Henry Mason, Trendwatching @ ad:tech - 'Distinguishing Between Hype and need-to-know Consumer Tech Trends'
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Henry Mason, CEO, Trendwatching's presentation at ad:tech London on 13th October 2015
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Henry Mason, Trendwatching @ ad:tech - 'Distinguishing Between Hype and need-to-know Consumer Tech Trends'
- 1. Perform or Perish! Key consumer trends for 2016 & beyond ad:tech, London 13 October 2015 Henry Mason, Managing Director TrendWatching
- 8. A consumer trend is a new manifestation among people – in behavior, attitude, or expectation – of a fundamental human need, want or desire.
- 11. TW:IN - TrendWatching Insight Network
- 12. Trends emerge as innovators address people’s basic human needs and wants in novel ways.
- 13. CHANGE
- 14. BASIC NEEDS
- 15. 100 million hours of ‘how to’ videos…
- 16. How to kiss
- 17. INNOVATIONS
- 19. BASIC NEEDS DRIVERS OF CHANGE INNOVATIONS THE SWEET SPOT NOVELTIESMORE OF THE SAME EXPECTATION GAPS
- 21. Tracking trends helps you meet and surpass consumers’ rapidly changing expectations.
- 22. FUTURE VISION Won’t come from asking your customers what they want!
- 25. POST-DEMOGRAPHIC CONSUMERISM Consumption patterns are no longer defined by ‘traditional’ demographic segments such as age, gender, location, income, family status and more as people construct their lifestyles and identities more freely than ever.
- 26. ACCESS
- 27. PERMISSION
- 28. of British 18-24 year olds chose something other than 100% heterosexual when asked to plot themselves on a ‘sexuality scale’ Y O U G O V, A U G U S T 2 0 1 5
- 29. of the applicants on a waitlist for free coding classes at New York Public Library are women N E W Y O R K P U B L I C L I B R A RY, J U N E 2 0 1 5
- 30. ABILITY Abundant choice & falling costs mean ever more personal lifestyles and experiences
- 31. Overlap in the 1,000 favorite artists for 60-year-olds and for 13-year-olds G E O R G E E R G AT O U D I S ( H E A D O F M U S I C , B B C R A D I O 1 ) , M AY 2 0 1 4
- 32. DESIRE Status is less about what you have, but who you are and what you do.
- 33. of men have changed jobs or said they would be willing to do so to better balance family life, versus E Y & H A R R I S I N T E R A C T I V E , A P R I L 2 0 1 5
- 34. LET’S END THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLICHÉS
- 35. “Real-world situations and authenticity appeal most to consumers between 35-54.” Nielsen, November 2012
- 36. “Millennials put a premium on authenticity….” Nielsen, August 2014
- 37. Adweek, 2014 “...for brands looking to engage Gen Z, authenticity rules.”
- 38. “A modern, streamlined design…[and] will deliver a convenient, transparent, and values-oriented experience geared toward millennial shoppers.” Walter Robb, Co-CEO
- 39. “After all, who wouldn’t love to shop for lower-priced, organic, and natural foods in a store that boasts a clean and modern design?” Robyn Bolton, Partner, Innosight
- 40. Yes, younger people are (usually) still the earliest adopters…
- 41. …But little remains the preserve of a single demographic for long!
- 42. SO WHAT?
- 43. Demographics are dead! Long live demographics!
- 44. & OTHER STORIES Campaign's models and creative team are transgender NEW NORMAL
- 45. SELFRIDGES Department store hosts gender- neutral shopping project NEW NORMAL
- 46. LULULEMON Yoga brand opens dedicated men’s store X-DEMOGRAPHIC FERTILIZATION
- 47. HOVEL STAY Students-only P2P accommodation marketplace opens to boomers X-DEMOGRAPHIC FERTILIZATION
- 48. SACRED?
