2. Daniel L. Sandars
Natural Resources Management Centre,
School of Applied Science, Cranfield University
Contribution to:
ESI2009 "OR in Agriculture and Forest Management “
25th July- 8th
August 2009, Lleida, Spain.
rational provision
of over-winter
stubbles on UK
arable farms to
promote farmland
birds
4. Soils and Weather
Workable
hours
Profitability
(or loss)
Crop and livestock
outputs
Environmental
Impacts
Possible crops,
yields, maturity
dates, sowing
dates
Silsoe Whole Farm
Model
Linear programme, important
features timeliness penalties,
rotational penalties,
workability per task,
uncertainty
Machines
and
people
Constraints
and
penalties
5. Heavy clay, 800 mm annual rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
7
Jan
7
Feb
7
M
ar
7
Apr
7
M
ay
7
Jun
7
Jul
7
Aug
7
Sep
7
O
ct
7
Nov
7
Dec
Hours
Sandy loam, 500 mm annual rainfall
-
50
100
150
200
250
7
Jan
7
Feb
7
M
ar
7
Apr
7
M
ay
7
Jun
7
Jul
7
Aug
7
Sep
7
O
ct
7
N
ov
7
Dec
Hours
Workable
hours v.
tractor
hours
Period, fortnights Period, fortnights
6.
7.
8. Voluntary
conservatio
n behaviour
• How would free conservation education influence farmer
behaviour?
• What types of policy intervention do farmers find unacceptable?
9. Multi-
criteria
methods
Discrete choice problems Continuous choice
problems
Methods Multi-criteria Decision
Making, Analytic Hierarchy
Process, Outranking
methods, etc
Goal programming,
Compromise programming,
Multiple Objective
programming
Features Elicits a rich picture of
attributes. Formal problem
structuring methods.
Interactive with a few
motivated decision makers
Simple view of attributes.
Few examples of formal
problem structuring
methods. Examples of non-
interactive uses
Role Mostly prescriptive solutions,
but have seen AHP claim to
predict the outcome of the US
presidential election
Most examples prescriptive
11. Overwintered crop residue area, ha/ 250 ha
of land in arable farming systems
Arable NUTS4
STUBBLE_AR / none
Not Modelled
0 - 4
4 - 8
8 - 12
12 - 16
16 - 20
20 - 24
24 - 28
28 - 32
32 - 36
12. Pareto optimal trade-offs between profit and overwintered stubble area
showing the effect of location
0
50
100
150
200
250
£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000 £70,000 £80,000 £90,000
Net farm profit, £/ 250 ha
Areaofcropresiduessurviving
beyongmidFeb.,ha/250ha
Heavy clay, 670 mm annual rainfall Sand, 540 mm annual rainfall
13. Extra cost, £/ 250 ha to ensure
at least 25 ha of overwintered crop residues
Arable NUTS4
EXTRA_COST
-1
0 - 5
6 - 15
16 - 30
31 - 90
14. Promoting
spring crops
v. stubbles
via selective
subsidy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 50 100 150 200 250
Spring crops, ha/ 250 ha farm
StubblesoverwinteringtomidFeb.,
ha/250ha
16. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 50 100 150 200 250
Spring crop area ha/250 ha
Stubbleareaha/250ha
Heavy clay, 670 mm annual rainfall Sandy clay loam, 595 mm annual rainfall
Sand, 540 mm annual rainfall
spring crops,
showing that
given enough
flexibility
overwintered
stubbles
will be
avoided
17. Acknowledg
ements
The research was funded as part of the UK Research Councils'
Rural Economy and Land Use Programme (RELU) (Project: RES-
227-25-0025-A). RELU is collaboration between the Economic
and Social Research Council, the Natural Environment Research
Council and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research
Council, with additional funding from Defra and the Scottish
Government.
Notes de l'éditeur
Stubbles surviving beyond mid Feb Profit maximisation 2004 (pre Single Farm Payment). Setaside doesn’t count. No stewardship, assumed. All arable farming systems so no allowance for stubble forced in by ley-arable of veg-arable. Considerable heterogeneity in the rational need for overwintered stubbles due to soil and rainfall & Sugar beet is the key crop that determines it. Some areas have since lost sugar beet growing opportunities! This the most likely picture 7 years in 10 but does not include land that cannot be cultivated in the autumn in the worst years.
