Pomelo Fashion presents at 2014 Citibank ASEAN stars of the next decade! Includes, e-commerce growth trends in south east asia and sectors most likely to benefit from emerging mobile and social media trends.
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Intro to E-commerce in South East Asia - Citibank
1. Market perspective on E-commerce Trends in South East Asia
Citibank Research Conference
www.pomelofashion.com
2. South East Asia (‘SEA’) is a large unified market
with increasingly growing spending power
Though the 3rd largest population center in the world, minimal focus on
technology sector until now has created a unique greenfield opportunity
1347
Population by Region (M)
1210
617
504
314
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
China India South
East Asia
EU US
60.8
17
9.6 9.1
4.8 4.3 3.7
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
GDP per Capita PPP basis (K of USD)
Population(M): 5 29 67 247 97 89
• SEA has 2x the population of the US
• SEA is evolving into one addressable
market with ASEAN free trade zone in
2015
• Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand
have higher GDP per capita than
China
• Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam
are catching up quickly
Sources: World Bank
3. Rapidly accelerating internet and smart phone
penetration driving this trend
A step-change increase in internet access is expected over the next 5
years
SEA Internet Users (M)
166
360
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2020E
3.4
SEA smartphone sales (M Units)
6
11
20
28
36
43
51
59
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Penetration: 25% 62%
• Approx. 200M additional internet users gaining access this decade
Sources: “We are social”, Accenture; Euromonitor 2013
4. Additionally, SEA is the social media capital of
the world
Social networks are powerful and expansive, core to the internet adoption
revolution
Top Facebook Cities in 2013
# City Country Facebook
• Bangkok and Jakarta are #1 and #2 for
Facebook users in the world
Sources
(1) Social Bakers; Instagram
Users
Users/Popu
lation
1 Bangkok Thailand 8,682,940 104%
2 Jakarta Indonesia 7,434,580 34%
3 Istanbul Turkey 7,066,700 63%
4 London UK 6,139,180 74%
5 Bogota Colombia 6,112,120 82%
6 Sao Paulo Brazil 5,718,220 30%
7 Mexico City Mexico 4,294,820 23%
8 Santiago Chile 4,129,700 73%
9 Mumbai India 3,700,460 19%
10 Buenos Aires Argentina 3,533,840 29%
Most Instagram’ed Locations in 2013
# Location City
1 Siam Paragon Bangkok
2 Times Square New York
3 Disney Land California
4 Bellagio Fountains Las Vegas
5 Disney World Florida
6 Staples Center Los Angeles
7 Central Park New York
8 Dodger Stadium Los Angeles
9 Bangkok International
Airport
• Bangkok has 2 of the most Instagram’ed
locations in the world
Bangkok
10 The High Line New York
“Social networking is what Southeast Asian consumers everywhere do during their online
leisure time” – Accenture, Surfing Southeast Asia’s Powerful Digital Wave
5. E-commerce penetration is relatively low but
ramping up quickly
Internet access, smart phone availability, hyper connectivity through
social media driving rapid rise in E-commerce
TH, PH, & ID - Online Retail Sales Forecast
(B USD)
46%
CAGR
1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.5
7.1
9.2
13.5
18.7
23.5
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
E-commerce as % of Total Retail Sales (2014)
16.3
11.7
10.4
8.2 7.9
7.2
1-2%
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Korea USA Japan Australia Global China SEA
• SEA’s total e-commerce market size is expected to reach $24B USD by 2015
• If E-commerce represents 7% of retail sales, the market size in TH, PH, and ID alone would be
$50-100B USD
Sources: ICD Research; JP Morgan E-commerce Report
6. China an example of the speed at which
E-commerce penetrates a market
18
39
70
127
199
283
369
461
1.1%
2.0%
2.9%
4.3%
6.0%
7.4%
8.5%
9.3%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
As % of China’s retail sales
Online Shopping transaction Value (US$bn)
1. Surging domestic
consumption
2. Low availability of products
outside major city centers
3. Rapid increase in internet
penetration
4. Rapid development of
delivery and logistics
infrastructure
5. Major capital investment in
E-commerce sites
The same drivers that drove 10x growth in China’s E-commerce market
over last 5 years to drive 5x E-commerce growth in SEA
Sources: Morgan Stanley
Key Drivers of
Chinese E-commerce
SEA?
