Thomas Dietterich, Distinguished Professor (Emeritus) and Director of Intelligent Systems Research in the School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at Oregon State University, made this presentation as part of the Cognitive Systems Institute Speaker Series on August 4, 2106.
How to Troubleshoot Apps for the Modern Connected Worker
Machine Learning for Understanding and Managing Ecosystems
1. Machine Learning for
Understanding and Managing
Ecosystems
Tom Dietterich
Oregon State University
In collaboration with
Postdocs: Dan Sheldon (now at UMass, Amherst), Mark Crowley (now at U.
Waterloo)
Graduate Students: Majid Taleghan, Kim Hall, Liping Liu, Akshat Kumar, Tao
Sun, Rachel Houtman, Sean McGregor, Hailey Buckingham
Economists: H. Jo Albers, Claire Montgomery
Cornell Lab of Ornithology: Steve Kelling, Daniel Fink,
Andrew Farnsworth, Wes Hochachka, Benjamin Van Doren,
Kevin Webb
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2. The World Faces Many
Sustainability Challenges
Species Extinctions
Invasive Species
Effects of Climate Change on these
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3. Computational Sustainability
The study of computational
methods that can contribute
to the sustainable
management of the earth’s
ecosystems
Data Models Policies
Data
Integration
Data
Interpretation
Model Fitting
Policy
Optimization
Data
Acquisition
Policy
Execution
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4. Outline:
Three Projects at Oregon State
Models of Bird Migration
Collective Graphical Models
Policy Optimization
Controlling Invasive Species
Managing Wildland Fire
Data
Integration
Data
Interpretation
Model Fitting
Policy
Optimization
Data
Acquisition
Policy
Execution
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5. BirdCast Project
Understanding Bird Migration
Goal:
Develop a scientific model of bird migration
Produce 24- and 48-hour bird migration forecasts
Understanding bird decision making
Absolute timing (e.g., based on day length)
Temperature
Wind speed and direction
Relative humidity
Food availability
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6. Data (1): www.ebird.org
Volunteer Bird
Watchers
Stationary Count
Travelling Count
Time, place,
duration, distance
travelled
Checklist of
species seen
8,000-12,000
checklists
uploaded per day
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7. Data (2): Doppler Weather Radar
Radar detects
weather (remove)
smoke, dust, and
insects (remove)
birds and bats
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8. Data (3): Acoustic monitoring
Night flight calls
People can identify species or
species groups from these
calls
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9. Modeling Goal:
Spatial Hidden Markov Model
Define a grid over the US
Consider a single bird
We say the bird is in state 𝑖𝑖 on day 𝑡𝑡 if it is
located inside cell 𝑖𝑖 on that day
Let 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡(𝑖𝑖 → 𝑗𝑗) be the probability that the
bird will fly from cell 𝑖𝑖 to cell 𝑗𝑗 on the night
from day 𝑡𝑡 to day 𝑡𝑡 + 1
We will represent this probability in terms
of variables such as
wind speed and direction
distance from 𝑖𝑖 to 𝑗𝑗
air temperature
relative humidity
day of the year
etc.
Let Θ be the coefficients of the probability
model.
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10. Simulating the Migration of a
Single Bird
Assume we know the value of Θ
The bird starts in cell 4 at time 𝑡𝑡 = 1
𝑛𝑛1 4 = 1
Simulate the first night by drawing a
cell 𝑗𝑗 according to 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 4 → 𝑗𝑗
“rolling a dice”
Repeat this for 𝑇𝑇 time steps
If we had enough bird watchers, we
could map out the trajectory of the bird
Then we could match that against our
simulated trajectory and adjust Θ until
the simulations matched the observed
behavior
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11. Simulating the Migration of a
Single Bird
Assume we know the value of Θ
The bird starts in cell 4 at time 𝑡𝑡 = 1
𝑛𝑛1 4 = 1
Simulate the first night by drawing a
cell 𝑗𝑗 according to 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 4 → 𝑗𝑗
“rolling a dice”
Repeat this for 𝑇𝑇 time steps
If we had enough bird watchers, we
could map out the trajectory of the bird
Then we could match that against our
simulated trajectory and adjust Θ until
the simulations matched the observed
behavior
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12. Simulating the Migration of a
Single Bird
Assume we know the value of Θ
The bird starts in cell 4 at time 𝑡𝑡 = 1
𝑛𝑛1 4 = 1
Simulate the first night by drawing a
cell 𝑗𝑗 according to 𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 4 → 𝑗𝑗
“rolling a dice”
Repeat this for 𝑇𝑇 time steps
If we had enough bird watchers, we
could map out the trajectory of the bird
Then we could match that against our
simulated trajectory and adjust Θ until
the simulations matched the observed
behavior
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13. Population of Birds
Consider a population of 𝑀𝑀 birds
The state of this population is a vector 𝐧𝐧𝑡𝑡 such that 𝐧𝐧𝑡𝑡(𝑖𝑖) is
the number of birds in cell 𝑖𝑖 on day 𝑡𝑡
We can simulate each of these birds moving simultaneously
each bird “rolls a dice” every night to decide where to go
If we have enough bird watchers, we can get a good estimate
of 𝐧𝐧𝑡𝑡 every day
We can compare our simulations against the observations
and adjust Θ until they match
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14. This is very slow
Computer Science to the rescue
Formulate the problem mathematically
Formalism is called the “Collective Graphical Model”
(CGM)
Develop algorithms for probabilistic inference
Use these algorithms to fit the model to the observations
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22. Need to Constrain the Model
Problem: The migration model tends to “store” birds in
Canada
There are no observations there, so the model is not constrained by
the data
Solution: Constrain the model
Specify the times and places where the CGM is allowed to have birds
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26. Outline:
Three Projects at Oregon State
Models of Bird Migration
Collective Graphical Models
Policy Optimization
Controlling Invasive Species
Managing Wildland Fire
Data
Integration
Data
Interpretation
Model Fitting
Policy
Optimization
Data
Acquisition
Policy
Execution
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27. Invasive Species Management in
River Networks
Tamarisk: invasive tree from the
Middle East
Out-competes native vegetation for
water
Reduces biodiversity
What is the best way to manage
a spatially-spreading organism?
