Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems

Design Frameworks for
Analysis and Synthesis of
Complex Systems
Henk Roodt

NZ Institute of Healthcare Engineering - 2012

7/11/2012 © StoneToStars Limited 2012 1

Overview

FRAMEWORKS and MODELS?

Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic

Socio-Technical Systems are Complex

Design Frameworks to Cope with Complexity

Examples

Concluding Remarks


Framework
Structure that underlies or support a
system or a concept

Used for clarification and organisation

Highlights relationships between ideas,
principles and rules

A collection of tools, metrics, processes
that can be applied to a problem


Model

A representation of reality*

A model is a representation of the
appropriately selected characteristics
of a process or an entity**

To model a phenomenon is to
construct a formal theory that
describes and explains it *Ackoff – 1968
**Roodt - 2007


Frameworks are related to
Models

Frameworks Models

Construct Understand

Frameworks & models can help us to discover
solutions to problems we face.

Both are core to design/systems engineering.

Engineering is about Real
Solutions

We do not like snake oil We appreciate templates


Reminder from the French

If things were simple, word would
have gotten round.

Jacques Derrida


A Welsh Perspective
Cynefin Framework – Dave Snowden
Cause and effect emerges, Experts know the
no right answer good answers

Key: Patterns emerge Key: Facts
Probe – Sense - Respond Sense - Analyse - Respond

Things just happen

Key: High turbulance Policy, process, rules, right answers
Act - Sense - Respond (Best practice)
Catastrophic Breakdown


Modern World – Socio-Technical


Approach Philosophy
• Classic reductionism cannot work in a complex
environment
– The sum is greater than the parts (emergence)
– Truncation/boundary setting problematic
– Systems learn and adapt – no fixed target to try and resolve
• Use approaches that allow you to:
– Probe
– Sense
– Respond
• Cascade the problem through successive analysis/synthesis
loops to identify focus
• Relax – there will not be one right answer, only better and
worse ones


0: Solutions must fit User
Requirements
Solution Life Cycle

Shortfall
Soluton δ Solution Solution Solution
Employment Definition Specification Establishment

Operational Required Functional Operating
Effectiveness Operational Baseline Baseline
(OE) Capability (FBL) (OBL)
(ROC)

User Domain Solution Provider Domain

Definition and design have long term impact

Lifecycle framework from Oosthuizen and Roodt (2006)

1: Addressing the Need/Shortfall


2: Model-based Engineering


3: Cascading over Cynefin


4: Qualitative Descriptions


5: Develop Conceptual
Functional Solutions


6: V – Build it


Summary Cascade
Grasp hierarchy of interactions
• favour possibility above
probability (and thus allow for
emergence)
• favour co-existence (consistency)
above causality
• it must be able to rise above
temporal truncation or
bracketing (as complex systems
are constantly evolving)
• embrace hierarchical
relationships to allow for
evolutionary development


Cascade Qualitative


Cascade Quantitative


Brief Examples

• Developing a new military capability
• Design of a new hospital facility
• Frameworks for business


Military

Need: Minimum Electronic Warfare Capability to
deal with local and regional operations

CASCADE: Scenarios, Capabilities, Causalities


Military


Medical
Need (Hypothetical): PET facility for the SDHB
CASCADE the socio-technical problem
Stage gate
• Morphological Analysis of need
– Resources, societal needs, national situation, etc.
• SOA synthesis
• Pattern language design of facility
• Agent based flow model
Output:
Development of final specification and project charter

Medical


Business


Conclusion
• Design Engineering is often overlooked as a core
process.
• It is user-focussed if properly done.
• It generates traceable output
• It reduces risk significantly by surfacing issues when we
can still do something about it – at the start.
• It has been shown that the design cycle may take only
20% of the full project time, but it impacts more than
80% of the total expenditure.
• Coupled to model based engineering, it allows try-
before-buy and on-the-fly life cycle management.


Questions

www.stonetostars.co.nz

Dunedin, NZ

For a full list of references to included material,
contact info@stonetostars.co.nz


Design Frameworks for Analysis and Synthesis of Complex Systems

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