1. What Can We Learn About
Workforce Planning From Napoleon?
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2. Napoleon’s March on Moscow in 1812
In
September,
troops
enter
Moscow
On
June
1812,
400,000
troops
advance
Direc=on
the
army
was
on
Russia
traveling,
showing
where
100,000
troops
begin
Weather
temperature
at
split
off
and
rejoined
the
return
to
France
units
certain
dates
in
the
campaign
Brutal
cold,
guerilla
10,000
troops
aLacks,
and
lack
of
food
crossed
the
Nemen
troops
cross
the
27,000
and
supplies
deplete
the
Berezina
in
November
French
troops
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3. Scenario Planning Applied to the French Invasion of Russia:
The Turning Point – Battle of Polotsk
What
are
the
range
of
What
leading
utcomes
as
what
f
hese
What
aire
ohe
ikelihood
r
e
engage
possible
t indicators
o t condi=ons
What
s
the
l implica=ons
o t these
increase
tussian
nd
come
oo
each
oato
St.
the
R he
probability
mf
frui=on?
outcomes
a Army
in
oust
we
utcome?
outcomes
how
t ur
push
dapt?
Petersburg?
Scenario
1
(Best
Case):
French
troops
push
Scenario
2
(Most
LRussian
troops.
roops
slow
East
unimpded
by
ikely):
Russian
t
down
the
French
troops
aRussian
troops
stop
Scenario
3
(Worst
Case):
t
Polotsk,
delaying
a
march
on
Saint
Pto
Saint
Petersburg
at
Polotsk;
the
French
push
etersburg.
the
baKle
must
be
decided
at
Moscow.
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4. This Webcast Will Discuss…
The
business
case
for
aligning
talent
1 supply
and
business
demand
What
is
scenario
planning
and
how
it
can
2 improve
strategic
workforce
planning
Three
leading
prac)ces
to
maximize
workforce
3 planning
efforts
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5. Workforce Strategy Archetypes Over the Last Decade
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6. …So Why Do We Continue to See Disconnects Between
Strategy and How a Company Manages Talent?
1. Paralysis
due
to
the
lack
of
clarity
about
the
future
business
environment
2. Lack
of
understanding
of
(and
focus
on)
the
rela)onship
between
strategy
and
talent
3. Lack
of
understanding
of
the
true
“cost”
of
talent
4. Lack
of
insight
into
future
talent
requirements
5. Disparate,
disconnected,
and
overly-‐engineered
HR
management
processes
developed
for
technocrats,
not
business
people
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7. Three Leading Practices to Achieve Optimal Talent
Alignment With Strategic Workforce Planning
Keep
a
close
pulse
on
business
drivers
to
understand
how
value
Keep
a
close
pulse
1 on
business
drivers
is
created
and
monitor
leading
indicators
to
gain
an
early
read
on
how
condi)ons
in
the
market
and
economy
impact
these
drivers.
U=lize
Scenario
U)lize
scenario
planning
techniques
to
map
out
the
range
of
2 Planning
Techniques
likely
futures
and
link
the
SWP
process
and
discussions
about
talent
to
these
scenarios.
Segment
and
Differen)ate
the
workforce
by
segmen)ng
talent
along
the
3 Differen=ate
Talent
dis)nct
ac)vi)es
that
correspond
to
each
business
driver.
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8. Let’s First Get Grounded on a
Definition for Strategic Workforce Planning
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9. Scenario Planning Provides a Methodology for
Identifying Alternative Strategic Options
Tradi=onal
Planning
Scenario
Planning
“Best”
case
(+15%)
Strategic
Op=on
A
“Base”
case
Strategic
Op=on
B
R E
FUTU
“Worst”
case
(-‐15%)
TODAY
TODAY
Strategic
Op=on
C
Appropriate
in
rela=vely
stable
environment
Appropriate
for
long-‐term
planning
and
to
and/or
very
short-‐term
talent
planning.
force
“out-‐of-‐the-‐box”
thinking.
