Theory in disaster risk reduction for the management of future enhanced natural hazard impacts connected with climate change.

1. Prof. David Alexander
Prevention and Preparedness
for Extreme Weather Events

2. Radio-
active
emissions
CBRN
terrorism
Pandemics,
epizootics,
epiphytotics
Climate
change
Emerging risks...
Great
geophysical
events:
volcanic
eruptions,
earthquakes,
extra-
terrestrial
impacts,
etc.
Space
weather
Cyber
influencing
and warfare

3. RISK
Cascading risk
tightly-coupled systems
and critical infrastructure
Compound risk
multiple
extreme events
Interacting risk
environmental
drivers
Interconnected risk
interdependent
natural, human and
technological
systems
Composite risk
any and all?
COMPLEXITY

4. CASCADING
DISASTERS

5. C
E
E
E
E
C
E/C
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/C
(a)
(b) C – cause
E – effect
Escalation
points
(a) (b)

6. Escalation
Vulnerability
scenarios
Risk
scenario
Primary
impact
Secondary
impacts
Cascade
path
Cascade
path
Hazard
event(s)
After Nones & Pescaroli 2016, Pescaroli & Nones 2016
Interaction
between
vulnerabilities
Legislation
Management
Time-space
transitions

7. CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Technological
component
Social
component
Cyber
space
Physical
space

8. Primary
cause of
disaster
Impact on
critical
infrastructure
Impact on
housing
Impact on
productive
capacity
Direct
impacts
Indirect
impacts
Impact on
activities
Secondary
impacts
Impact on
activities
Impact on
revenue
Secondary
cause of
disaster
Impact on
well-being
Impact on
safety
Impact on
recovery

9. SPECIFIC VULNERABILITY
GENERAL (CONTEXTUAL) VULNERABILITY
Long-term causes
(dynamic pressures):
predisposition to disaster
CAUSES EFFECTS
National
cascading
effects
International
cascading
effects
Local
cascading
effects
Direct causes
Practical problems that
contribute to disaster
Root causes:
motivating and
underlying factors
Escalation
factors
P
A
N
A
R
C
H
Y

10. EMERGENCY PLANNING
AND MANAGEMENT

11. MUTUAL
DEPENDENCIES
CAPACITY AND
CAPABILITIES
THE PUBLIC'S
EXPECTATIONS
OFFICIAL
DECISIONS
EMERGENCY
PROCEDURES
SPONTANEOUS
IMPROVISATION
EMERGENCY COOR-
DINATION PLANS
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
IN REAL TIME
THE EMERGENCY
ENVIRONMENT

12. SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT
Worst case
Envelope of outcomes
Best case
'upward'
counter-factual
analysis
'downward'
counter-factual
analysis
EMERGENCY
PLAN
incorporation
of scenario
into plan
stress test
of plan
systems
methodology
data and basic
information
emergency
simulation
- desktop
- command post
- field exercise
consider
practicalities

13. Operational
Locally generated needs
International
liaison
Locally generated needs
Global monitoring
and coordination
Local
response
capacity
Local
response
capacity
Local
response
capacity
Regional
harmonisation
Local
response
capacity
Regional
harmonisation
National
coordination
CIVIL PROTECTION SYSTEM

14. Strategic coordination
operations centre
conference room
Tactical coordination
operations centre
operations room
Tactical coordination
operations centre
operations room
Task force
site of incident
Task force
site of incident
Task force
site of incident
Mutual
assistance
agreements
Communications protocols
Communications protocols
Communications protocols
Management
system
Operations direction
coordination post
Operations direction
coordination post
Operations direction
coordination post

15. LIFE SAVING
RESPONSE
• search and rescue
• crisis evacuation
• medical surge capacity
• intensive care capacity
• epidemiology and
disease prevention
DAMAGE
LIMITATION
• infrastructure
protection
• impact reduction
measures
• bracing of damaged
structures
LAUNCHING
RECOVERY
• route clearance
• infrastructure repair
• debris management
EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY

16. CONCLUSIONS

17. Caesar Augustus
(63 BC –AD 14)
"The more complex a
problem, the simpler the
solution should be."

18. H.L. Mencken
(1880-1956)
"For every complex
problem, there is an
answer that is clear,
simple, and wrong."

19. In the future:-
• planning scenarios will have to take
account of cascading effects and their
points of escalation
• recovery planning will have to take
place before impact
• the public will have to be more
involved

20. Civil protection will need to be:-
• a fully integrated, capillary system (local
to national)
• an order of magnitude more powerful and
better resourced than it is now
• adept at damage limitation
• more representative of the population than
it is now
• taken seriously as a vital public service
• democratic and transparent

21. Thank you for listening
david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
slideshare.net/dealexander