Since 2015, every year we revisit and update the megatrends that shape our world. Here's the latest from 2019.

1. 1
Mega trends
…that are (re) shaping the world
UPDATED JANUARY 2019 VERSION

2. Changing our
behaviour?
Ageing
people?
Necessity
not choice?
New illnesses,
tired planet?
The left
behind?
Work-life balance
in the age of
automation?
Will we enjoy
the ride?
More
tension?
Where are
we heading?
How safe will
we feel?
A quick introduction…

3. 1. Dynamic
Populations

4. 210011,184,368,000
2050
9,771,823,000
20197,714,576,923
1978
4,304,377,112
The world population continues to grow…

5. Powered by high fertility
rates in some countries
7.2
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.0
4.6
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
Niger
Somalia
Mali
Burundi
Uganda
Burkina Faso
Zambia
Malawi
South Africa
India
Turkey
France
Australia
United States
United Kingdom
Russia
UAE
Brazil
China
Canada
Germany
Japan

6. And despite looming
declines in others
2016
1970
2.1 women per child=
“Replacement fertility”

7. And a sharp rise in the
use of contraception
across the developing
world
15,576,000
9,333,000
5,081,000
4,570,000
2,165,000
1,336,000
482,000
362,000
South Asia
Eastern and Southern Africa
Southeast Asia and Oceania
Western Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Central Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Eastern and Central Asia
Additional adult users of
modern contraception
methods since 2012

8. 0
100
200
300
400
500
1950 2015 2025 2050
The rise of Africa: Case Study - Nigeria
MILLION
Estimated population from 2010 to 2050 in U.S., Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Nigeria
U.S.
Nigeria
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines

9. 60 55
14 13
10 7
16 25Americas
Europe
Africa
Asia/Oceania
Proportion of
world population:
2015
2050
India
2015: 1.31bn
2050: 1.70bn
China
2015: 1.38bn
2050: 1.35bn
Indonesia
2015: 257M
2050: 322M
Japan
2015: 126M
2050: 107M
Growth in Africa

10. But the global population is getting older
30
19
29
38
42
33
40
25
41 42
47
37
Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe Oceania
Median age (years), Estimates for 2015 and 2050
2015 2050

11. 66
69
68
40
51
58
82
81
79
76
76
72
France
United Kingdom
United States
China
Brazil
Russia
Life expectancy at birth, both genders
1950 2016
As many developing countries close the life expectancy gap

12. In 1950, life expectancy in China
was 40 years.
By 2050, this will have
risen to 80 years.

13. 2. Growing
Opportunity and
Growing Inequality

14. 2015
7.3 billion
3.0 billion
2020
7.8 billion
3.8 billion
2030
8.6 billion
5.4 billion
Global population and
global middle class population

15. By 2030, 65% of the
world’s middle classes
will be living in the APAC zone

16. There are more people
living inside this circle
than outside of it
...which should be
no surprise to anyone!

17. And the Asian Middle Class
will be increasingly affluent

18. East Asia &
the Pacific
9682
Latin America
& the Caribbean
9485
Arab States
7454
Southern Asia
7145
Sub-Saharan
Africa
6452
World
8675
Objective (nearly) achieved?
Adult Literacy rates 1990-2016

19. M illio n s
8 0 0
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
10 0
0
1815 18 35 18 55 1875 18 9 5 1915 193 5 19 5 5 1975 19 9 5 20 07
Primary school
students
Secondary school
students
University
students
Driven by strongly rising student numbers
Worldwide student numbers, 1815 - 2005

20. The last 20 years: tertiary education has doubled its enrollment rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Global School Enrollment Rates
Primary Education Secondary Education Tertiary Education

21. 50%
Internet usage: the point
where the web starts to
have a real impact on
economic development

22. 52% of the global
population
has no internet
access

24. But big changes are happening quickly
By strata
75
82
73
77
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Russia
100-999k
1mln+
Moscow + StP
70%
Total Russia, 16+, cities 100k+75
90
55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
18-45 y.o.
45+
Total Russia
By age
Russia: accessed Internet in the past week, %

25. 0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless)

26. Germany
7287
United Kingdom
7288
France
6287
Brazil
5470
Turkey
6976
Nigeria
3242
China
6871
United States
7789
In some developing countries, smartphone usage is
closer to overall internet usage than in developed countries

27. 3. Megacities

28. % of the World’s population living in urban areas
30
47
56
68
1950 2000 2019 2050

29. The rise of the Mega Cities
Lima
Bogotá
Johannesburg
Luanda
Kinshasa
Lagos
Chengdu
New
megacities
by 2030
Ahmedabad
Ho Chi Minh City
Bangkok
Lahore
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Existing
megacities
(>10 million)

30. % of the population living in large urban areas:
83
%
Japan
105 million city
dwellers
82
%
United States
265 million city
dwellers
66
%
Western Europe
275 million city
dwellers

32. 50,000a day
The urban population is
increasing by...