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10. The Strategic Workforce Planning Process…
1
Iden)fy
the
value
drivers
(e.g.,
Translate
business cri)cal
ac)vi)es
and
processes)
strategy into to
achieve
the
business
strategy
value drivers
Determine
ac)ons
and
6 2
Iden)fy
the
current
and
investments
to
close
the
Determine Determine future
organiza)onal
gaps,
including
)me
and
talent strategy capabilities capabili)es
associated
money
associated
with
to close gaps needed to win
with
the
value
drivers
build,
buy,
rent
decisions
Strategic
Workforce
Planning
5 3
Iden)fy
apparent
and
Iden)fy
and
segment
hidden
gaps
and
run
Identify and talent
(by
role)
based
on
Identify gaps segment talent
mul)ple
scenarios,
if
rela)onship
to
organiza)ona
needed,
to
understand
capabili)es
poten)al
gaps
4
Determine future
headcount
Potential demand vs. Determine
headcount
demand
vs.
application of supply supply
in
each
role,
while
factoring
scenario planning both
internal
and
external
labor
market
dynamics
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11. Leading Practice 1:
Keep A Close Pulse On Business Drivers
Case:
Wireless
Telecommunica=ons
Co.
§ Iden)fying
the
highest
priority
business
drivers
§ Determining
the
capabili)es
that
have
the
greatest
influence
on
strategy
execu)on
§ Establishing
clear
lines
of
accountability
for
key
results
§ Ensuring
the
key
performance
measures
are
known
to
all
§ Communica)ng
to
employees
how
performance
in
their
func)onal
area
influences
company
performance
§ Determining
cri)cal
competencies
required
to
deliver
against
these
drivers
§ Deploying
the
right
talent
into
the
right
roles
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12. Value Tree Mapping™
Case Example: What are the Key Drivers of Revenue?
Price
/
Value
Adver)sing
Effec)veness
Ability
to
Acquire
Customers
Marke)ng
Effec)veness
Number
of
Ability
to
Retain
Customer
Revenue
Customers
Customers
Sa)sfac)on
Ability
to
Understand
Customer
Loss
Customer
Needs
Rate
Prepaid
Base
Level
of
Plan
Plan
Sold
Compe))veness
ARPU
Plan
Type
Postpaid
Ability
to
Sell
Data/ Selling
=
High
Priority
Value
Drivers
Addi)onal
Services
Effec)veness
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13. Value Tree Mapping™
Case Example: What are the Drivers of Customer Satisfaction and Retention?
Availability
of
New
Products
Web
Role
Defini)on
&Technologies
Ease
of
Access
to
Training
Price
/
Value
Support
Call
Center
Effec)veness
Customer
Sa=sfac=on
&
Customer
Support
Ability
to
Diagnose
Effec)veness
of
Effec)veness
&
Resolve
Issues
Service
Reps
Hiring
Effec)veness
Reten=on
Clarity
of
Service
Reliability
Network
Coverage
Systems
Quality
Performance
Metrics
Alignment
+
Billing
Clarity
Network
Reliability
Capital
Expenditure
Compensa)on
&
Mo)va)on
Flexibility
of
Payment
Op)ons
Equipment
Quality
13
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14. Lens to Examine Talent Implications
of Critical Business Drivers
§ Demand
and
growth
forecasts
§ Poli)cal
and
regulatory
change
Industry
Economics
§ Labor
and
material
costs
§ Global
markets
§ Disrup)ve
§ Emerging
compe))on
technologies
Emerging
Compe==ve
§ Pricing
§ Technology
Technologies
Landscape
trends
§ Brand
posi)on
Key
§ Product
life-‐ Business
cycles
Drivers
§ Changing
buying
paKerns
§ Cash
flow
Financial
Customer
§ Customer
demographics
§ Access
to
capital
Constraints
Dynamics
§ Brand
loyalty
§ Debt
to
capital
ra)o
§ Customer/market
access
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15. Leading Practice 2:
Utilize Scenario Planning Techniques
Case:
An
Electronic
Systems
and
Controls
Business
Expands
