’s either groundwater or snowcaps in
To import fossil fuels, India has abundance of people with great ideas
to rely on maritime trade since its the Himalayas. The groundwater
and vast numbers of unbelievable situation is already alarming in India.
land routes are blocked due to poor entrepreneurs. But the political and
relations with its neighbors. To the The water table is declining at a fast
bureaucratic system is broken. It is rate. There are already large areas
west, there is Pakistan and to the east, very corrupt. In a highly competitive where the water table is 300 to 400
market, this adds costs, and in many
for trade in manufactured goods are cases these costs have become
blocked by Bangladesh and Burma. table declines, more electric energy
In the north, there are the Himalayas
followed by Tibet/China. So, India is software and pharmaceuticals, which
pretty much geographically isolated. point, accessible ones will run dry.
Meeting its energy needs is going to Furthermore, if there is too much
China wants to dominate. India has reliance on irrigation, then one faces
be extremely challenging. Imports few areas of relative advantage and
will be constrained by balance of soil salinity. In the most productive
trade issues while poor infrastructure areas of India – Punjab and Haryana
its politics, build the infrastructure
is limiting growth in the utilization of and create other areas of competitive
indigenous resources. For example, techniques such as drip irrigation and
edge. water on demand are not catching on
the delivery of coal from indigenous
mines is falling short because there fast enough due to a lack of capital
is not enough railway capacity to and slow diffusion of knowledge.
move it. India’s ability to import gas Water Security
The vast storehouse of water
is constrained by both its ability to eventually used in India is in the
JW: Water is increasingly becoming
Himalayan glaciers, which depend
natural gas (LNG) terminals and on the climate. The general pattern
tankers. Development is going to be that we have seen over the last
controlled by India’s ability to create developed like China. Could you see
the case of water resources becoming century is diminishing snow cover
relationships and trade so that it can
afford to import what it needs. a more critical issue than energy?

5. 5
dry seasons decreases and impacts imperceptibly and yet cumulatively, generation and the needs of future
on the food supply and people’s pressures are building up and ones.
welfare increase. Thus India is very depletion of resources is occurring.
What will a person accept as a
vulnerable to climate change.
reasonable level of consumption,
“I give up.” Scientists call this a
Similarly, the northern part of China, and who sets that lifestyle? Is
“runaway solution,” where nature
especially along the Yellow River, it movie stars? Is it a farmer?
does not have the capability to
is facing extreme water shortages. regenerate;; the cost of regeneration
Managing expectations and setting
via human intervention becomes
make it to the sea, and groundwater priorities without feeling that one
less and less effective because of the
withdrawal in that whole area is faster is compromising on having a good
difference between what is needed
than recharge. life is one of the challenges that the
and what can be done grows rapidly.
global society faces. Unfortunately,
We have seen many examples of
Worldwide, there are growing issues today the expectations are high
complete death of ecosystems. The
of overdrawing groundwater and worldwide, and they are driven by
consumption. Is it really so basic that
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) and
produces and uses or dumps on the we are willing to compromise even
ground—be it waste, fertilizers, the future of our children?
completely gone due to overuse and
pesticides, herbicides, chemicals,
diversion of water for irrigation.
garbage, etc. —ends up in our water
The numbers of dead zones in lakes,
Nuclear Energy and Waste
JW
to make nuclear power more safe,
especially with respect to waste?
RG: Like most of the discussion
with energy, the growth of nuclear
power is partly a social and political
problem and partly a technological
one. Certainly economics and issues
of safety are involved. The safety
Generation III and III+ reactors is
outstanding. The problem in the U.S.
The cost has become very high
rivers, and along the coasts in the
because of the wasteful processes
Mediterranean are growing, for
water, it quickly becomes mobile and paper work that has to be done
example.
and ends up in rivers, lakes and in response to changing regulations,
oceans or it contaminates the ground We understand these impacts resulting in a long build time. This
and groundwater. The investment and can predict these changes.
required to clean up rivers and Unfortunately, we cannot stop risk, i.e., will the plant be able to
them. Globally we do not have the
groundwater. We have to make sure courage, foresight and cooperation generation sources when it becomes
that pollution and overdrawing does to take appropriate actions. It means operational seven to ten years later?
changes in lifestyles, many of which Whereas in China, India or even
are healthier and more economical. South Korea, which are hungry for
Nature has ways of regenerating energy, the process is much more
itself, but we have pushed it to streamlined. Today, France, Russia,
between consumption by the current
the extreme. Slowly and steadily,