33. 1.5 million
a month
(a city the size of Prague)

34. 18 million
a year
(the population
of Chile)

35. 34m
25m
24.9m
23.3m
19m
18.1m
17m
15.4m
13.4m
12.9m
12.4m
12m
11.7m
11m
10.5m
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Beijing
Shenzen
Wuhan
Chengdu
Chongqing
Tianjin
Hangzhou
Xi'an
Changzhou
Shantou
Nanjing
Jinan
Harbin
The OECD says there are currently 15
megacities in China
260 million live in
these 15 cities – the
population of
Indonesia

36. Shanghai 1990 –
population 13 million
Shanghai 2010 –
population 23 million

37. Shenzhen 1999 – population 6.5 million
Shenzhen 2016 – population 23.3 million

38. More than 100 Chinese cities now above 1 million people

39. 5%:the blue area is home
to as many people as the red area……

40. The cities where exercise does more harm than good
City Country Minutes cycling before
harm from exercise
outweighs good
Shijiazhuang China 60
Delhi India 60
Ludhiana India 60
Dammam Saudi Arabia 60
Kanpur India 60
Baoding China 60
Xingtai China 60
Riyadh Saudi Arabia 45
Patna India 45
Raipur India 45
Bamenda Cameroon 45
Al Jubail Saudi Arabia 45
Gwalior India 30
Zabol Iran 30
Allahabad India 30
City living: growing pains

41. Africa
Cairo 19 million in 2015  29 million in 2035
Kinshasa 12 million in 2015 27 million in 2035
Lagos 12 million in 2015  24 million in 2035
Will gradually replace Asia as
the region with highest urban
growth rate

42. But the age of fast urban growth is coming to
an end
Northeast AsiaWestern Europe Australasia
China LATAM
5968
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Middle East/
North Africa
United States
and Canada
2.2
1.0 0.8
1.3
0.6 0.4
3.1
1.0
-
0.1
2.8
1.4
1.1
1950-70
2010-15
2025-35
4.1
3.0
0.8
4.4
1.5
0.9
4.9
2.4
1.5
5.1
4.0
3.4
Urban population
growth in…
Compound annual growth rate

43. City Living
A choice rather
than a necessity?

44. Tokyo29
17
16
13
12
10
10
9
9
9
37
30
27
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
1980 2020
Tokyo
Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Rio de Janeiro
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Cairo
Delhi
Shanghai
Beijing
Dhaka
Tokyo
New York City
Mexico City
Osaka-Kobe
Sao Paulo
Los Angeles
Buenos Aires
Calcutta Mumbai
Osaka-Kobe

45. 4. Increasing
connectedness and
decreasing privacy

46. Digital/
terrestrial
TV
Mobile
phone
ads
Mobile
phone aps
Social
networking
profiles
In game
advertising
PR
Online
video
Homepage
takeovers
Search
ads
Direct
marketing
Micro
blogging
Satellite
TV
Online
radio
Digital
radio
Press
Direct
marketing
Email
marketing
Sponsorship
Analogue
radio
Augmented
reality
Viral
video
Direct
mail Digital
Billboards
Posters Online
banners
Cinema
Direct
marketing
Microsites
Now
Direct
marketing
TV/
Cinema
RadioPress
Posters/
Billboards
1980s

47. Growth in smartphone
subscriptions is expected
to near-double between
2015 and 2021
80% of this growth will
come from Asia and
Africa

48. LTE became the dominant mobile access technology at
the end of 2017

49. Commercial LTE service is now available in most
countries

50. But technological inequalities remain significant

51. 52% of the global
population
has no internet
access

52. 0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless)
Keep the “internet-less” world in mind

53. 83% of global internet
users say access
to the web should
be a “basic
human right”

54. “The level of
interrupt, the
sort of
overwhelming
rapidity of
information…
is in fact
affecting
cognition”
Eric Schmidt - Google
‘Facebook Home
could change
our brains’
Susan Greenfield -
Neuroscientist
In China say they
are ‘constantly
looking at
screens these
days’
And is it changing
our behaviour? 78%

55. “The level of
interrupt, the
sort of
overwhelming
rapidity of
information…
is in fact
affecting
cognition”
Eric Schmidt - Google
‘Facebook Home
could change
our brains’
Susan Greenfield -
Neuroscientist
Of Chinese
under 30s feel
“restless or
uneasy” if they
don’t look at
their phone for
an hour
And is it changing
our behaviour? 79%