Into
China
§ The
business
develops
and
applies
advanced
technologies
that
enable
energy-‐genera)ng
facili)es
to
operate
safely
and
in
an
energy-‐efficient
manner
across
the
globe
§ To
meet
a
projected
8
percent
increase
in
electricity
consump)on,
China
says
it
will
add
about
235
gigawaKs
of
hydroelectric,
nuclear,
wind
and
solar
power
capacity
by
2015
§ China
wants
11.4
percent
of
its
energy
to
come
from
non-‐fossil-‐
fuel
energy
sources
by
2015
and
has
a
goal
of
15
percent
by
decade's
end
§ One
strategic
op)on
calls
for
significant
growth
in
the
nuclear
controls
and
opera)on
management
businesses,
but
leaders
are
concerned
that
expansion
in
China
will
be
difficult
to
execute
§ Difficultly
acquiring,
developing,
and
deploying
the
necessary
systems
engineering
talent
to
support
the
business
has
been
iden)fied
as
a
key
constraint
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16. Scenario-based Workforce
Planning Enables Organizations to…
§ Focus
on
those
strategic
decisions
that
will
drive
performance
§ Model
and
plan
for
changing
workforce
assump)ons
§ Build
consensus
among
the
senior
management
team
around
the
most
“robust”
strategic
op)ons
§ Iden)fy
“leading
indicators”
with
which
to
monitor
ongoing
change
of
cri)cal
business
drivers
§ Quickly
adapt
short-‐term
ac)ons
and
long-‐term
strategy
as
business
condi)ons
change
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17. Four Basic Steps to Scenario-based Workforce Planning
1.
Iden=fy
the
“most
likely”
business
scenario
2.
Determine
baseline
business
scenario
3.
Iden=fy
alterna=ve
business
scenarios
4.
Validate
with
key
stakeholders
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18. Case Example: Scenario Planning for China Expansion
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19. Leading Practice 3:
Segment and Differentiate Talent
Case:
Defense
and
Civil
Contractor
to
the
US
Government
§ The
business
provides
professional
services
to
various
government
agencies
with
a
broad
range
of
capabili)es
and
areas
of
exper)se
including
cyberwarfare
and
security
§ Defense
Department
has
been
called
on
to
find
$259
billion
in
cuts
in
the
next
five
years
—
and
$487
billion
over
the
decade
§ PaneKa
has
repeatedly
said
that
he
would
preserve
financing
for
Special
Opera)ons
forces,
cyberwarfare
and
intelligence,
surveillance
and
reconnaissance
systems
§ An
up)ck
in
government
contracts
and
task
orders
related
to
cyber
security
projects
suggest
a
significant
change
in
the
type
of
work
the
firm
will
be
doing
over
the
next
five
year
and
the
type
of
talent
it
needs
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20. Segmentation Enables Workforce Differentiation and Focuses
the Talent Strategy and HR Service Delivery Priorities
Talent
Management
and
Role/Segment
Typical
Porlolio
Gap
Required
HR
Alignment
Efforts
HR
Service
Priori=es
§ Build
capacity
through
rapid
Strategic
Talent
infusion
of
external
talent
and
§ Talent
pipelining
§ Talent
shortage
§ Key
to
compe))ve
accelerated
development
of
select
§ Atrophy
in
strategic
§ EVP/Branding
advantage
internal
talent
organiza)onal
§ Reten)on
§ Normally
a
“hot
skill”
in
§ Tailor
the
employee
value
capability
§ Accelerated
development
high
demand
proposi)on
(EVP)
to
aKract
top
talent
Core
Talent
§ Talent
shortage
§ Protect
and
strengthen
capabili)es
§ Selec)on
(current
or
an)cipated
§ Possesses
proprietary
through
ongoing
development
of
due
to
aKri)on)
§ AKrac)on
and
reten)on
knowledge
and
skills
current
bench
and
talent
pipeline
§ Atrophy
in
and
strong
EVP
§ Development
§ Hard
to
replace
–
“tribal
organiza)onal