- 49. VERSACE Fashion brand partners with singer for counterfeit-inspired collection HERITAGE HERESY
- 50. BURBERRY Catwalk shows live-streamed via Line social media app HERITAGE HERESY
- 52. APPLE The iPhone as the first POST- DEMOGRAPHIC smartphone? HERITAGE HERESY
- 53. HARLEY- DAVIDSON Motorcycle brand pledges to plant 50 million trees worldwide HERITAGE HERESY
- 54. PLAYBOY Magazine to stop publishing fully nude photos HERITAGE HERESY
- 55. LULULEMON Partnered with Stanley Park Brewery to create a limited edition beer for yoga enthusiasts HERITAGE HERESY
- 57. UNILEVER All Things Hair YouTube channel powered by Google search data HYPER-DEMOGRAPHIC IRONY
- 58. SPOTIFY Personal playlists delivered each week HYPER-DEMOGRAPHIC IRONYHYPER-DEMOGRAPHIC IRONY
- 59. “Everyone's instinct was, 'Yeah, if you find out their age and gender data, that's fantastic'.” Todd Yellin - VP Product Innovation, March 2015
- 60. “But what we learned is: it's almost useless. It's not who they are in a superficial sense – like gender, age, or geography. It's not even what they tell you. It's what they do.”
- 61. “There are 19-year-old guys who watch 'Dance Moms', and there are 73-year-old women who are watching 'Breaking Bad’.”
- 62. LIGHTBULB MOMENT! How will you thrive in a POST-DEMOGRAPHIC world?
- 63. Just the tip of the iceberg
- 65. The overwhelm is the opportunity!
- 66. CHANGE
- 67. BASIC NEEDS
- 68. INNOVATIONS
- 70. THANK YOU & GOOD LUCK
Notes de l'éditeur
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDb8rduRsvg Asilo Padre Cacique, a retirement home in Porto Alegre, Brazil, hosted an activity day for its elderly residents in September 2014, featuring a skateboard exhibition and graffiti artists.
- There are many different types of trends, our name confuses people…
- We have nothing to do with what’s fashionable! We don’t mind ugly things as long as they are innovative.
- Economic trends
- What’s trending online…
- Tech trends
- We look at consumer trends
- http://trendwatching.com/freepublications
- http://trendwatching.com/premium/
- There’s a lot going on already in all that, so I want us to take a step back for a moment. Super-quickly I’m going to run you through our model for how trends come into being.
- Our Model Says: on the one hand there is CONSTANT CHANGE. Technological change, social change, attitudinal change. The world is changing all the time. We all know that.
- BUT On the other hand there is human nature, whicn fundamentally does not change much over time. Human beings are driven by this set of BASIC NEEDS & WANTS – think safety, fun, value, connection– they don’t change from month to month, or season to season.
- Just a really quick example of that. 100 million hours of ‘how to’ videos have been watched in North America on YouTube duirng the first half of 2015. And the number one question being addressed…? http://www.fastcompany.com/3046271/fast-feed/youtube-viewers-really-want-to-learn-how-to-kiss
- It was how to kiss! So we have this amazing technology, only a decade or so old, and we’re using it to address one of the oldest questions out there… One we all asked ourselves as teenagers, perhaps some of us are still asking it now.
- The third strand of this model is INNOVATIONS. They play a central role in our methodology. Our model states that when external change bumps against age-old human needs and wants it creates tension. We can see trends emerge when innovations address these basic needs in new ways.
- Another way of saying this is that we’re looking for the innovations that resolve new tensions or consumer expectations. They don’t just resolve expectations. Game-changing innovations create new expectations that spread through the consumer arena. The three fundamental elements – basic needs, external change and innovations – will help you understand trends. But sensing where and how these come together to form new levels of customer expectation will help you act on trends. That’s because identifying what the people embracing the brands, products and services that embody the trend now want and even expect is the best way to spot the potential opportunities within a trend. What if you can’t see any innovations that are catering to the new customer expectation you’ve identified? You might just be close to the holy grail of trends: when it is your innovation that starts a trend by setting a new level for customer expectations that other innovators have to work to meet!
- For those of you who like your thinking diagrammatically, after much discussion this is how we thrased it out on paper for the book we wrote earlier this year. You can see the three strands of our methodology. Super-quickly, it should be clear that if you’re just innovating around basic needs without considering how the world is changing, you’re just going to create more of what already is. If all you’re thinking about is how the world is changing, and you forget basic human needs and wants, you’ll get fads and novelties. You’re aiming for the sweet spot, where change meets basic needs and creates new expectations that YOU can serve!
- That’s a scary thought, Or it should be! But that’s why we’re here, that’s why we come to days like this. Because in the end trends are all about identifying and then surpassing consumer expectations. That’s what today is ultimately all about!