56. 5. Healthier
and sicker

57. 45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Northern America
Global life expectancy
is rising…
2019
1975 2100
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90

58. Our new world: longer lifespans and chronic diseases
23%
17%
9% 9%
68%
74%
2015 2030
WHO Projected causes of mortality worldwide
Infectious disease Injuries Non-infectious disease

59. 92% now have access
to improved drinking
water

60. 2,000 child deaths
from diarrhoea in 2000
<1,000 today

61. 1 in 3
of the World’s population
still do not have access to
adequate sanitation facilities
But…

62. Uncertainty #1
Can our healthcare
systems cope?

63. Health spending remains very unequally distributed

64. But is growing faster than GDP in most countries

65. Governments generally carry a huge share of the financial burden

66. Which might not be sustainable in the long run

67. Uncertainty #2
Our own
lifestyle choices

68. Most of the world's
population now lives in
countries where being
overweight or obese
kills more people than
being underweight

69. 55%
54%
49%
46%
45%
44%
43%
43%
42%
41%
41%
41%
40%
40%
40%
39%
38%
38%
36%
32%
18%
20%
52%
57%
53%
65%
55%
50%
57%
66%
49%
57%
38%
54%
62%
56%
62%
52%
56%
28%
23%
32%
India
Sweden
Poland
Belgium
Turkey
S Africa
Italy
Russia
US
France
Germany
Total
Spain
GB
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Brazil
China
Japan
S Korea
And across many
countries people
understate the issue or
do not see a problem
Proportion “satisfied” with their weight
Proportion of population overweight or obese (BMI>25) in
2013

70. Example: In Turkey people think 32%
of country is “overweight or obese”

71. Turkey 32% 62%
are overweight or obese

72. Uncertainty #3
Climate change

73. Global warming has an increasingly tangible
impact

74. And most countries have made
commitments to curb it
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The climate
actions communicated in these INDCs largely determine whether the
world achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement: to hold the
increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C, to pursue
efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, and to achieve net zero emissions
in the second half of this century

75. 6. Rise of individual
choice and fracturing of
the mass market

76. 2019
1976
Endless
opportunities to
personalise…

77. Global brands’ geography is changing

79. The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing

80. The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing
Example #1:
Motoring

81. Chinese demand for EVs is soaring

82. In Europe government incentives have a significant impact on
drivers’ choices

83. The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing
Example #2:
Business models

84. A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...

85. Disruption in Business

86. 7. Rise of the individual
and decline of
social cohesion

87. The “traditional”
family structures
are changing

88. 1970
No of marriages per 1,000 population (OECD Countries)
8 2015
5
Marriage is less and less popular...

89. And unmarried people cannot divorce…

90. Single person
households are the
fastest-growing
household profile in
the period to 2030

91. Single-person Households: the fastest growing
household profile in the period to 2030

92. % Single-Person Households by Region
Asia Middle
East &
Africa
Latin
America
Australasia Eastern
Europe
North
America
Western
Europe
9 11 11
24
27 28
31

93. 29%
of all
households
162
million
The projected number of
single person households
in China in 2050

94. Cause for
optimism?
societies are not
breaking down

95. “Crime against the
person and against
property is falling in
most rich countries”
The Economist

96. Drug possession
Drug Trafficking
Homicide
Burglary
Vehicle theft
Robbery
Rape
High
income
countries
Middle
income
countries
Lower
income
countries
% change
in different
types of crime, 2003-
2013
+50%
-50%
But crime is RISING
in developing markets
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!

97. 8. Cultural
convergence and
increasing extremes

98. Most native speakers
Chinese Hindi-Urdu English Spanish
1.4b
588m 527m
Arabic
389m276m
Global languages

99. 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Grease
Superman
Jaws 2
Animal House
Kita-kitsune monogatari
Every Which Way But Loose
Heaven Can Wait
Hooper
Halloween
California Suite
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Incredibles 2
Deadpool 2
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Ready Player One
Detective Chinatown 2
Rampage
Hong hai xing dong
Pacific Rim: Uprising
English language continues to dominate
1978 & 2018

100. Views on gender are becoming more balanced worldwide
% Agree “Men should get hiring priority over Women”:
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1970 1983 1991 1996 2001 2007 2012
G8
BRICS

101. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50% Agree very much/somewhat that women should not aspire to do anything outside
of the household and should produce children and tend to their family
Women
Men
But major cultural (?) differences remain

