1. Akt 3 har börjat
vem är med, vem tittar på och vem stretar mot
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers
Stockholm 2011, 10 November 2011
7. 1. Var är vi?
2. Hjältar i ett nytt århundrande
3. Att ta ledningen, inte stå och titta på (hantera de som stretar mot)
4. Möjliga steg framåt
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
9. Where are we?
At the end of the road
http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
10. Where are we?
Past the end of the road for the planet
1. There are planetary boundaries. And
many of them have been crossed.
2. The ecosystems have started to
collapse and conflicts are increasing.
3. Political and scientific agreement that
we need to reduce our impact by a
factor five/80% as soon as possible
(incremental improvements are not
enough).
The Stockholm Resilience Centre 二十一世纪新前线
Global Footprint Network
IPCCC
21st Century Frontiers
11. Where are we?
At a time when transformative solutions are needed
Transformative solutions
Transformative Solution Leadership 二十一世纪新前线
http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
21st Century Frontiers
12. Where are we?
In the middle of the next industrial/cultural revolution
1771- Two different phases of each technological revolution
The industrial
revolution INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT
1829-
Steam, coal, iron
& railways
Turning
1875- point
Steel & heavy
engineering
1908-
Automobile, oil,
mass production More efficiently Applying paradigm to
solving old problems innovate across society
1971- - winners among old – new winners
players Time
IT &
20-30 years
telecommunication
Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, 二十一世纪新前线
Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex 21st Century Frontiers
13. Where are we in this country?
Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness
SWEDEN
http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/ 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
19. Hunting the villain
What is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problem
or is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)
Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)
From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
20. ACT 3
The Hero
Remember, remember the2009/11 => 2011
The solution era 5th of December
http://www.transformative-step.net/ 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
22. Few understand how much money that must change direction
New ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged
and new business successes welcomed.
$350 trillion
to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures
over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as
mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP
Booz and Co. 2010 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
23. BIG PROBLEMS
Too many good solutions, that are too good in too many areas
http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
25. Approach
Direct emissions/ local Embedded emissions/ low carbon Solutions/ global development
reductions trade
Reduce/move Address the Develop
direct problems Full Life-Cycle Global Solutions
Transformative Solution Leadership 二十一世纪新前线
http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
21st Century Frontiers
26. Being a company in the 21st century: Problems
Company’s/Sectors own emissions
FOCUS ON ZERO
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21st Century Frontiers
27. Being a company in the 21st century: Solutions
Company’s/Sectors own emissions
(e.g. ICT sector)
FOCUS ON DRIVERS
FOR INNOVATION
The emissions the solution company/sector can
help reduce
(The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)
FOCUS ON
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
29. Identify and lobby for transformative thresholds
Relevance/how easy
different solutions are to The opportunity hook
implement Threshold levels for transformative change
Relevance for old ways
Threshold level
of providing a service
Relevance for
transformative ways of
providing a service
Difficulty to implement
solution
0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100
% Change needed compared with baseline
31. Fun!!
1. Think about what you already do
Enjoy being a leader, but get the numbers in place (magnitudes)
2. Participate
Transformative step of the day, track out of the box on Twitter, etc
3. Use the nine billion filter
Help drive innovation and export of smart services
4. Legacy
Create/join a transformative teams to be proud of:
• Digital Alexandria
• 21st Century Office
• Plus Buildings
• 24/7 Health
5. Set planet positive targets
Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of
the world and make sure that the money spent goes to those
reinvesting it for the 21st century…
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21st Century Frontiers
33. “Det finns saker man
måste göra, även om
det är farligt. Annars är
man ingen människa,
utan bara en liten lort.”
34. Being a company in the 21st century: new clusters
The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things
(>50 billions 2020)
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21st Century Frontiers
35. Being a company in the 21st century: 0 to 9 bil
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21st Century Frontiers
36. Push for a move from problems to new solutions
Incremental improvements Technology Transformative
in existing systems leaps solutions
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21st Century Frontiers
37. Long-term GDP trends
Goldman Sachs
50000 China
US
40000
Japan
30000
$USbn
Germany
20000 UK
France
10000
Italy
0 India
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EU-4
Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers