XP/Ipespe na véspera do primeiro turno das eleições de 2018

XPPresidentialPoll–Round20
October, 2018

2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of Error
May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -
June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2
September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2
October Wk1 Oct-03 to Oct-04 BR-06509/2018 2,000 2.2
XP Presidential Polls
Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Coverage: National
Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Poll - Details
All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here.

3
Political Analysis
GENDER REGION
MALE 48% NORTH 8%
FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%
16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%
18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%
35 TO 54 YO 40% TYPE OF CITY
+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 15%
WORKING 61% COUNTRY TOWNS 61%
NOT WORKING 39% CITY SIZE
INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 35%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 24% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 26% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 17%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 26%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 13% RELIGION
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 1% CATHOLIC 57%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 25%
EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 9% SPIRITTUALISM 4%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 30% ADVENTITST 1%
HIGH SCHOOL 43% OTHER 4%
HIGHER EDUCATION 18% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The last round of XP Presidential Poll before the Presidential elections first-round shows that Jairo
Bolsonaro (PSL) enlarged his gap to Fernando Haddad (PT), reaching 36%, 8 p.p., more than last week.
He is now 14 p.p. ahead of his rival, who reached 22%. Regarding valid votes, Bolsonaro has 41% -- in
order to win the election in the first-round, he needs to receive more than 50% of votes.
Regarding the second-round scenario, Bolsonaro and Haddad remained tied, within the margin of error,
but Bolsonaro appears now ahead of Haddad (43% to 42%). Last week, PT candidate was leading, 43%
to 39%.
The interviews of this 20th round of presidential poll were conducted on Wednesday and on Thursday.
They show positive scenarios for Bolsonaro in three other questions:
1 – The rejection of Fernando Haddad increased again, reaching 65% of voters saying they wouldn’t vote
for him in any case, while Bolsonaro’s stopped around 59%, one point less than last week.
2 – Haddad is now considered the worst president for Brazil for 40% of voters, 10 p.p. ahead of
Bolsonaro. Last week, Haddad received this “veto” from 38% of voters, and Bolsonaro from 36%.
3 – 54% of voters claim that Bolsonaro is going to win the election, the highest rate since May.
In the Friday before the elections first-round, voters interest in the presidential election reached its highest
level: 66% claims to be “more or less” or “very interested” in the election.

5
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

6
Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous
October
Week 1

7
Political AnalysisScenario 1
October
Week 1

8
Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios

9

10

11
Political AnalysisVoter conviction
*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.

12
Political AnalysisRejection

13
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity

14
Political Analysis
Would
Surely Vote
Could Vote
Wouldn't
Vote
Dont't Know
Enough
Don'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswer
Total
BOLSONARO 32% 10% 59% 0% 0% 100%
HADDAD 20% 12% 65% 4% 0% 100%
CIRO 12% 24% 58% 5% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 6% 21% 64% 6% 2% 100%
AMÔEDO 6% 17% 48% 29% 1% 100%
MARINA 4% 16% 75% 5% 1% 100%
A. DIAS 3% 18% 55% 22% 1% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
October
Week 1

15
Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory
October
Week 1

16
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

17
Political AnalysisInterest in the election

18
Political AnalysisVeto

19
Political AnalysisHow the angry vote?
This week, 27% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.
MICRODATA
SPECIAL

20
Political AnalysisVote migration
Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro
MICRODATA
SPECIAL
FERNANDO
HADDAD
JAIR
BOLSONARO
N/BL/NL
/DK/DA
FERNANDO
HADDAD
JAIR
BOLSONARO
N/BL/NL
/DK/DA
TOTAL
ÁLVARO DIAS 1% 1% 1% ÁLVARO DIAS 44% 24% 32% 100%
CIRO GOMES 7% 0% 3% CIRO GOMES 68% 4% 28% 100%
FERNANDO HADDAD 21% 0% 1% FERNANDO HADDAD 97% 0% 3% 100%
GERALDO ALCKMIN 1% 4% 2% GERALDO ALCKMIN 8% 59% 33% 100%
GUILHERME BOULOS 0% 0% 0% GUILHERME BOULOS 63% 0% 38% 100%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 0% 0% HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 70% 8% 23% 100%
JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 36% 0% JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 99% 1% 100%
MARINA SILVA 2% 0% 1% MARINA SILVA 65% 4% 31% 100%
VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 0% VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 100% 100%
JOÃO AMOÊDO 1% 1% 1% JOÃO AMOÊDO 45% 32% 23% 100%
CABO DACIOLO 1% 0% 0% CABO DACIOLO 70% 4% 26% 100%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 0% JOÃO GOULART FILHO - - - -
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 0% JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 100% 0% 0% 100%
NÃO RESPONDEU 1% 0% 1% NÃO RESPONDEU 51% 16% 32% 100%
NÃO SABE 2% 0% 1% NÃO SABE 48% 13% 39% 100%
NENHUM / BRANCO / NULO 4% 0% 3% NENHUM / BRANCO / NULO 48% 5% 47% 100%
TOTAL 42% 43% 15%
Vote Migration: 1st to 2nd round (% of candidates' voters)Vote Migration: 1st to 2nd round (% of total voters)

21
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or
severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is
confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

XP/Ipespe na véspera do primeiro turno das eleições de 2018

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (18)

Similaire à XP/Ipespe na véspera do primeiro turno das eleições de 2018

Similaire à XP/Ipespe na véspera do primeiro turno das eleições de 2018 (20)

Plus de diariodocentrodomundo

Plus de diariodocentrodomundo (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

XP/Ipespe na véspera do primeiro turno das eleições de 2018