Peter De Keyzer

Change through LeadershipLeadership through Change Antwerp – 4th May 2011 Peter De KeyzerChief Economist

Leadership and Change after the economic crisis ,[object Object]

Eurozone : needing change, lacking leadership

The future debt crisis: change requires leadership,[object Object]

From G20 to G zero G7 /G8 used to be the reference France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, United States, Canada, Russia Crisis saw expansion into G20 Argentina, Brazil, China, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, South-Africa, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Australia “Rise of the rest” Safety in number More diverse group Increased legitimacy, but… Decreased effectiveness Once crisis subsided, need for coordination withered away ,[object Object]

Likely failure of WTO Doha round

Reversion to soft protectionism

The balance of power has shifted Current Account as % of GDP, IMF Figures

Future of the EMU Design error in the Monetary Union « No Bail-out » becomes « No Default » First Political Union, followed by Monetary Union Germany Italy United States Monetary Union without Political Union Scandinavian Union (1873 – 1914) Latin Union (1865 – 1927) Bretton Woods (1944 - 1971)

Eurozone crisis ,[object Object]

…not a European fiscal crisis

…a European governance crisis and a European leadership crisis

Germany is a reluctant leader, if it all…

“Germany has long been one of the most passionate supporters of European integration. Some German analysts fear that if the country finds itself both dominant and disliked, it could abandon that commitment”“Germany: a test of strength”, Financial Times, 12th April 2011 ,[object Object],Joschka Fischer, Financial Times, 12th April 2011

Belgium: Fiscal efforts needed

Checklist for a succesful fiscal consolidation Easy does it Lower spending, not higher taxes A man with a plan A hopeless situation helps

Peter De Keyzer

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