1. Climate Change and the Economic Crisis:
Is prosperity possible without growth?
Dr. Peter A. Victor
26 March 2010

2. Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance,
reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?
LowGrow
Canada

3. You bet!
LowGrow
Canada

4. ‘Business as usual’
GDP per Capita
GHG Emissions
Poverty
Debt to GDP Ratio
Unemployment

5. A low/no growth scenario
How?
• Macro demand and supply stabilized
(stable population and labour force)
• Carbon price
• Shorter work year
• More generous anti-poverty programs
GDP per Capita
GHG Emissions
Unemployment
Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio

6. Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario
1. Maximum sustainable global GDP:
– GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity
– Larger if carbon footprint reduced
2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita:
– Allow for increase in population
3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita:
– Some multiple of average GDP/capita
4. LowGrow simulation for Canada

7. Global biocapacity
Global ecological footprint
Carbon footprint

8. Global biocapacity
Global ecological footprint
Carbon footprint
Carbon footprint
for ecological footprint = biocapacity

9. [2004]
[1995]
[1976]
[1963]

10. [1976]

11. A Canadian degrowth scenario
GDP per Capita
Unemployment
Poverty
GHG Emissions
Debt to GDP Ratio

15. The scenarios compared: growth drivers

16. The scenarios compared: growth drivers

17. Conclusions
1. Simulations suggest that ‘prosperity’ does not require
GDP growth
2. Depends on level of ‘sustainable’ income which in
part depends on response to climate crisis
3. Changes in the economic system require clarification