1. 1
韋葆蘭
香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
SHAPING GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKET
影响全球消费市场15大零售高科技趋势
零售
业的
未来

2. 2
PRODUCTS & MARKETS
1. Everything is Smart
全面智能化
产品和市场

3. 3
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
• Smart Clothing 智能服装
• Smart Homes 智能家居
• Smart Cars 智能汽车

4. 4

5. 5
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
• Connected Kids 联网儿童
• Connected Pets 联网宠物
• Smart Senior Home Care
智能家居老人护理
• Smart Beauty 智能美容

6. 6
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
市场规模
Market Size
(亿美元,Billions USD)
复合年增长率
CAGR
智能家居老人护理 Senior Home Care 4000 6.3%
智能美容 Smart Beauty 2480 3.4%
智能汽车 Smart Cars 800 8.5%
联网儿童 Connected Kids 640 10%
智能家居 Smart Homes 580 18%
联网宠物 Connected Pets 60 10%
智能服装 Smart Clothing 28 100%+

7. 7
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping
移动应用购物远超浏览器购物

8. 8
2. Mobile Apps Bury the Browser In Shopping
移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
The browser is dead …
浏览器时代已经殆尽…
88% 82%
12% 18%
Smartphone Tablet
Mobile App vs. Browser Split
App Browser
R.I.P.
BROWSER
安息吧,浏览器
1999-­‐2014
… long live app nation!
…移动应用万岁
智能手机 平板电脑
应用
浏览器
移动应用与浏览器使用比例

9. 9
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道

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• What is Click & Collect 什么是点击提货
• More than two-thirds of UK shoppers used Click & Collect services in 2014
2014年超过三分之二的英国消费者使用过点击提货服务
Walmart
Drive-­‐Through
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道

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3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
• Amazon launched its lockers in Sept. 2011
亚马逊在2011年9月份推出储物柜服务
• Only 17% of US consumers used Click & Collect in 2013
2013年只有17%的美国消费者使用点击提货服务
• Walmart started testing a drive-through grocery pick-up service in Oct. 2014
沃尔玛在2014年10月开始测试免下车食品杂货提货服务
Walmart
Drive-­‐Through
Walmart
Drive-­‐Through
沃尔玛免下车服务

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人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象

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4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
线下展厅网络展厅
店内浏览
网上购买店内购买
网上浏览

14. 14
4
8
8
10
12
13
16
17
22
25
28
9
18
20
18
29
25
30
26
34
35
40
消费电子
家用电器
衣服和鞋类
书籍，音乐，电影和视频游戏
食品杂货
家具和家居用品
自制/家居装饰
健康和美容
珠宝首饰/手表
体育设备/户外
玩具
2014 2013来源：普华永道，美国零售调查，2015年2月
4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
• Webrooming, or researching online
and then buying in a store, has
become the norm and more common
than showrooming
网络展厅(在线研究,店内购买)已经变得
比线下展厅普遍
%
of
Shoppers
Not
Researching
Online
Before
Buying
40
35
34
26
30
25
29
18
20
18
9
28
25
22
17
16
13
12
10
8
8
4
Toys
Sporting Goods
Jewelry/Watches
Health & Beauty
DIY/Home Improvement
Furniture/Home Goods
Grocery
Books, Music & Movies
Clothing and Footwear
Household Appliances
Consumer Electronics 2014 2013
Source:
PwC
US
Retail
Survey,
February
2015
%的购物者在购物前没有进行在线研究
电子产品

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4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
Why Shoppers Webroom? 为什么购物者会通过网络展厅方式购物？
• Don’t want to pay for shipping 不想支付运费 (47%)
• Don’t want to wait for delivery不想等待送货(23%)
• Like to touch and feel a product before they buy
他们购买之前, 喜欢手触商品 (46%)
• Like to ask store to match better prices found online
喜欢要求店家匹配他们在网上发现的更优惠的价格 (36%)
• Like the option to return to store if needed喜欢能去商店退货 (37%)

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人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

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5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
• Consumers love the convenience and dependability of the services
消费者喜欢便捷和可信赖的服务
• Retailers love subscription models as a source of recurring revenue
零售商希望将(网络)订购模式作为循环性的收入来源

18. 18
选择一个计划
低至23美元
选择男性、女性或中性
Pijon选择内容
零售价为30-60美元
美味和健康的零食、健康和
美容用品、家庭必需品和有
趣的礼物
每月交付不同
产品的盒子！
看看大家在说什么！
5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案

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零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores
纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店

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6. Ecommerce Pure Plays Open Brick-and-Mortar Stores
纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
• Excluding Amazon, most online pure-plays hit a $1
billion revenue ceiling
除亚马逊之外，大部分纯粹的线上品牌公司都一般在10亿
美元时达到营收上限
• Establishing a brick-and-mortar presence aids in
brand building and growing consumer awareness
设立实体店有助于推广品牌和提高消费者认知
• Easier to get VC funding with technology connection
in the apparel/retail business model
在服装/零售商业模式中结合高技术更容易获得风险投资
• More in 2015 2015年这一趋势会继续

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零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
线上食品百货是新的增长领域

