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Role of Government in Increasing Broadband Penetration Lessons from Asia Helani Galpaya LIRNE asia   Lima, Peru  18 May 2011 This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the International Development Research Centre, Canada and the Department for International Development, UK.
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KOREA
Korea is everyone’s benchmark.  High BB access, useage Source: OECD Communication Outlook Documents, 1999 – 2009;  Gartner, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object]
A mix of FTTx, Cable, xDSL, other technologies for BB Source: OECD Communication Outlook documents
How did Korea get there? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Gathering momentum, 1980-1994 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Among others, Harindranath & Liebenau, National Information Infrastructure Policies in International Perspective. Available at  http://www.docin.com/p-68100028.html
Gathering momentum, 1980-1994 …contd. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Among others, Yoo J J, Lee H H  and Yim C H, Naitional Information Infrastructure in Korea, from  www.itu.int/TELECOM/wt99/cfp/auth/3205/pap_3205.doc
Reform and take-off, 1994-2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consolidating growth with global ambitions, 2004 - ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Money! Source: MIC, A critique of Korean National Information Strategy: case of national informational infrastructure, Dong Hee-Shin + Year Policy Investment, USD m 1984 National Basic Information Systems (NBIS) 200 1987-96 National Database Computerization Project 5,536 1992 Korea Information Infrastructure (KII), 1992 40,000 1993-02 Informatization Promotion Fund 7,800 1994 GATS Tax concessions for those in high-tech and value- added sectors 1999 Cyber Korea 21 918 2004 Information Technology 839 (IT 839) 70,000 2006 e-Korea Vision 84.4 2007 Broadband IT Korea Vision 2009-13 Ultra Broadband Convergence Network 62
Demand pull:  Gaming ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key themes in the Korean journey ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Can Korean model be replicated in emerging Asia? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Korea cannot be replicated in Sri Lanka (& other emerging economies)  ,[object Object],[object Object],Population (mid 2009) 20.45 million Wireless connections (2010 Q2) 15.86 m GSM +2.61 m CDMA= 18.47 Wireline connections (2010 Q2) 875,509 Cable households Negligible (terrestrial & satellite TV dominate) Estimated # of households 4,744,780 Maximum % of households with potential for wire-guided broadband, most generous assumptions 18%  Percentage of wireless-connected households, using harsh assumptions 55% CDMA + 20% GSM  = 75% Period of 3G supply by 3 operators 7 years; 3 years intense competition E Sri Lanka project costs (USD 83 m, huge by LK standards) as percentage of Korean investment Less than 1 percent
HONG KONG ,[object Object]
The Future Broadband Network: Market-Led or Government-Led? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market-Led Approach has role for government  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Telecommunications Policy in Hong Kong ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Telecommunications Policy in Hong Kong ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK: Market-Led Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK:  Measures to Facilitate  Broadband Deployment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK: Measures to Facilitate  Broadband Deployment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK: Measures to Facilitate  Broadband Deployment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK: Measures to Facilitate Broadband Deployment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
HK: Measures to Facilitate Broadband Deployment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hong Kong: Fixed Broadband Penetration by household ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hong Kong: Fixed Broadband Traffic
Hong Kong: Mobile Data Service Penetration
Hong Kong: Mobile Data Traffic Increased  19.9  times  over  two  years ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Information Service Dept., Hong Kong SAR ( www.gov.hk ) and OFTA ( www.ofta.gov.lk ); Nov 2010
Hong Kong and Korea outcomes and inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SRI LANKA
Example of programmatic approach: e Sri Lanka design (2002-04) Regional telecom networks & telecenters E-gov E-business development fund E society fund E-leadership ,[object Object],[object Object]
Example of programmatic approach: e Sri Lanka design (2002-04) No regional telecom networks; commercial telecenters (will remain in long term) E-gov E-business development fund E society fund E-leadership ,[object Object],[object Object]
What happened (separate from e-SL): emergence of Budget Telecom Network Model.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
… giving low mobile voice & SMS prices Source: Nokia
Consequences and natural evolution of BTNM  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
..leading to cheap mobile data access BD, IN, PK – Cheapest  among all countries IN, PK, LK –most affordable  group
… with quality that’s NOT relatively inferior to fixed BB products  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  www.lirneasia.net ;  Note: sample results shown.  Time series data for bi-annual BB quality of service testing available at  www.lirneasia.net .
But bottlenecks/limits being reached ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Local backbone: problematic ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
International connectivity: problematic ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low supply of int’l cables Source: Global Marine Systems Ltd.  Fewer cables in Indian Ocean, compared to Pacific, Atlantic
Resulting higher prices Source: TeleGeography $9~10 $32~52 $10~11 Asian Backhaul prices  = 3 x N.American or European prices
Sri Lanka: room for improvement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CHOICES
Key decisions to make ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Most relevant choice: Subsidy-driven vs. market-driven ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Organic-programmatic continuum ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CONCLUSION
Nature of the state is key ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Our mission ,[object Object]
Thank you

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Broadband Access Strategies in Asia

  • 1. Role of Government in Increasing Broadband Penetration Lessons from Asia Helani Galpaya LIRNE asia Lima, Peru 18 May 2011 This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the International Development Research Centre, Canada and the Department for International Development, UK.
  • 2.
  • 4.
  • 5. A mix of FTTx, Cable, xDSL, other technologies for BB Source: OECD Communication Outlook documents
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Money! Source: MIC, A critique of Korean National Information Strategy: case of national informational infrastructure, Dong Hee-Shin + Year Policy Investment, USD m 1984 National Basic Information Systems (NBIS) 200 1987-96 National Database Computerization Project 5,536 1992 Korea Information Infrastructure (KII), 1992 40,000 1993-02 Informatization Promotion Fund 7,800 1994 GATS Tax concessions for those in high-tech and value- added sectors 1999 Cyber Korea 21 918 2004 Information Technology 839 (IT 839) 70,000 2006 e-Korea Vision 84.4 2007 Broadband IT Korea Vision 2009-13 Ultra Broadband Convergence Network 62
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Hong Kong: Fixed Broadband Traffic
  • 29. Hong Kong: Mobile Data Service Penetration
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. … giving low mobile voice & SMS prices Source: Nokia
  • 37.
  • 38. ..leading to cheap mobile data access BD, IN, PK – Cheapest among all countries IN, PK, LK –most affordable group
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Low supply of int’l cables Source: Global Marine Systems Ltd. Fewer cables in Indian Ocean, compared to Pacific, Atlantic
  • 44. Resulting higher prices Source: TeleGeography $9~10 $32~52 $10~11 Asian Backhaul prices = 3 x N.American or European prices
  • 45.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Broadband IT Korea Vision – no money value in investment columns!!
  2. The Need for Regulation
  3. The Need for Regulation
  4. The Need for Regulation
  5. The Need for Regulation
  6. The Need for Regulation
  7. The Need for Regulation
  8. The Need for Regulation