Gresham "Group 150" - October 2010

OCTOBER 2010

Group 150

October 2010
Darren Martin
Gresham Advisory Partners
dmartin@gresham.com.au
+61 8 9486 7077
+61 412 144 719

ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the October edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and
gas), by market capitalisation.
The market value of the Group 150 at the end of September was $525 billion, up 8.1% from August. An incredible 141 of the Group 150
companies recorded an increase in market value during the month. The entry point into the Group 150 for September was $95 million
versus $77 million for August. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 5.7% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200
Index increased 4.5% and 4.1% respectively.
The most interesting developments over the past month have been in the currency rather than equities markets. The Australian dollar
continued its steady rise against most currencies in September, increasing 8.8% to a high of 97.3 US cents on the back of a potential
increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank and a widespread expectation that the US Federal Reserve will undertake a second round
of quantitative easing in November.
During September we also witnessed a record surge in precious metals prices in US$ terms. Gold reached US$1315 per ounce and silver
achieved US$22 an ounce—the highest since 1980. Gold and silver prices have increased 19% and 29% respectively since the start of
2010. Platinum increased 9% and Palladium increased 16% in US dollar terms during the month.
Given the strength in the gold price, we thought it timely to complete an assessment of the ASX listed gold landscape in the past 10 years.
The number of Australian listed gold producers has shrunk dramatically over that period, with only 7 out of 25 listed companies surviving
the wave of domestic mergers and foreign acquisitions. The consolidation in the sector has also seen the annual production by Australian
listed gold companies decline from 8.9m oz in 2000 to 5.6m oz in 2010. Currently there are 43 listed gold companies in the Group150.
So, the interesting question remains - who will survive the next 12 months, let alone the next 10 years? Starved for choice at the top end
(+500koz per annum) following Newcrest’s acquisition of Lihir, both local and international investors are now actively seeking exposure
to the Australian mid tier and near term producers, leading to a gradual increase in market ratings. This exposure also provides leverage
to the likely wave of in-market consolidation in the sector, as local producers pursue scale to replace the “Lihir void”. We also expect North
American gold companies to continue to selectively seek to acquire the best assets (like Andean) to exploit ratings arbitrage between the
two markets. Played right, some Australian gold shareholders may enjoy and capture the “double premium”.
In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “MRRT-impact” chart from the September edition, to determine whether the market
capitalisation of the constituents of the Group 150 have recovered following the outcome of the election. As presented in the last edition
the MRRT, as presently conceived has a long path to travel before it becomes legislation. The average market value of domestic focussed
companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 42.3% (vs 20.0% in August and 15.4% July). International focused
companies increased 49.1% (vs 14.1% in August and 7.6% in July).
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited

Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 7 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

1

Group 150
Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - SepTember
By Market Capitalisation
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change

1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $216,565.4 $206,195.2 5.0% 51 53 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $555.5 $492.6 12.8%

2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $150,607.5 $137,500.1 9.5% 52 68 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $550.4 $329.9 66.8%

3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,327.2 $18,010.4 68.4% 53 66 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $548.3 $335.7 63.3%

4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $16,200.5 $14,543.6 11.4% 54 48 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $545.7 $579.5 (5.8%)

5 6 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $9,027.3 $8,468.0 6.6% 55 51 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $538.3 $516.0 4.3%

6 9 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $4,541.1 $3,807.6 19.3% 56 64 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $533.4 $356.9 49.5%

7 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,416.7 $4,184.9 5.5% 57 57 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $526.7 $427.6 23.2%

8 8 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,192.7 $3,844.0 9.1% 58 54 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $526.0 $477.7 10.1%

9 10 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $4,105.3 $3,475.0 18.1% 59 67 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $517.4 $334.3 54.8%

10 14 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $3,444.3 $2,695.0 27.8% 60 59 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $509.6 $395.2 28.9%

11 11 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,430.8 $3,299.2 4.0% 61 58 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $483.7 $419.1 15.4%

12 12 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $3,040.9 $2,952.0 3.0% 62 61 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $472.1 $384.1 22.9%

13 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,647.5 $2,739.3 (3.4%) 63 55 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $460.1 $442.4 4.0%

