Study on how major hurricane would effect the historical sites of St. john\'s county.

1. Major Hurricane Landfall Storm Surge Analysis St. John’s County, Florida Analysis of Historical Site Locations and Damage Produced by David Renna GIS 4048/ Application in GIS 08/04/2010

2. Introduction Hurricane Season: June 1 – Nov. 30 No major hurricane direct landfall Last direct landfall- Dora,1964 Cat.2 St. John’s County is oldest historic area in U.S. More historic sites in county than anywhere else (4400) County economy dependent on tourism Tourism dependent on existence of historical sites What would happen to historic sites if major hurricane made direct landfall?

3. Study Area St. John’s County, Florida Located in North East Florida Surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the East, Duval County to the North, Clay and Putnam Counties to the West and Flagler County to the South.

4. BackgroundSt. Augustine, Fl America’s oldest town Founded in 1513 by Ponce de Leon in an effort to find the exact location of the “Fountain of Youth” Established in 1565 Spanish settlers have occupied area for 500 years Spanish, British, French , and Indian settlements battled over rights to these lands for 300 years In the efforts of control of lands, hundreds of forts were built in times of war Forts are displayed throughout St. John’s County

5. BackgroundSt. John’s County Historic Sites 163,000 Federal applications for historic site designation 4400 designated sites used for this study Historic sites are prime reason for tourism in St. John’s County. Historic sites: forts churches schoolhouses jails museums houses lighthouses DowMuseum St. Augustine Lighthouse St. AugustineCathedral Oldest Schoolhouse

6. BackgroundMajor Hurricane Direct Landfall No major hurricane has ever made direct landfall in St. John’s County Last Direct Landfall: Hurricane Dora, 1964, Category 2 Last East coast landfall of major hurricane Jeanne in 2004(S. Florida, Cat.3) Major Hurricanes as designated by NOAA are Category 3 or greater NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Designed model at fas.org

7. Elevation Highest elevation in St. John’s County~ 75 ft. More than 75% of historic sites in areas considered to have low elevation and close proximity to water Large concentrations of historic sites in St. Augustine historic downtown area in middle Eastern portion of county and in South West Region of St. John’s County Smaller clusters of historic sites along St. John’s river, intracoastal waterway and along beaches St. John’s County surrounded by water from St. John’s River to the West and the Atlantic ocean to the East

8. Downtown St. Augustine Closer view of downtown St. Augustine Thousands of historic structures in downtown alone Almost all sites along waterways Large cluster of historic structures in very small area

9. Flood AnalysisCategory 3 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands 29.179% of total area flooded. Historic sites within ~ 1.5-2 miles of coast all under water. Historical sites along St. John’s river under water as arterial rivers and canals flood. Downtown St. Augustine full engulfed. Approximately half historic structures (over 2000) in county destroyed due to storm surge.

10. Flood AnalysisCategory 4 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands 34.39% total area flooded Historic sites within ~ 2- 2.5 miles of coast under water All historic sites along St. John’s river under water Additional flooding along arterial rivers and canals moving Eastward and covering most areas of South West St. John’s County Historic Downtown St. Augustine completely destroyed due to storm surge Flooding moving West past US 1 and engulfing more than 70% of historic sites

11. Flood AnalysisCategory 5 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands 47.23% total area flooded Historic sites within ~ 3-4 miles of coast under water All historic sites along St. John’s River completely destroyed Complete flooding of Western portion of St. John’s County All arterial rivers and canals engulfed by rising waters Nearly 90% of all historic sites destroyed in St. John’s County due to storm surge

12. Additional Wind DamageNOAA Guidelines Category 3 Hurricane : Poorly constructed frame homes destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage due to roof removal. Category 4 Hurricane: Poorly constructed and well-built homes can sustain complete collapse of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and penetrate some protected windows. Category 5 Hurricane: A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows.

13. Results Category 3: 29% of total lands flooded Historical site along coastline and along St. John’s River flooded. Downtown St. Augustine under water. Nearly 50% all historical sites under water. Wind damage would also be substantial. Category 4: 34% of total lands flooded. Historical sites within 2.5 miles of coast and St. John’s River flooded . 70% of historical sites under water. Wind damage at catastrophic levels. Category 5: 47% of total lands flooded. Historical sites within 3.5 miles of coast line and along St. John’s River and arterial canals completely destroyed.. 90% of historical sites under water. All structure completely destroyed by storm surge and wind damage.

14. Conclusion The importance of the historical sites to St. John’s County is evident. The tourism due to these site is the only viable means of income to this area. A hurricane of category 3 or higher would completely destroy the economics of the area. All of the historical sites in St. John’s County would be destroyed. Hurricanes have traditionally remained well off our coast. It has been a long time since St. John’s County has had a direct landfall. Study shows the importance of readiness in the face of crisis. Due to results there is hope that local and government official put more thought into protecting these structures. Perhaps new laws laying out formal plans to protect historical structures in such an event are in our near future.

15. References Corbett, Theodore G. “Migration to a Spanish Imperial Frontier in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries: St. Augustine” , The Hispanic American Historical Review, Volume 54. No. 3(August 1974), pp. 414-430. Wolkomir, R. “in Search of St. Augustine”, The Smithsonian, Volume 32, No. 7 (October 2001). Pp. 114-120. Historical Markers of Florida, Division of Historical Resources, Florida Historical Markers Program, Florida Heritiage.com, http://flheritage.com/preservation/markers/markers.cfm/ID-st.johns NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.fas.org The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Summary Table, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml Data Sources: St. John’s County Data Depot http://www.sjcfl.us/BCC/Land_Management/GIS/DataDepot.aspx Florida Geographic Data Library http://www.fdgl.org/