- As everyone from Henry Ford to Steve Jobs knew, turning to customers for insights about their future desires is limiting at best, and can be downright misleading. If there’s one secret to trend watching however, it is that you can know what customers will start to want. Not by asking them, but by looking at the businesses and products that people are lavishing love and attention on now. These are the businesses – from well-known leaders such as Apple and Whole Foods, to niche brands such as Zady, a ‘lifestyle destination for conscious consumers’, to new products such as the Pebble smartwatch, which as we saw previously, raised $10.2 million in 30 days on Kickstarter – that drive the Expectation Economy by triggering points of tension and creating new expectations among consumers. Indeed, you should aim to build a culture of customer-centered innovation, not customer-led innovation. Customer-led cultures are reactive and too self-consciously explicit about putting the customer first. Customer-centered cultures on the other hand, are grounded in a deeply empathetic understanding of customer needs and wants, but also grant an organization the freedom to make the unexpected and often unasked-for leaps forward that will lead to long-term success.
- Back to the video. You’re not the only one confused, consumers aren’t acting the way they ‘should’.
- The old models of customer segmentation are increasingly inadequate & not fit for purpose.
- Consumers – of all demographics and in all markets – increasingly buy and use products and services from the same mega-brands: Apple, Facebook, Amazon (the technology sector is especially universal), IKEA, McDonald’s, Uniqlo, Nike and more. The ubiquity and collective familiarity with these global mega-brands, when combined with the global reach of consumer information, has also created if not a shared consciousness then certainly a new level of POST-DEMOGRAPHIC shared experience for consumers, from 16 to 60 and from Boston to Beijing.
- There has been a 400% increase in multi-racial marriages in the US in 30 years (US Census) Perhaps not always politically, and certainly not uniformly, but in the past decades societies around the world have become more socially liberal as many ‘natural’ conventions – from family structures to gender roles – have collapsed. Cities, with their greater social freedoms and exposure to alternative lifestyle choices are a key factor. The choice and freedom found in cities gives the world's now 3.9 billion urbanites ever more opportunities to construct their own identities outside of the traditions of their specific demographic.
- Individuals are able to personalize – and express themselves through – their consumption to a greater degree than ever before. This is being driven at a macro level by the global expansion of the consumer class and the explosion of product choice in mature markets. But it's being driven at the level of the individual, too, with digital experimentation allowing for a greater range of experiences at lower cost, and online social networks (enthusiastically used by all demographics) allowing people to identify with brands, products and services – even those that they don't or can't purchase.
- Consumerism and status have always been inextricably linked. 'Old' status symbols (material goods) need money to obtain, and were therefore often the preserve of old demographics, with higher spending power. 'New' status symbols (experiences, authenticity, connection, health, ethical and sustainable lifestyles etc.) are more ephemeral and democratic, making the POST-DEMOGRAPHIC STATUSPHERE open to all, regardless of age, income and location. Indeed, POST-DEMOGRAPHIC status is often a total reverse of traditional status, with younger generations living higher status but lower-spending lifestyles, while older and wealthier demographics rush to keep up ;)
- http://hbr.org/2015/05/whole-foods-misguided-play-for-millennials
- H&M owned womenswear brand & Other Stories, from Sweden, cast transgender models in a campaign for it’s August 2015 capsule collection. The campaign’s creative team including the stylist, makeup artist and photographer were also transgender. Link: https://www.facebook.com/andotherstories/videos/vb.316228488429887/983992201653509/?type=2&theater
- March 2015 saw Selfridges unveil the Agender project: a gender-neutral shopping experience taking over the department store chain. Spanning three floors of the London store, the spaces featured unisex apparel, accessories and shoes from international brands including Bodymap, Ann Demeulemeester, Comme des Garcons and Gareth Pugh. Selfridges’ window displays were dressed in gender-neutral style, and the initiative also included events around movies, music and photography exploring the idea of gender. Link: http://www.selfridges.com/content/article/coming-soon-agender
- In September 2014, Canada-based yogawear brand Lululemon announced plans to open the brand’s first men’s-only store in New York. The move followed a successful ‘Man Camp’ pop-up store in North Carolina and the launch of a popular Lululemon Men Twitter account. Link: https://twitter.com/lululemonmen
- In October 2014, US-based Hovel Stay became accessible to people of any age. The P2P students-only vacation rental site bowed to pressure from would-be customers, with reservations in locations across the world available to all ages. Hovel Stay bills itself as ‘the anti-luxury marketplace’ offering short-term stays in basic accommodation. Link: http://hovelstay.com/