14 19 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,608.0 $2,181.8 19.5% 64 56 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $440.4 $428.4 2.8%

15 15 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,579.1 $2,663.4 (3.2%) 65 62 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $427.3 $377.3 13.3%

16 16 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,536.8 $2,508.2 1.1% 66 69 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $415.8 $321.3 29.4%

17 18 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,502.9 $2,315.1 8.1% 67 71 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $412.5 $298.2 38.3%

18 20 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,466.2 $2,150.3 14.7% 68 63 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $393.8 $359.9 9.4%

19 17 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,437.9 $2,382.0 2.3% 69 65 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $383.2 $347.1 10.4%

20 23 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $2,261.8 $1,623.1 39.4% 70 75 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $380.5 $262.7 44.8%

21 22 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,920.2 $1,742.9 10.2% 71 91 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $375.6 $204.8 83.4%

22 21 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,889.2 $1,877.8 0.6% 72 74 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $365.1 $275.8 32.4%

23 24 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,620.5 $1,604.0 1.0% 73 83 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $362.1 $226.9 59.6%

24 25 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,486.6 $1,474.4 0.8% 74 77 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $350.7 $260.3 34.7%

25 30 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $1,252.8 $1,128.6 11.0% 75 70 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $345.2 $305.0 13.2%

26 27 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,237.8 $1,173.3 5.5% 76 89 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $328.4 $210.7 55.9%

27 28 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,221.8 $1,158.6 5.5% 77 76 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $327.1 $262.0 24.8%

28 35 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $1,190.9 $1,060.2 12.3% 78 84 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $306.9 $225.9 35.9%

29 29 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,172.6 $1,009.0 16.2% 79 81 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $302.4 $236.0 28.1%

30 26 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,167.4 $1,207.7 (3.3%) 80 73 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $295.8 $284.7 3.9%

31 32 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,117.8 $927.0 20.6% 81 85 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $290.4 $221.3 31.2%

32 31 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $1,108.7 $980.6 13.1% 82 72 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $274.6 $288.7 (4.9%)

33 34 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $946.1 $864.3 9.5% 83 95 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $274.4 $196.3 39.8%

34 36 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $935.1 $804.9 16.2% 84 79 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $271.2 $252.9 7.2%

35 41 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $924.3 $709.0 30.4% 85 80 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $267.0 $240.2 11.2%

36 40 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $917.3 $750.3 22.3% 86 86 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $264.2 $218.6 20.9%

37 42 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $911.3 $672.0 35.6% 87 97 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $248.7 $185.1 34.4%

38 33 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $872.7 $866.9 0.7% 88 82 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $247.0 $228.4 8.1%

39 37 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $857.3 $801.0 7.0% 89 94 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $245.7 $200.2 22.7%

40 38 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $804.3 $757.1 6.2% 90 100 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $236.3 $180.4 31.0%

41 39 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $777.3 $756.1 2.8% 91 87 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $236.3 $217.9 8.4%

42 44 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $761.7 $634.8 20.0% 92 88 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $234.7 $212.8 10.3%

43 47 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $722.7 $605.2 19.4% 93 90 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $233.8 $209.6 11.5%

44 46 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $722.0 $622.3 16.0% 94 99 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $228.8 $180.4 26.8%

45 43 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $708.5 $645.2 9.8% 95 101 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $225.4 $177.6 26.9%

46 60 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $677.5 $392.9 72.4% 96 92 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $213.9 $202.4 5.7%

47 45 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $677.2 $622.6 8.8% 97 93 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $213.6 $202.3 5.6%

48 50 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $633.7 $564.0 12.4% 98 102 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $211.4 $174.8 20.9%

49 52 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $609.7 $518.1 17.7% 99 107 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $204.6 $158.7 28.9%

50 49 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $571.2 $541.1 5.6% 100 103 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $202.9 $175.4 15.7%
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas

2

OCTOBER 2010

Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change Sep Aug Company 30-Sep-10 31-Aug-10 Change

101 98 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $201.8 $184.7 9.3% 126 141 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $125.2 $88.0 42.3%

102 96 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $197.0 $191.4 2.9% 127 119 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $125.2 $123.0 1.8%

