Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

Reinertsen lk france 2015 11 4-15

2 532 vues

Publié le

Slides from my November 4 workshop at Lean Kanban France 2015 ( LKFR 2015 )

Publié dans : Ingénierie
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

Reinertsen lk france 2015 11 4-15

  1. 1. No part of this presentation may be reproduced without the written permission of the author. An Introduction to Second Generation Lean Product Development Lean Kanban France 2015 Paris, France November 4, 2015 Donald G. Reinertsen Reinertsen & Associates 600 Via Monte D’Oro Redondo Beach, CA 90277 U.S.A. (310)-373-5332 Internet: Don@ReinertsenAssociates.com Twitter: @dreinertsen www.ReinertsenAssociates.com
  2. 2. 2Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Seven Big Ideas of 2GLPD 1. Understand your economics. 2. Manage your queues. 3. Exploit variability. 4. Enable smaller batches. 5. Control WIP and start rates. 6. Prioritize based on economics. 7. Accelerate feedback.
  3. 3. 3Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 1. Understand Your Economics • In product development all difficult decisions involve multiple variables. • Making decisions that affect multiple variables requires quantification. • Doing such quantification, to a useful level of accuracy, is surprisingly easy.
  4. 4. 4Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Should we operate our testing process at 80 percent utilization with a 2 week queue, or at 90 percent utilization with a 4 week queue? A Typical Question
  5. 5. 5Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Making Economic Decisions Waste Cycle Time Variability Efficiency Unit Cost Value-Added Revenue Life Cycle Profits Economic SpaceProxy Variable Space Transformations
  6. 6. 6Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates The Modeling Process Create Baseline Model Determine Total Profit Impact of Missing a MOP Calculate Sensitivity Factors Model Expense Overrun Model Schedule Delay Model Value Shortfall Model Cost Overrun Model Risk Change
  7. 7. 7Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates The Model Output Life-Cycle Profit Impact -$80,000 -$500,000 -$100,000 -$150,000 -$40,000 1 Percent Expense Overrun 1 Percent Product Cost Overrun 1 Percent Value Shortfall 1 Month Delay 1 Percent Increase in Risk
  8. 8. 8Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Range of Cost of Delay Estimates Poor Intuition Average Intuition Best Case Intuition Average Analysis Quality Analysis Any Analysis Beats Intuition 200:1 50:1 10:1 2:1 1.2:1 Source: Reinertsen & Associates Clients
  9. 9. 9Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Managing Weight vs. Product Cost Engineer Supervisor Program Manager Boeing 777 Weight Reduction Decision Authority $300 $2,500 $600 Dollars per Pound
  10. 10. 10Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 2. Manage Your Queues • Many product developers assume higher utilization leads to faster development. • They neither measure nor manage the invisible queues in their process. • Consequently, they underestimate the true cost of overloading their processes. • Such overloads severely hurt all aspects of development performance.
  11. 11. Traffic at rush hour illustrates the classic characteristics of a queueing system. PhotoCopyright2000Comstock,Inc.
  12. 12. 12Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates The Effect of Capacity Utilization Queue Size vs. Capacity Utilization 0 5 10 15 20 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Capacity Utilization QueueSize Notes: Assumes M/M/1/ Queue,  = Capacity Utilization     1 2 qL
  13. 13. 13Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Total Cost Cost of Delay Cost of Excess Capacity Managing Queues Excess Product Development Resource Dollars Minimize Total Cost to Maximize Profits
  14. 14. 14Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Longer Cycle Time Lower Quality More Variability Increased Risk More Overhead Less Motivation Queues Create... Why Queues Matter Managing Queues is the key to improving product development economics.
  15. 15. 15Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 3. Exploit Variability • In manufacturing it is always desirable to reduce variability. • In product development eliminating variability eliminates innovation. • We understand the specific conditions that make variability valuable and manage our process to create these conditions. • We need development processes that function in the presence of variability.
  16. 16. 16Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Payoff vs. Price Price Payoff Expected Price Price Probabilty Asymmetric Payoffs and Option Pricing Strike Price Expected Payoff Price Expected Payoff Strike Price x =
  17. 17. 17Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Higher Variability Raises This Payoff Price Expected Payoff Payoff SD=15 Payoff SD=5 Option Price = 2, Strike Price = 50, Mean Price = 50, Standard Deviation = 5 and 15 Strike Price
  18. 18. 18Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Performance Payoff Target Fast Feedback Enables Exploitation of Good Outcomes Fast Feedback Reduces Loss from Bad Outcomes We Can Change Payoff Functions Gain Loss
  19. 19. 19Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Requirements Resources Schedule • Cost • Performance Project Control Triangle Variability Substitution Possible Constraints 1. Requirements and Resources 2. Schedule and Resources 3. Requirements and Schedule Variability on one axis can be transformed into variability on another.
