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Dr. John Rutledge Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012 Far From Equilibrium Economics:  Network Failure, Credit Crisis, and Optimal Portfolios
Our Fragile Island Economy Capital $200 trillion GDP/Work $15 trillion
Earth’s Thin, Fragile Crust
Hayek Neural Networks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lorenz Attractor Lorenz Equations Deterministic Non-periodic flows
Evolutionary Economics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crises: Cascading Network Failures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Debt, Deflation Theory of Great Depressions Irving Fisher (1933) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fisher’s Key Result: Liquidating Debt Defeats Itself ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Portfolio Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crises: Correlations Break Ddown ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary Economics and Portfolio Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crisis – 2 Period Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crisis -  Optimal  Investor 3 period model
Credit Crisis – Cash-Rich Investor 3 period model
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next Project: Value Investing Intrinsic Value, Intrinsic Risk Tradeoff
Dr. John Rutledge Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012 Far From Equilibrium Economics:  Network Failure, Credit Crisis, and Optimal Portfolios

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John Rutledge, Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Fisher, Josiah Gibbs. (dissertation supervisor, Fisher financed Gibbs Collected Works Samuelson (1998, p. 1376). “Perhaps most relevant of all for the geneses if Foundations , Edwin Bidwell Wilson was at Harvard. Wilson was the great (Josiah) Willard Gibbs’s last (and, essentially only) protégé at Yale . He was a mathematician, a mathematical physicist, a mathematical statistician, a mathematical economist, a polymath who had done first-class work in many fields of the natural and social sciences. I was perhaps his only disciple … I was vaccinated early to understand that economics and physics could share the same formal mathematical theorems.” Gibbs products, coined term statistical mechanics (explain laws of thermo using stat properties of ensembles of particles, with Boltzmann, Maxwell), invented vector calculus, Gibbs free energy. 1 st US PHD in engineering from Yale in 1863 Einstein…”greatest mind in American history” (letters to Poincare, Hilbert, Boltzmann, Mach, le Chatalier, van der Waals, Planck