103 104 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $186.7 $171.2 9.1% 128 142 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $123.1 $87.6 40.5%

104 115 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $185.9 $128.9 44.2% 129 120 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $122.0 $121.4 0.5%

105 112 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $181.8 $137.2 32.5% 130 153 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $121.7 $73.8 64.9%

106 124 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $173.1 $112.1 54.4% 131 132 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $120.6 $97.5 23.7%

107 106 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $171.5 $161.1 6.5% 132 140 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $116.9 $89.6 30.5%

108 114 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $161.3 $131.9 22.3% 133 125 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $116.3 $111.7 4.1%

109 105 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $161.1 $164.6 (2.1%) 134 144 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $114.4 $82.8 38.2%

110 121 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $160.3 $120.2 33.4% 135 128 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $113.2 $109.3 3.6%

111 108 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $158.2 $144.3 9.6% 136 136 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $111.4 $94.2 18.3%

112 110 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $156.7 $141.9 10.4% 137 133 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $107.0 $96.8 10.5%

113 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $152.5 $134.9 13.0% 138 151 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $106.3 $74.4 42.9%

114 116 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $152.1 $125.5 21.2% 139 134 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $106.1 $95.5 11.1%

115 111 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $150.7 $141.3 6.7% 140 118 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $105.6 $123.7 (14.6%)

116 123 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $146.7 $112.6 30.3% 141 149 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) $105.4 $77.5 36.0%

117 109 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $143.4 $143.4 0.0% 142 148 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $102.5 $79.2 29.4%

118 122 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $140.3 $117.9 19.0% 143 143 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $102.1 $85.7 19.1%

119 128 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $137.7 $106.2 29.6% 144 161 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $100.2 $92.2 8.7%

120 129 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $136.8 $104.4 31.0% 145 139 Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) $99.1 $89.7 10.5%

121 138 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $135.2 $90.5 49.4% 146 131 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $98.4 $97.6 0.8%

122 117 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $134.8 $124.5 8.3% 147 130 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $98.0 $101.6 (3.5%)

123 127 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $134.3 $108.4 23.9% 148 178 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $97.7 $57.3 70.4%

124 166 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $129.3 $65.8 96.5% 149 146 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $96.7 $79.4 21.8%

125 135 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $125.7 $94.4 33.2% 150 126 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $95.0 $110.5 (14.0%)
Source: Capital IQ

new enTrAnTS - SepTember eXiTS - SepTember
124 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL)
130 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) CBH Resources Ltd. (ASX:CBH)
138 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO)
144 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME)
148 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR)

Based on market capitalisation as at 30 September 2010 vs 31 August 2010

Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - SepTember
Leaders Laggers

* Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month

3

Group 150
Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion ASX indeX performAnce - SepTember

Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - SepTember
Market Capitalisation (A$b)

merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in SepTember
Percent Premium - Premium -
Date Value Consideration
Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior
Announced (A$m) Offered
(%) (%) (%)

Common
Anatolia Minerals Development Ltd. Equity; Rights
8-Sep-2010 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) 1,147.2 100 10.7 24.7
(TSX:ANO) / Warrants /
Options
2-Sep-2010 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG) 3,637.8 100 34.2 79.4 Elections

Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m

4

OCTOBER 2010

who wiLL Survive The neXT 10 YeArS? - ASX LiSTed GoLd compAnieS
The Australian listed gold producers have shrunk dramatically since 2000, with only 7 out of 25 surviving the wave of domestic mergers
and foreign acquisitions. The recent acquisition of Lihir by Newcrest, further widens the gap to the up and coming mid tier producers
- NCM’s proforma FY10 production of ~2.8m ozs is ~8x larger than the next biggest producer in Resolute with 352k oz.
The consolidation in the sector has seen the annual Australian listed gold production decline from 8.9moz in 2000 to 5.6moz in 2010.
Starved for choice at the top end (+500koz per annum) following Newcrest’s acquisition of Lihir, both local and international investors
are now actively seeking exposure to the Australian mid tier and near term producers, leading to a gradual increase in market ratings.
This exposure also provides leverage to the likely wave of in-market consolidation in the sector, as local producers pursue scale to
replace the “Lihir void”. We also expect North American gold companies to continue to selectively seek to acquire the best assets (like
Andean) to exploit ratings arbitrage between the two markets. Played right, some Australian gold shareholders may enjoy and capture
the “double premium”.
So the interesting question remains - who will survive the next 12 months let alone the next 10 years?