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28. Mathematical Model
Tree-structured river network
Each segment 𝑒𝑒 has 𝐻𝐻 “sites” where a tree
can grow.
Each site can be
{empty, occupied by native, occupied by
invasive}
Management actions
Each segment: {do nothing, eradicate,
restore, eradicate+restore}
𝑒𝑒1 𝑒𝑒2
𝑒𝑒3
𝑒𝑒4
𝑒𝑒5
n
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32. Dynamics and Objective
Dynamics:
In each time period
Natural death
Seed production
Seed dispersal (preferentially downstream)
𝑒𝑒1 𝑒𝑒2
𝑒𝑒3
𝑒𝑒4
𝑒𝑒5
n
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33. Dynamics and Objective
Dynamics:
In each time period
Natural death
Seed production
Seed dispersal (preferentially downstream)
Seed competition to become established
𝑒𝑒1 𝑒𝑒2
𝑒𝑒3
𝑒𝑒4
𝑒𝑒5
tnnnn
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34. Dynamics and Objective
Dynamics:
In each time period
Natural death
Seed production
Seed dispersal (preferentially downstream)
Seed competition to become established
Couples all edges because of spatial spread
Inference is intractable
𝑒𝑒1 𝑒𝑒2
𝑒𝑒3
𝑒𝑒4
𝑒𝑒5
tnnnn
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35. Dynamics and Objective
Dynamics:
In each time period
Natural death
Seed production
Seed dispersal (preferentially downstream)
Seed competition to become established
Couples all edges because of spatial spread
Inference is intractable
Objective:
Minimize expected discounted costs
(sum of cost of invasion plus cost of
management)
Subject to annual budget constraint
𝑒𝑒1 𝑒𝑒2
𝑒𝑒3
𝑒𝑒4
𝑒𝑒5
tnnnn
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36. Finding the Optimal Management
Policy
Formalize as a Markov Decision Process
Solve by Stochastic Dynamic Programming
SDP requires transition matrix 𝑇𝑇 𝑖𝑖, 𝑗𝑗, 𝑎𝑎 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑗𝑗|𝑖𝑖, 𝑎𝑎)
We don’t know 𝑇𝑇
Solution:
Write a simulator
Draw Monte Carlo samples from simulator to estimate 𝑇𝑇[𝑖𝑖, 𝑗𝑗, 𝑎𝑎]
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37. Solving the Tamarisk MDP using
Monte Carlo Samples
Repeat
Use the current policy to choose a state 𝑖𝑖 and management action 𝑎𝑎
Invoke the simulator
𝑖𝑖, 𝑎𝑎 → (𝑗𝑗, 𝑐𝑐)
𝑗𝑗 is the resulting state
𝑐𝑐 is the cost of the action and the resulting state
Update our model of 𝑇𝑇
Apply stochastic dynamic programming to compute an improved policy
Until the policy has converged
Key question: What 𝑖𝑖, 𝑎𝑎 should we choose?
Our answer: The DDV heuristic
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38. Comparison against best previous
Monte Carlo MDP planning method
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1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
NumberofSamples
MDP
DDV
Fiechter
39. Published Rule of Thumb Policies
for Invasive Species Management
Triage Policy
Treat most-invaded edge first
Break ties by treating upstream first
Leading edge
Eradicate along the leading edge of invasion
Chades, et al.