  20. 20. 20Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 4. Enable Smaller Batches • When work products are invisible, batch sizes are invisible. • When batch sizes are invisible, product developers pay little attention to them. • Many companies institutionalize large batch sizes. • Batch size reduction is attractive because it is fast, easy, cheap, granular, leveraged, and reversible. • It is a great starting point for LPD. Batch Size Queues Cycle Time X 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5
  21. 21. 21Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Small BatchesLarge Batch Unreviewed Drawings Drawing Review Process 200 20 10 Weeks 1 Week
  22. 22. 22Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Small BatchesLarge Batch Unreviewed Drawings Drawing Arrival Rate 200 20 10 Weeks 1 Week Who’s First? Who’s Last?
  23. 23. 23Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Cheaper Correction Cheaper Debug Lower Cost Changes Better Economics Fewer Status Reports Faster Cycle Time Early Feedback Faster Learning Less Requirements Change Less Debug Complexity More Efficient Debug Cheaper Testing Less Non- Value- Added Better Code Fewer Open Bugs More Uptime Higher Validity Smaller Changes Benefits of Small Batch Testing
  24. 24. 24Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Setting Batch Size Economic Batch Size 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Items per Batch Cost Transaction Cost Holding Cost Total Cost
  25. 25. 25Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Typical Batch Size Problems • Megaprojects • Project funding • Project phases • Requirements definition • Project planning • Testing • Capital spending Drawing release • Design reviews • Manufacturing release • Market research • Prototyping • Post Mortems Batch sizes are often too large when we incorrectly assume large batches create economies of scale. Large batches are like rabbits in Australia, only worse.
  26. 26. 26Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 5. Control WIP and Start Rates • Many developers incorrectly assume that the sooner they start work, the sooner they will finish it. • They are constantly tempted to start too much work. • This dilutes resources and causes long transit times through their processes. • A long transit time hurts efficiency, quality, and responsiveness.
  27. 27. 27Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Little’s Formula • By constraining WIP in development processes we can control cycle time. • This approach, which is known as Lean Kanban, is currently growing rapidly in software development.       RateDepartureAverage QueueinCustomersofNumberAverage QueueinTimeWaitAverage q q q q L W L W
  28. 28. 28Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 COD Savings of Project 1 and 2 Late Start Advantages for Project 3 and 4 Control Number of Active Projects Många barn och lite mat ger tunna smörgåsar.
  29. 29. 29Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Avoiding Long Planning Horizons Datum Search Area D = Vt D = Vt A =V2 t2 Planning Horizon Error
  30. 30. 30Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Visual WIP Control Boards Ready Queue Coding Ready to Test Testing Test Complete A D E C B WIP Constraint = 10 units WIP constraints can be local, regional, or global.
  31. 31. 31Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 6. Sequence Work Correctly • The sequence in which work is processed is called the queueing discipline. • By changing the queueing discipline we can reduce the cost of a queue without decreasing the size of the queue. • Since manufacturing has homogeneous flows it always uses FIFO. • For the non-homogeneous flows of product development other approaches have better economics.
  32. 32. 32Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates The TPS Emergency Room • We desire to rigorously imitate the practices of Toyota. • All arriving patients will be processed on a FIFO basis. • We will set strict limits on WIP.
  33. 33. 33Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Cost of Delay Time 2 Cost of Delay Delay Cost First-In First-Out Last-In First-Out Project Duration Cost of Delay 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 Use FIFO for Homogeneous Flow 1 3 2 3 1
  34. 34. 34Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates Cost of Delay Time Cost of Delay Delay Cost High Weight First Low Weight First 1 2 3 Project Duration Cost of Delay Weight = COD/ Duration 1 1 10 10 2 3 3 1 3 10 1 0.1 1 23 Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) 160 7 96 Percent Reduction!
  35. 35. 35Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 7. Create Faster Feedback • When queues and batch sizes are large feedback is slow. • Slow feedback hurts quality, efficiency, and cycle time. • Feedback speed has enormous economic leverage in product development, but it is rarely explicitly managed.
  36. 36. 36Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates The Front-Loaded Lottery • A lottery ticket pays $3000 to the winning three digit number. • You can pick the numbers in two ways: • Pay $3 to select all three digits at once. • Pay $1 for the first digit, find out if it is correct, then choose if you wish to pay $1 for the second digit, and then choose if you wish to pay $1 for the third digit.
  37. 37. 37Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 100% Probability of Occurrence Value of Feedback Cumulative Investment 100% 10% Savings = $0.90 $1 $2 10% 0 $3 Savings = $0.99 1% Spend $1.00
  38. 38. 38Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 1. Understand your economics. 2. Make your queues visible and control them. 3. Create a process to exploit variability. 4. Enable smaller batches. 5. Control cycle time by controlling WIP. 6. Sequence work based on economics. 7. Accelerate feedback with smaller batches. Seven Big Ideas of 2GLPD
  39. 39. 39Copyright 2015, Reinertsen & Associates 1991 / 1997 1997 2009 Going Further Print Only Print + Kindle Print Only

×