6. 6
China, India and South Korea are effective, safe and requires little land. add the requirement of safety against
driving the nuclear industry. Thus,
social and political issues and how The decision to reprocess or not building the plant 30 or more meters
depends on the cost, security of above sea level, and one can calculate
cost in the U.S. There is no question uranium supply, safety and security. the extra cost of pumping seawater
in my mind that all countries with to the safer location for cooling.
nuclear power should invest in R&D Next add the requirement of safe
to continuously improve safety and technological answer and the societal against a terrorist attack or a plane
demands and acceptable risk vary.
calculate the extra cost. Now add the
spent fuel. I hope we maintain our fear of accidents make people very requirement of being safe against a
leadership. nervous;; they forget what the tiny risk
The second issue of waste, more
appropriately called “spent fuel,” is
a very interesting question. There
is serious debate going on whether
to reprocess spent fuel or not.
Reprocessing means we separate the
different components. The hottest
to decay before reprocessing. The
and plutonium, are separated and
reassembled as fuel. The rest, mostly
decay products that are waste, needs
to be sequestered safely for thousands
reduces the amount to be sequestered
and its radioactivity, which is under exceptional circumstances is the plant’s lifetime with the epicenter
certainly an advantage. The downside within twenty miles of the plant. This
is that any country able to reprocess restricts the land area of the world
is a de facto nuclear weapons nuclear accident versus likely that constitutes suitable sites, but still
state, with the associated risk of catastrophic climate change. leaves enough land for global needs.
proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
If we do not reprocess, then we are The answer becomes more stark when
throwing away roughly 96% of the we ask a different set of questions.
uranium that remains intact. There Suppose, today, we decided to replace power to mitigate climate change,
are also a lot more hot radioactive then we can design a credible
elements to store, needing much nuclear ones. We were also asked solution. If there is no clear goal
more costly and larger repositories. to create a system that was safe and and the public demands zero risk,
secure to, say, less than one accident then each country will be driven
needs to be mined. Unfortunately, of the Three Mile Island level (no by politics, social perceptions and
the debate continues because there economics, and then mitigating
years or face a temperature rise of climate change will be left on the
has an adequate supply of uranium.
would be that the Generation III+ generation capacity and abundant
reactors meet that criterion. Now we coal. For the time being, gas is
abundant. There is no pressure to
“Nature has ways of regenerating itself, but we have pushed it to the extreme. to nuclear capacity and spent fuel
Slowly and steadily, imperceptibly and yet cumulatively, pressures are building up management.
and depletion of resources is occurring.”

7. 7
“Unfortunately, in spite of the rhetoric, no politician wants to address the climate
challenge by growing nuclear power if they can deliver energy security using
current nuclear capacity by 2060,
fossil fuels. It has been politically prudent to leave climate mitigation to the next
then we can ask what a sustainable
system is. Is it a system with generation with the hope that nature will be benign.”
reprocessing or is it a system without
JW: Nuclear power uses a good bit of materials or materials that are not as
reprocessing? What are the acceptable
risks, and how can we minimize water… dependent on critical resources—
them to acceptable levels? I believe resources that are less abundant, more
RG: Overall, nuclear plants use about
is needed to break the logjam. very toxic.
Unfortunately, in spite of the rhetoric, purposes because they circulate Why does having a single
no politician wants to address the water to remove similar amounts of manufacturing center matter? When
climate challenge by growing nuclear heat. In these thermal power plants, you have monopolies, abuse of power
power if they can deliver energy approximately 60 to 70 percent of leads to undesirable consequences.
security using fossil fuels. It has been the heat produced has to be discarded Issues we need to address are checks
politically prudent to leave climate unless you use it for other industrial and balances, incentives to innovate
mitigation to the next generation with purposes. So, in regards to water and fair practices. Most democracies
the hope that nature will be benign. have a system of checks and balances
Finally, a few words on the risks plants have a similar environmental to deter monopolies that distort
of nuclear proliferation that is footprint. Since the transport of
extremely central to U.S. thinking. nuclear fuel over long distances sponsored manufacturing center in
If you look at the 21 countries that the world dominating, like China, the
nuclear plants can be sited to use entire market can be distorted.
plants (representing over 95 percent China’s dominance is creating trade
plants, the transport of coal adds
imbalances across the globe. To
these countries already have nuclear sustain imports, you must export
power plants and another three are and environmental impacts, so these
facilities are often sited near coal other goods worth the same amount.
negotiating to have them. These
countries have the experience and mines and use freshwater resources.
with respect to China because their
capacity for dealing with the issues imports exceed their exports. Thus,
of spent fuel, safety, and security. If not only can a monopoly distort the
a developed country that already has China and Global Resources
nuclear power cannot double or triple becomes dependent on one country.
JW: How does China as the sole
This creates leverages that can be
manufacturing superpower relate to
used unfairly.
and safeguards, then it is highly global resource challenges?
unlikely that we will have a nuclear Next, for maintaining a healthy trade
RG: The global resource challenge
renaissance and be able to stabilize balance, a country has to ensure that
even emissions of greenhouse gases does not depend on which country
it manufactures what others want and
is the producer, assuming that
also creates enough jobs. One can
market forces drive all producers
on the amount of goods required
globally, irrespective of whether
Increasing populations, industrial whose exports compensated for
they are produced in China, the U.S.,
development and climate change in all the imports, would that system
or Brazil. What matters is which
South Asia, the Middle East and North
alleviate the need to manufacture
effective and innovative. The goals
nails, hand tools, clothes, cars,
regions to deal with water problems. are to improve the technology and
durables and other necessary items?
processes and substitute as many of
the natural resources by synthetic