Current SEA
E-commerce
penetration
rate
7. Rocket Internet was 1st mover helping drive initial
wave of e-commerce adoption
Rocket Internet has 2 major e-commerce plays in the region with backing
from major European and American investors
Investment Details Investors
Started in Q1 2012
Regional adaptation of Amazon.com
Price driven discount retailer of all vertical
categories
Over $400M USD of raised capital
Started in Q4 2011
Regional adaptation of Zappos.com; viewed as
price-driven discounter due to aggressive growth
targets
Shoes and apparel retailer
Over $200M USD of raised capital
Sources: Ardent Capital
8. Investors now funding more targeted vertical
plays as reach of E-commerce expands
Investors seizing opportunity to scale up cheaply and be #1 in a specific
vertical, as E-commerce seen as certainty in SEA
Company Focus Most Recent Round Investors
Reebonz Regional luxury flash sale
site
$40M (2014)
Luxola Regional online beauty site $10M (2014)
Redmart Singapore online grocery
site
$23M (2014) Eduardo Saverin, Garena,
Softbank Ventures
A-commerce Regional E-commerce
logistics & support service
provider
$3.1M (2013)
POMELO Regional online fast fashion UNDISCLOSED
Sources: TechinAsia, Techcrunch, E27.com
9. Fashion is the single largest retail category in
SEA and has the highest average retail GM
Fashion and Beauty account for
50% of non-consumable retail sales
12%
35.7
SEA Retail Sales 2013 (In B USD)
11%
33.8
30
10% 13.4
4%
10.3
3%
7.4
2%
177
57%
Fashion
Home & Living
Electronics
Beauty & Pers. Care
Home Appliances
Consumer Health
Kids & Toys
Other (Food, Travel, etc)
Fashion typically has highest retail
gross margins
53
49 49
40
34
31
28 28 27
24 24
75
50
25
0
US Gross Margins by Retail Category 2010
(%)
Sources: Euromonitor; Annual Retail Trade Survey 2010
10. Fashion has leading share of online spending in
the US and China
In more developed markets Fashion and Beauty consistently rank as top
E-commerce categories
57
46
41
35
29 27 25 23 22 20
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Best sold items in China over Internet (% of
shoppers)
56
49
24
20 19
12
9 8
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
US Ecommerce Sales by Category – 2013 (B
USD)
Sources: I Research; eMarketer
11. SEA fashion E-commerce to reach 6 to 14B USD
by 2018
Fashion E-commerce market size in SEA can be calculated by taking a
top down approach to the forecast
2018 Fashion
and Beauty
Retail Sales:
$70-80B USD
• Assumes 10%
CAGR from
2013-2018
x
Sources: “We are social”, Accenture; Euromonitor 2013
2018 Fashion
and Beauty E-commerce
sales:
$6-9B USD
Expected E-commerce
share of retail
sales:
7-10%
=
• Assumes E-commerce
penetration in line
with China in 2013
• 10% market share
implies $600-900M
USD revenue
• 1% market share
implies $60-90M
USD revenue
12. Global fashion E-commerce valuations higher for own-brand
due to product differentiation and higher margins
(In M USD)
Merchandizing Company Focus Revenue
@
Investment
EV EV /
Revenue
Comment
Own-brand +
curated 3rd party
Asos Fast Fashion with own-brand
#1 online fashion site in UK
1,240 6,800 5.5x
4-6x valuation
at scale
Own-brand VANCL Own-brand Fast Fashion
#1 online fashion site in China
800 3,000 4.0x
Own-brand +
curated 3rd party
Zulily Mom Fashion & Babies Flash
Sales
500 2,600 5.2x
Own-brand Bonobos Men’s own-brand fashion
#1 online men’s fashion site in
US
80 800 10x
8-10x valuation
during growth
phase
Own-brand +
curated 3rd party
Nastygal Women’s LA Street Fashion 100 800 8.0x
Own-brand Warby
Parker
Own-brand Eyewear
#1 online eyewear site in US
50 500 10.0x
Resell 3rd-party
brands
Zalando Broadline shoes & apparel 1,800 3,900 2.2x 1-2x valuation
regardless of
size due to
threat of
competition
and lack of
differentiation
Resell 3rd-party
brands
Zappos Broadline shoes & apparel 1,000 (‘09) 1,000
(‘09)
1.0x
Resell 3rd-party
brands
Myntra Broadline shoes & apparel 150 300 1.7x
Sources: Techcrunch, Google Finance, FT.com, Dailypando, Bloomberg
13. Thank you!
For more information please contact:
David Jou at david@pomelofashion.com