2000 Annual Production of Gold
2010 - Annual Gold Production (‘000 oz)

8.9 Moz produced by
30 listed gold companies

ASX gold universe in 2000

2010 Annual Production of Gold
2010 - Annual Gold Production (‘000 oz)

5.6 Moz produced by
43* listed gold companies

New gold companies since 2000

Source: Gresham, Company Reports
*
Currently in the Group 150

5

Group 150
Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - bASed on projecT/S LocATion

The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, supports the resurgence of the resources sector in the past month. As discussed in the last edition the
MRRT, as presently conceived has a long path to travel before it becomes legislation.
The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 42.3% (vs 20.0%
and 15.4% at the end of August and July respectively), while international focussed peers increased 49.1% (vs 14.1% and 7.6% at the
end of Auguts and July respectively). Global diversified companies have also recovered 27.3% (vs 13.7% and 14.3%) during the same
period.
Market Capitalisation - Performance Since Proposed MRRT Announced

Overseas/
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Total
Domestic
End of September
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 51 81 16 148
- Simple Average Return 49.1% 42.3% 27.3%

End of August

End of July

Only 148 companies in September and August data set as Astron Resources and Guildford Coal were new IPO’s during the period
Only 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during the period

6

OCTOBER 2010

bASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - September 2010

Copper Nickel Zinc
Share Price Performance

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010

7

Group 150
coAL - SecTor performAnce



8

OCTOBER 2010

diverSified - SecTor performAnce induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce






9

Group 150
GoLd - SecTor performAnce



10

OCTOBER 2010

iron ore - SecTor performAnce



11

Group 150
urAnium - SecTor performAnce



12

OCTOBER 2010

conSenSuS commodiTY price forecASTS - SepTember
Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)
$2,500 $30
$21.87
$2,000 $25 $20.00 $20.00 $19.81 $18.32
$1,310 $1,290 $1,250 $20
$1,500 $1,150 $1,084
$15
$1,000
$10
$500 $5
$0 $0
Spot 2010 2011 2012 2013 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)
$5.00 $3.86 $16.00
$3.64 $3.61 $3.65 $3.80
$10.61 $11.00
$4.00 $12.00 $9.99 $9.60 $9.25
$3.00
$8.00
$2.00
$1.00 $4.00

$0.00 $0.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)
$2.00 $2.00

$1.50 $1.22 $1.50 $1.13
$1.00 $1.04 $1.02 $1.10 $1.03 $1.07 $1.00
$0.98
$1.00 $1.00

$0.50 $0.50

$0.00 $0.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)
$11.00
$12.50 $100
$8.61 $8.70 $8.44 $8.44
$10.00 $62.00 $63.25 $60.00
$75 $53.00
$7.50 $46.50
$50
$5.00
$2.50 $25

$0.00 $0
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)
$1.25 $0.97 $200
$0.91 $0.90
$1.00 $0.81 $0.79
$150 $105.00
$0.75 $85.00 $94.00 $95.00
$80.32
$100
$0.50
$0.25 $50

$0.00 $0
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low

13

recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS

Group 150
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mergers and Acquisitions
2010 2009

GRAM
2009 2009 2008 2008 2006

Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD
Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its
$204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition
United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold.
Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds.
Limited.

TakeoverDefence
Takeover Defence
2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007

Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on
Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m
$178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover
offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and
Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick.
Limited. Resources. Power Group.

Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008

Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka
Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its
US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal
ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to
joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata.
Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue.

Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
A.B.N. 97 003 344 269

Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024

Website: www.gresham.com.au

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Information contained in this publication
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(collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation.
Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision.
To whom this information is provided
This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the
Corporations Act 2001.
Disclaimer and limitation of liability
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which
cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.
No warranties made as to content
Gresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-
ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.
Copyright
Copyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other
person or incorporate the information into any other document.
General matters
These Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.
If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction
is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.
If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.
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