8. 8
enough people? Is depending on “
manufacturing in other countries the obvious threats such as an overt war and those that have cascading effects lead-­
desired and sustainable progression ing to poverty and denied opportunities.”
Historically, after agriculture, not convinced that we have found
manufacturing provided mass a sustainable replacement – our Or, more worryingly, will a large
employment with a scalable and growing debt is an indicator that number of people stay poor and
simple ladder of upward mobility. we have not. Until we do, we need starve?
You could work with your hands to maintain a strong manufacturing
sector.
socially desired items. On the other where lack of water, dwindling
Water wars? resources and growing populations
The Global Water Security Report warns that are the root causes of the ongoing
JW: You seem to be tragedy and violence.
problems such as population growth, climate concerned by water war
change, and water management that strains water possibilities but some Throughout the world, more people
supplies could destabilize regions around the world water experts say the desire more adequate and higher
in the future. threat is overblown. quality water, energy, and food.
Nature can sustain this up to a
(Source: Diane Rehm Show, April 3, 2012 about RG: Threat certain point, and then the system
“Global Water Security,” Intelligence Community breaks unless new technology comes
Assessment, February 2, 2012.) eye of the beholder. to the rescue. Will it and at what
There are two kinds lifecycle cost? What happens when
of threats: obvious
threats such as an overt and says, “We are going to use our
hand, the threshold of knowledge
war and those that have cascading rightful share of water?” How does
effects leading to poverty and denied
computer codes or develop software
opportunities. One
or design new computers or become
example of a hidden
a doctor is very high. The majority
“water war” is the Nile
of society does not graduate from
river basin. We have
school with those skills. They, and
not had a war between
those that drop out of school, are
because historically
Unless society provides adequate
the water rights, and
compensation for jobs they can do to
take care of their families and avoid
poor. This is not a
poverty, which in time will lead to
sustainable solution
generational poverty, we will face a
as the populations
growing disenfranchised population.
of both countries are
We have to ensure that the majority growing as well as their
of our children get a very good expectations. In the
future, it is improbable
the knowledge society. We must also and Sudan will not
use more of the Nile
for the rest of the population so that
they avoid poverty, can educate their do since it is highly
children, and through hard work dependent on the
move up the ladder. Manufacturing Nile? Will it agree to
is one solution that scales. I am a different distribution

9. 9
or military strength? Or will water
become a commodity like oil and
gas to be owned and traded by those
countries with the best land rainfall?
So, while many may consider the
threat of war overblown, famines,
hunger and malnutrition persist.
Roughly forty percent of the planet
is undernourished, while about forty
percent of children in the U.S. are
obese. Something is not working.
Should inequitable distribution of
Should ensuing forms of human
misery and deprivation count as much
as an overt war and deserve similar
attention and resources? I hope the
readers will provide answers to many
of these questions.
The Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues. The views
expressed and facts presented in DCFR publications are the responsibility of the author or authors. A special
GeoEdge thanks to Danielle Dudding and Maya Lechowick for their assistance in researching water security for this
publication and a related presentation on DCFR’s slideshare page.
BLOG
For additional information about DCFR, please visit our website
Exploring
the
frontlines
of
at www.dallascfr.org.
http://geoedge.org/ of global affairs and a better understanding of the people and events impacting impor
tant policy choices of the future.
For more information contact:
Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations
4925 Greenville Ave, Suite 1025 Dallas, Texas 75206
dcfr@dallascfr.org 214.750.1271