102. 43
77
57
65
67
50
55
61
40
54
53
53
30
47
32
40
28
43
31
50
32
24
22
13
12
28
10
30
21
17
34
28
21
39
22
24
21
45
24
36
28
38
23
32
13
28
34
35
36
37
71
87
87
86
84
84
83
82
80
77
77
75
75
71
68
68
66
66
63
63
60
58
57
50
49
Total
Sweden
Belgium
France
Hungary
Germany
Spain
Great Britain
South Korea
Australia
Canada
Serbia
Poland
Italy
India
the US
Argentina
Russia
China
Turkey
Japan
South Africa
Mexico
Brazil
Peru
Abortion should be permitted
whenever a woman decides
she wants one
Abortion should be permitted
in certain circumstances, such
as if a woman has been raped
2014 2015 2016
69 72 74
91 87 93
85 85 90
90 88 90
79 77 83
85 83 84
88 86 86
85 84 86
74 77 80
77 75 77
76 74 79
- - -
65 71 73
73 74 74
61 63 70
64 68 69
64 65 66
59 65 62
63 66 56
71 68 72
67 67 65
59 56 71
51 49 58
53 52 57
- - 53
ABORTION SHOULD BE
PERMITTED
An overwhelming majority (71%)
of global respondents say that
abortion should be permitted
whenever a woman decides to
have one (43%), or in special
circumstances (28%).
A longstanding divide within the
progressive Western Hemisphere: Abortion

103. An even wider
progressive divide:
In favour of gay marriage:
Industrialized Countries
68% Latam
52%
13%Other developing countries

104. But an accelerating growth since 2000 of the number of countries
where gay marriage is legal in at least some jurisdictions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10%
of the global population now
live under a jurisdiction which
allows same-sex marriage

105. 9. Always on versus
off the grid

106. Hours worked per year
2000 2017
1,845 1,759
In OECD countries, people are starting to work fewer hours

107. ? Maybe we will
have more free
time on our hands
than we expect...

108. Robot Density Rises Globally

109. “As technology races ahead it’s leaving
some people behind. They want to work,
to offer their labor to the economy, but
their capacity as workers doesn’t match
the new environment. Technological
progress is certainly not the only factor
affecting jobs and wages - others include
globalization and demographics – but we
continue to believe that it’s a major one ”
Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, New
Introduction to The Second Machine Age, 2015

110. 50% of current work activities
are technically
automatable by adapting
currently demonstrated
technologies

111. Globally, up to 375
million workers may
need to switch
occupational
categories

112. The change in employment
by education required will
still differ according to levels
of economic development
and the global division of
labor. Blue collar workers in
advanced economies have
more to fear…

113. “Adult learning is a crucial policy instrument for the re-
training and up-skilling of workers whose jobs are being
affected by technology.”
Ljubica Nedelkoska, Glenda Quintini, OECD Social, Employment and Migration
Working Papers No. 202 - Automation, skills use and training - 2018

114. 10. Emergence of
public opinion as
revolutionary force

115. Disruption Today: my country is “off on the wrong track”

116. “The rapid growth of the precariat is
producing instabilities in society.
It is a dangerous class because it is
internally divided, leading to the
villainisation of migrants and other
vulnerable groups.
And its members may be
susceptible to the siren calls of
political extremism”

117. The rise of
democracy
makes
political
discontent
and
populism
more vocal
and audible

118. But just over
one half of
world
population lives
under a
democratic
regime

119. Colombia
South Africa
Peru
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
Malaysia
Turkey
Mexico
Thailand
India
Romania
Spain
Canada
Italy
Belgium
Russia
France
Germany
China
United States
Netherlands
Poland
Sweden
Serbia
Australia
Japan
South Korea
Great Britain
Hungary
Denmark
New Zealand
Montenegro
Switzerland
Hong Kong
Singapore
Saudi Arabia
Country
Avg. guess
(28)
Actual
(12)
34 0.3
38 7
30 0.3
30 0.4
33 5
31 3
36 9
32 6
26 1
29 5
24 0.4
23 1
31 10
40 21
28 10
29 11
25 8
27 12
30 15
14 0.1
29 15
26 12
16 2
30 18
21 9
41 29
14 2
14 2
24 13
15 5
22 12
32 23
18 11
35 30
37 39
41 46
27 37
34
31
30
30
28
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
18
18
17
15
15
14
14
14
14
12
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
9
7
5
-2
-5
-10
too hightoo low % point diff. between avg. guess & actual
Populism thrives
on an almost
general
overestimation
of the
proportion of
immigrants in
the local
population

120. 1
Mega trends
…that are (re) shaping the world

121. Changing our
behaviour?
Ageing
people?
Necessity
not choice?
New illnesses,
tired planet?
The left
behind?
Work-life balance
in the age of
automation?
Will we enjoy
the ride?
More
tension?
Where are
we heading?
How safe will
we feel?