- October 2013 saw Italian fashion brand Versace launch a collection designed by British-Sri Lankan recording artist M.I.A. and inspired by fake Versace products. The M.I.A. x Versace Versus collection is part of the brand’s Versus diffusion line and each item is based on Versace knock-offs found in London’s street markets. The 19-piece apparel collection includes t-shirts, dresses, printed jeans and outerwear. Link: http://www.versusversace.com/collections/mia
- In February 2015, Burberry partnered with Line to live-stream its runway shows via the Japanese social app. The Burberry Prorsum show was the first to stream direct from London. Line users could also download a series of free digital stickers to share with friends, featuring cartoon characters dressed in Burberry trench coats and checked cashmere scarves. Link: http://burberry.com/
- In February 2015, Burberry partnered with Line to live-stream its runway shows via the Japanese social app. The Burberry Prorsum show was the first to stream direct from London. Line users could also download a series of free digital stickers to share with friends, featuring cartoon characters dressed in Burberry trench coats and checked cashmere scarves. Link: http://burberry.com/
- Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bvfs4ai5XU
- October 2014 saw Harley-Davidson USA pledge to plant 50 million trees worldwide by 2025 in partnership with The Nature Conservancy. The motorcycle manufacturer committed USD 550,000 in annual grants to the nonprofit and also pledged to tap into its biking community to offer time and practical support. To launch the collaboration, riders and dealers planted 1,000 trees in Virginia. The partnership is part of Harley-Davidson’s Renew the Ride sustainability initiative; launched in 2013 it aims to preserve the natural world for future generations of riders. Link: http://www.harley-davidson.com/content/h-d/en_US/company/renew-the-ride.html
- Link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34511999
- In July 2015, Lululemon partnered with Vancouver's Stanley Park Brewing and produced 80,000 cans of Curiosity Lager, hitting the sweetspot for beer-loving yogis. The beers were available at the SeaWheeze Half Marathon, which has the motto: "Yoga. Run. Party. Repeat.” LINK: http://www.stanleyparkbrewery.ca/our-beer/curiosity-lager/
- We’re not saying that customer segmentation is dead – indeed far from it. Big data allows ever greater customer segmentation – right down to a segment of one.
- December 2013 saw Unilever partner with Google to launch its All Things Hair YouTube channel, in partnership with a number of popular British YouTube vloggers. The brand commissions the vloggers to create short shows based on real-time search data, ensuring that the content is relevant. The channel was viewed over 13 million times in its first year, and Unilever expanded the initiative to Canada too. Link: https://www.youtube.com/user/AllThingsHairUK
- In August 2015, Spotify introduced Discover Weekly: a custom-made mixtape that is unique to each user and delivered weekly. The online playlists take Spotify users’ previous song selections and uses them to find tracks that have been played by others with overlapping taste. Link: https://press.spotify.com/it/2015/07/20/introducing-discover-weekly-your-ultimate-personalised-playlist/
- The trends I’ve shown you are just the tip of the iceberg. But I hope you’ve drawn out some actionable opportunities for your business.
- But beyond these trends I hope I’ve given you a framework for harnessing the innovation onslaught you see around you. Think change, human nature and the way innovations set new customer expectations.
- Our Model Says: on the one hand there is CONSTANT CHANGE. Technological change, social change, attitudinal change. The world is changing all the time. We all know that.
- BUT On the other hand there is human nature, whicn fundamentally does not change much over time. Human beings are driven by this set of BASIC NEEDS & WANTS – think safety, fun, value, connection– they don’t change from month to month, or season to season.
- The third strand of this model is INNOVATIONS. They play a central role in our methodology. Our model states that when external change bumps against age-old human needs and wants it creates tension. We can see trends emerge when innovations address these basic needs in new ways.
- Another way of saying this is that we’re looking for the innovations that resolve new tensions or consumer expectations. They don’t just resolve expectations. Game-changing innovations create new expectations that spread through the consumer arena. The three fundamental elements – basic needs, external change and innovations – will help you understand trends. But sensing where and how these come together to form new levels of customer expectation will help you act on trends. That’s because identifying what the people embracing the brands, products and services that embody the trend now want and even expect is the best way to spot the potential opportunities within a trend. What if you can’t see any innovations that are catering to the new customer expectation you’ve identified? You might just be close to the holy grail of trends: when it is your innovation that starts a trend by setting a new level for customer expectations that other innovators have to work to meet!
- http://trendwatching.com/premium/