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 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers                   Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers
                                         Stockholm 2011, 10 November 2011
1


Planets available        二十一世纪新前线
                        21st Century Frontiers
9 000 000 000


Number of people 2050                    二十一世纪新前线
                                        21st Century Frontiers
∞


Number of opportunities available        二十一世纪新前线
                                        21st Century Frontiers
0


Time left before we need action        二十一世纪新前线
                                      21st Century Frontiers
1.   Var är vi?

2.   Hjältar i ett nytt århundrande

3.   Att ta ledningen, inte stå och titta på (hantera de som stretar mot)

4.   Möjliga steg framåt




                                                                        二十一世纪新前线
                                                                       21st Century Frontiers
Adbusters    二十一世纪新前线
            21st Century Frontiers
Where are we?
    At the end of the road




http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx    二十一世纪新前线
                                     21st Century Frontiers
Where are we?
     Past the end of the road for the planet

         1.       There are planetary boundaries. And
                  many of them have been crossed.
         2.       The ecosystems have started to
                  collapse and conflicts are increasing.
         3.       Political and scientific agreement that
                  we need to reduce our impact by a
                  factor five/80% as soon as possible
                  (incremental improvements are not
                  enough).




The Stockholm Resilience Centre                              二十一世纪新前线
Global Footprint Network
IPCCC
                                                            21st Century Frontiers
Where are we?
     At a time when transformative solutions are needed




                                                                                          Transformative solutions




Transformative Solution Leadership                                                                                    二十一世纪新前线
http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
                                                                                                                     21st Century Frontiers
Where are we?
     In the middle of the next industrial/cultural revolution


                              1771-                           Two different phases of each technological revolution
                              The industrial
                              revolution                        INSTALLATION                 DEPLOYMENT

                              1829-
                              Steam, coal, iron
                              & railways
                                                                                   Turning
                              1875-                                                 point
                              Steel & heavy
                              engineering

                              1908-
                              Automobile, oil,
                              mass production                     More efficiently          Applying paradigm to
                                                               solving old problems       innovate across society
                              1971-                            - winners among old            – new winners
                                                                      players                                         Time
                              IT &
                                                                 20-30 years
                              telecommunication

Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez,                                                      二十一世纪新前线
Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Where are we in this country?
     Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness




                                  SWEDEN




http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/             二十一世纪新前线
                                                 21st Century Frontiers
Heroes in
the 21 st century
Being a ICT company in the 21st century




               ACT 1
             The Crime


 The scientific discussion 1900-1962 =>
                                           二十一世纪新前线
                                          21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
ACT 2
            The Villain


The pollution debate 1972-2008 (5 May) =>
                                             二十一世纪新前线
                                            21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
Hunting the villain
     What is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problem
     or is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)


                                     Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)




                     From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/                                                                二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                                               21st Century Frontiers
ACT 3
                                      The Hero


            Remember, remember the2009/11 => 2011
               The solution era 5th of December
http://www.transformative-step.net/                  二十一世纪新前线
                                                    21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
Few understand how much money that must change direction
  New ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged
  and new business successes welcomed.




         $350 trillion
                    to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures
                    over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as
                    mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP
Booz and Co. 2010                                                                      二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                      21st Century Frontiers
BIG PROBLEMS
    Too many good solutions, that are too good in too many areas




http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463                                    二十一世纪新前线
                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Taking the
      lead
Approach


      Direct emissions/ local                  Embedded emissions/ low carbon             Solutions/ global development
            reductions                                    trade




         Reduce/move                                         Address the                          Develop
        direct problems                                     Full Life-Cycle                    Global Solutions




Transformative Solution Leadership                                                                                  二十一世纪新前线
http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
                                                                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Being a company in the 21st century: Problems




                     Company’s/Sectors own emissions

                     FOCUS ON ZERO




                                                        二十一世纪新前线
                                                       21st Century Frontiers
Being a company in the 21st century: Solutions

                         Company’s/Sectors own emissions
                         (e.g. ICT sector)

                         FOCUS ON DRIVERS
                         FOR INNOVATION




                          The emissions the solution company/sector can
                          help reduce
                          (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)

                          FOCUS ON
                          EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
                                                                    二十一世纪新前线
                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Embrace transformative transparency
> Give us future directions, lobbying, story chains, etc




                                                            二十一世纪新前线
                                                           21st Century Frontiers
Identify and lobby for transformative thresholds

Relevance/how easy
different solutions are to                    The opportunity hook
implement                                     Threshold levels for transformative change




Relevance for old ways
                                                               Threshold level
of providing a service
Relevance for
transformative ways of
providing a service
Difficulty to implement
solution




                             0-25   25-75                           75-90                  90-100
                                     % Change needed compared with baseline
Possible steps
      forward




                  二十一世纪新前线
                 21st Century Frontiers
Fun!!