Treat most-upstream invaded edge first
Break ties by amount of invasion
DDV
Our PAC solution
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40. Cost Comparisons:
Rule of Thumb Policies vs. DDV
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Large pop, up
to down
Chades Leading Edge Optimal
Total Costs
Triage DDVChades Leading
Edge
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41. Outline:
Three Projects at Oregon State
Models of Bird Migration
Collective Graphical Models
Policy Optimization
Controlling Invasive Species
Managing Wildland Fire
Data
Integration
Data
Interpretation
Model Fitting
Policy
Optimization
Data
Acquisition
Policy
Execution
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42. Managing Wildfire in Eastern
Oregon
Natural state:
Large Ponderosa Pine trees with
open understory
Frequent “ground fires” that remove
understory plants (grasses, shrubs)
but do not damage trees
Fires have been suppressed since
1920s
Heavy accumulation of fuels in
understory
Large catastrophic fires that kill all
trees and damage soils
Huge firefighting costs and lives lost
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43. Study Area: Deschutes National
Forest
Goal: Return the landscape
to its “natural” fire regime
Management Question:
LET-BURN: When lightning
ignites a fire, should we let it
burn?
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44. Formulating LETBURN as a Markov
Decision Process 〈𝑆𝑆, 𝐴𝐴, 𝑅𝑅, 𝑇𝑇, 𝛾𝛾〉
State space: 𝑆𝑆
4000 management units; each unit is in one of 25 local states
Weather
Ignition site
Action space: 𝐴𝐴
At fire ignition time 𝑡𝑡, 𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡 ∈ 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿, 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆
Reward function: 𝑅𝑅(𝑠𝑠, ℓ, 𝑎𝑎)
Cost of lost timber value
Cost of lost species habitat
Cost of fire suppression
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𝑠𝑠𝑡𝑡
ignition
𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡
action
ℓ𝑡𝑡
fire outcome
𝑠𝑠𝑡𝑡+1
new ignition
fire simulator lightning
simulator
𝑟𝑟𝑡𝑡
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45. The Simulator is Very Expensive
Simulating one fire can take from 5 to 60 minutes (depending
on the size of the fire)
FARSITE
Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)
Lightning Strike model
Weather Simulator
Monte Carlo methods require at least 106 simulator calls
What can we do?
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46. Current Strategy:
Policy Search using a Surrogate
Model
Define a parameterized space of policies: 𝜋𝜋𝜃𝜃 𝑠𝑠 = 𝑎𝑎
Simulate an initial set of 100-year trajectories under a variety
of policies
Apply Bayesian Optimization (SMAC; Hutter, et al., 2011) to
find the optimal value of 𝜃𝜃
To simulate 𝜋𝜋𝜃𝜃′ for some new 𝜃𝜃′
, apply the Model-Free
Monte Carlo algorithm (Fonteneau, et al., 2013)
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47. A Simpler Problem:
LETBURN one year
Is there any benefit to allowing fires to burn for just
one year?
Year 1: LETBURN
Years 2-100: SUPPRESS ALL
Evaluate via Monte Carlo trials
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48. Expected Benefit of LETBURN
(Suppress all fires after year 1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
Frequency
Expected Benefit (x $100,000)
mean = $2.47
million
median =
$2.74
million
48[Houtman, Montgomery, Gagnon, Calkin, Dietterich, McGregor, Crowley 2013]IBM Cognitive Computing
49. Summary
Models of Bird Migration
Collective Graphical Models
Policy Optimization
Controlling Invasive Species
Managing Wildland Fire
Data
Integration
Data
Interpretation
Model Fitting
Policy
Optimization
Data
Acquisition
Policy
Execution
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50. Common Threads
Spatially-spreading processes
Bird migration
Invasive species
Fire spread
Dynamical model
CGM: Spatial HMM with clever inference
Simulator of seed spread
Simulator of fire spread
Computational challenges
Efficient probabilistic inference
Minimize calls to expensive simulators
Value of information heuristics + PAC guarantees
Bayesian optimization
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51. Thank-you
Dan Sheldon, Akshat Kumar, Tao Sun: Collective Graphical Models
Steve Kelling, Andrew Farnsworth, Wes Hochachka, Daniel Fink:
BirdCast
H. Jo Albers, Kim Hall, Majid Taleghan, Mark Crowley: Tamarisk
Claire Montgomery, Sean McGregor, Mark Crowley, Rachel Houtman
Carla Gomes for spearheading the Institute for Computational
Sustainability
National Science Foundation Grants 0832804 (CompSust), 1331932
(CyberSEES), 1125228 (Birdcast), 1521687 (CompSustNet)
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52. Common Threads
Spatially-spreading processes
Bird migration
Invasive species
Fire spread
Dynamical model
CGM: Spatial HMM with clever inference
Simulator of seed spread
Simulator of fire spread
Computational challenges
Efficient probabilistic inference
Minimize calls to expensive simulators
Value of information heuristics + PAC guarantees
Bayesian optimization
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