knowledge”
§ Strengthen
the
EVP
§ Performance
management
capability
Requisite
Talent
§ Development/rota)on
§ Performs
work
that
is
§ Talent
overage
§ Streamline
and/or
outsource
§ Performance
management
necessary
but
could
be
§ Low
ROI
on
talent
segment
or
consider
re-‐tooling
handled
through
alterna)ve
investment
around
core
capabili)es
§ Exi)ng
(aKri)on,
outsourcing,
staffing/
delivery
strategies
downsizing)
Non-‐Core
(Misfit)
Talent
§ Divest
en)re
talent
§ Exi)ng
(aKri)on,
outsourcing,
§ Possesses
skill
sets
no
§ Talent
overage
§ Iden)fy
opportuni)es
to
move
“A”
downsizing)
longer
needed
players
into
other
roles
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21. Case Example:
Differentiating Talent to Penetrate Cyber Security Market
Role/Segment
Example
Roles
§ Malware
Analyst
Strategic
Talent
§ Digital
Forensics
Analyst
§ Key
to
compe))ve
advantage
§ Cloud
Compu)ng
Engineer
§ Normally
a
“hot
skill”
in
high
demand
§ Cyber
Intelligence
Analyst
Core
Talent
§ Penetra)on
Tester
§ Possesses
proprietary
knowledge
and
skills
§ Network
Security
Analyst
§ Hard
to
replace
–
“tribal
knowledge”
§ Network
Intelligence
Analyst
Requisite
Talent
§ Systems
Administrator
Performs
work
that
is
necessary
but
could
be
handled
§ Systems
Integrator
through
alterna)ve
staffing/
delivery
strategies
§ Help
Desk
Professional
Non-‐Core
(Misfit)
Talent
§ Not
Applicable
Possesses
skill
sets
no
longer
needed
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22. A Segmented Workforce Strategy Enables Optimal Alignment
Shed Support roles whose
work can be delivered at a
lower cost with the same quality
Demand for Goods/Services
Shed Surplus roles that are
no longer relevant to the
business
If current or future ROI can be
measured, add Strategic and
Core roles that are directly
related to the critical business
drivers
Time
Demand Talent Portfolio
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23. How to Get Started…
1. Look
for
opportuni)es
to
surface
fact-‐based
insights
about
the
workforce
capabili)es
and
capacity
that
may
impact
the
ability
to
achieve
the
business
strategy
2. Know
the
business
inside
and
out
and
be
able
ar)culate
the
talent
implica)ons
of
changes
in
the
business
environment
3. Apply
the
leading
prac)ces
to
a
hot-‐buKon
issue
of
your
leadership
team
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25. Aaron Sorensen, Ph.D.
Dr.
Aaron
Sorensen
is
a
Principal
with
Axiom
Consul)ng
Partners,
a
management
consul)ng
firm
that
helps
businesses
align
strategy,
organiza)on,
and
talent
to
achieve
superior
results.
A
psychologist
with
a
background
in
advanced
analy)cs,
Aaron
brings
unique
insight
to
organiza)on,
leadership,
and
workforce
issues
that
impact
profitability
and
constrain
growth.
He
has
worked
with
numerous
organiza)ons
on
their
talent
management
challenges
including
3M,
Corning,
Booz
Allen
Hamilton,
and
Novar)s.
He
frequently
publishes
and
speaks
on
the
topics
of
strategic
workforce
planning,
succession
planning
and
talent
management
and
is
an
author
to
The
Talent
Management
Handbook
chapter
on
strategic
workforce
planning.
Aaron
has
a
Masters
and
PhD
in
Industrial/Organiza)onal
Psychology
with
a
concentra)on
in
Applied
Sta)s)cs
and
Business
from
DePaul
University,
and
a
Bachelors
of
Science
with
honors
in
Psychology
from
the
University
of
Iowa.
Aaron
is
a
member
of
the
Society
of
Industrial
Organiza)onal
Psychologists
(SIOP)
and
the
American
Psychological
Associa)on
(APA).
Aaron
is
based
in
Axiom’s
Chicago
office
and
can
be
reached
at
312.343.4644
or
asorensen@axiomcp.com.
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