  1. Think about what you already do
    Enjoy being a leader, but get the numbers in place (magnitudes)
  2. Participate
    Transformative step of the day, track out of the box on Twitter, etc
  3. Use the nine billion filter
    Help drive innovation and export of smart services
  4. Legacy
    Create/join a transformative teams to be proud of:
     • Digital Alexandria
     • 21st Century Office
     • Plus Buildings
     • 24/7 Health
  5. Set planet positive targets
    Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of
    the world and make sure that the money spent goes to those
    reinvesting it for the 21st century…

                                                                            二十一世纪新前线
                                                                           21st Century Frontiers
谢谢!
Sustainable development
“Det finns saker man
måste göra, även om
det är farligt. Annars är
man ingen människa,
utan bara en liten lort.”
Being a company in the 21st century: new clusters

The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things
(>50 billions 2020)




                                                           二十一世纪新前线
                                                          21st Century Frontiers
Being a company in the 21st century: 0 to 9 bil




                                                   二十一世纪新前线
                                                  21st Century Frontiers
Push for a move from problems to new solutions




     Incremental improvements   Technology   Transformative
   in existing systems             leaps        solutions
                                                               二十一世纪新前线
                                                              21st Century Frontiers
Long-term GDP trends
                                                      Goldman Sachs


               50000                                                                                 China
                                                                                                     US
               40000
                                                                                                     Japan
               30000
       $USbn




                                                                                                     Germany
               20000                                                                                 UK
                                                                                                     France
               10000
                                                                                                     Italy
                   0                                                                                 India
                        2000
                               2005
                                      2010
                                             2015
                                                    2020
                                                           2025
                                                                  2030
                                                                         2035
                                                                                2040
                                                                                       2045
                                                                                              2050
                                                                                                     EU-4



Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs                                                             二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                                              21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers

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111109 åF Stockholm

  • 1. Akt 3 har börjat vem är med, vem tittar på och vem stretar mot 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers Stockholm 2011, 10 November 2011
  • 2.
  • 3. 1 Planets available 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 4. 9 000 000 000 Number of people 2050 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 5. ∞ Number of opportunities available 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 6. 0 Time left before we need action 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 7. 1. Var är vi? 2. Hjältar i ett nytt århundrande 3. Att ta ledningen, inte stå och titta på (hantera de som stretar mot) 4. Möjliga steg framåt 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 8. Adbusters 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 9. Where are we? At the end of the road http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 10. Where are we? Past the end of the road for the planet 1. There are planetary boundaries. And many of them have been crossed. 2. The ecosystems have started to collapse and conflicts are increasing. 3. Political and scientific agreement that we need to reduce our impact by a factor five/80% as soon as possible (incremental improvements are not enough). The Stockholm Resilience Centre 二十一世纪新前线 Global Footprint Network IPCCC 21st Century Frontiers
  • 11. Where are we? At a time when transformative solutions are needed Transformative solutions Transformative Solution Leadership 二十一世纪新前线 http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf 21st Century Frontiers
  • 12. Where are we? In the middle of the next industrial/cultural revolution 1771- Two different phases of each technological revolution The industrial revolution INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT 1829- Steam, coal, iron & railways Turning 1875- point Steel & heavy engineering 1908- Automobile, oil, mass production More efficiently Applying paradigm to solving old problems innovate across society 1971- - winners among old – new winners players Time IT & 20-30 years telecommunication Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, 二十一世纪新前线 Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex 21st Century Frontiers
  • 13. Where are we in this country? Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness SWEDEN http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 14. Heroes in the 21 st century
  • 15. Being a ICT company in the 21st century ACT 1 The Crime The scientific discussion 1900-1962 => 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 17. ACT 2 The Villain The pollution debate 1972-2008 (5 May) => 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 19. Hunting the villain What is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problem or is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad) Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1) From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 20. ACT 3 The Hero Remember, remember the2009/11 => 2011 The solution era 5th of December http://www.transformative-step.net/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 22. Few understand how much money that must change direction New ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged and new business successes welcomed. $350 trillion to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP Booz and Co. 2010 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 23. BIG PROBLEMS Too many good solutions, that are too good in too many areas http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 24. Taking the lead
  • 25. Approach Direct emissions/ local Embedded emissions/ low carbon Solutions/ global development reductions trade Reduce/move Address the Develop direct problems Full Life-Cycle Global Solutions Transformative Solution Leadership 二十一世纪新前线 http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf 21st Century Frontiers
  • 26. Being a company in the 21st century: Problems Company’s/Sectors own emissions FOCUS ON ZERO 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 27. Being a company in the 21st century: Solutions Company’s/Sectors own emissions (e.g. ICT sector) FOCUS ON DRIVERS FOR INNOVATION The emissions the solution company/sector can help reduce (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030) FOCUS ON EXPONENTIAL GROWTH 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 28. Embrace transformative transparency > Give us future directions, lobbying, story chains, etc 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 29. Identify and lobby for transformative thresholds Relevance/how easy different solutions are to The opportunity hook implement Threshold levels for transformative change Relevance for old ways Threshold level of providing a service Relevance for transformative ways of providing a service Difficulty to implement solution 0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100 % Change needed compared with baseline
  • 30. Possible steps forward 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 31. Fun!! 1. Think about what you already do Enjoy being a leader, but get the numbers in place (magnitudes) 2. Participate Transformative step of the day, track out of the box on Twitter, etc 3. Use the nine billion filter Help drive innovation and export of smart services 4. Legacy Create/join a transformative teams to be proud of: • Digital Alexandria • 21st Century Office • Plus Buildings • 24/7 Health 5. Set planet positive targets Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of the world and make sure that the money spent goes to those reinvesting it for the 21st century… 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 33. “Det finns saker man måste göra, även om det är farligt. Annars är man ingen människa, utan bara en liten lort.”
  • 34. Being a company in the 21st century: new clusters The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things (>50 billions 2020) 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 35. Being a company in the 21st century: 0 to 9 bil 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 36. Push for a move from problems to new solutions Incremental improvements Technology Transformative in existing systems leaps solutions 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 37. Long-term GDP trends Goldman Sachs 50000 China US 40000 Japan 30000 $USbn Germany 20000 UK France 10000 Italy 0 India 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EU-4 Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Reflecting of our image and overall opportunites.Start with buzz groups. What does this mean to them – opportunities, risks, expectations