2. Failure
7 juni 2018
Water level too high Traffic load too much
Dike can slide away Structure not strong enough
3. Why probabilistics
• INPUT
• Uncertainty of input variables
• Natural variability of input variables
• OUTPUT
• Interested in sensitivity of output to input variables
• Interested in band width of output variables
• Interested in probability of failure
7 juni 2018
4. Probabilistic toolkit
Probabilistic toolkit
7 juni 2018
Prepare input
file
Existing
application
Define
uncertainties
Sensitivity
analysis
Failure
probability
Bandwidth
Inspect
calculations
Attach input and
application
Run model