22. 22
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
线上食品百货是新的增长领域
• Global Grocery Market: $4 Trillion 全球食品杂货市场:4万亿美元
• U.S. Grocery Market: $600B 美国食品杂货市场:6000亿美元
• Percent Online 在线销售比例: 1.2%
• Approx. 12% of Internet users have bought grocery items online
大约12%的互联网用户曾经在线购买过食品杂货
• 主要品牌
– Fresh Direct
– Google Express
– Instacart

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零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth
“点击支付”必将实现快速增长

24. 24
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised for Dramatic Growth
“点击支付”必将实现快速增长
$3,737
$6,815
$10,451
$16,240
$23,472
$34,160
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
CAGR
=
50%
复合年增长率
US
Contactless
Mobile
Payment
Market($
Millions)
美国非接触式移动支付市场（百万美元）
%
of
All
Mobile
Payments
7%
10%
13%
16%
20%
24%
Source: Forrester Research, October 2014
在所有移动
支付中所占
的百分率
来源：弗雷斯特研究公司，2014年10月

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零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise
零售商的技术支出在不断增加

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9. Retailer Tech Spending On the Rise
零售商的技术支出在不断增加
• Capex was approximately 3.6% of sales in 2013
资本支出大约占到2013年销售额的3.6%
• We estimate that this increased to 4% in 2014
预计这一比例会在2014年增加到4%
• Technology capex:
技术资本支出：
– Walmart: 30% of capex in 2013; Spending $1.2-$1.5B on
ecommerce in FY2016 (= 9-13% of total)
沃尔玛：2013年占到30%的资本支出；2016财年电子商务支
出为12-15亿美元（占全部支出的9-13%）
– Nordstrom: “Technology investments account for more
than 30% of our plan, up from roughly 20% historically”
诺德斯特龙：“技术投资占到计划投资的30%以上，超过以
往最高的20%左右”
– Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards
interconnected retail and technology”
家得宝: “联网零售和技术方面的投资比例在不断增加”
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
JCPenneyNordstrom Target TJ Maxx Kohl's Macy's Walmart Home
Depot
CVS Sears
Capex/Sales Average
Capex/Sales
for
Selected
Retailers
所选零售商的资本支出/销售额
Average
=
3.6%
平均值
资本支出/销售额
平均值

27. 27
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台

28. 28
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台
• Internet now ruled by pictures and videos
互联网上现在充斥着图片和视频
• Consistent but slowing growth in social media
usage expected worldwide over the next 5 years
未来五年社交网络使用量会出现持续但缓慢的增长
• Most of the growth in Asia
大部分的增长来自亚洲
• Growth in the number of users is decelerating
用户增长率趋缓
• Many social media experiences now on a
mobile phone
许多人通过智能手机访问社交网络
1.22
1.47
1.73
1.97
2.18
2.37
2.55
23.7%
20.4%
18.0%
13.4%
10.8%
8.9%
7.5%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Social
Network
Users
Worldwide
(Bil.)
全球社交网络用户
Social
Network
Users
Change
%
Source: eMarketer, April 2013
Note: Internet users using a social networking site at least once a month
来源：电子营销者，2014年4月
社交网络用户全球 增长率

29. 29
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台
移动消息
估测计量

30. 30
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划

31. 31
11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
• What is a beacon? 什么是信标？
• The best solution for improving
the in-store retail experience
信标是改善店内购物体验的最佳解决方案

32. 32

33. 33
11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
• 2016 is expected to be the Year of The Beacon
预计2016年将成为信标年
• US installed base expands rapidly, but consumer
response is key to further penetration
美国信标安装量在快速增加,不过顾客反应是进一步
渗透的关键
$4.1
$44.4
2015 2016
Beacon-Influenced In-Store Retail Sales
($ Billion)
信标影响的店内零售销售额 (10亿美元)
Source: Bi Intelligence, Feb. 9, 2015

34. 34
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
微型定位提高店内体验

35. 35
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
微型定位提高店内体验
They know where you are! 通过信标可以获知你的位置！

36. 36

37. 37
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
游戏化刺激新的消费行为

38. 38
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
游戏化刺激新的消费行为
• Gamification is the use of elements from
computer and video games in real-world
or other activities
游戏化是指在真实世界或其他活动中使用计
算机和视频游戏元素
• These elements stimulate our
psychological needs for desire,
incentive, challenge, achievement and
rewards, feedback, and mastery
这些元素模拟我们的各种心理需求：
渴望、刺激、挑战、成就感等等

39. 39
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model
Uber实现分享经济模式

40. 40
14. Uberfication Enbodys The Sharing Economy Model
Uber实现分享经济模式
• Uber is the most visible player (and driver)
of the “sharing economy”
Uber是“分享经济”最著名的参与者
和推动者)
• Changing consumer mindsets will
challenge retailers
改变消费者的思维观念会对零售商提出新挑战
• Opportunities for retailers: How much is
convenience worth?
零售商的机遇：便捷性到底有多少价值？

41. 41
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资

42. 42
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
• Retailers need to spend smarter, not
necessarily more on cybersecurity
在网络安全方面，零售商需要作出更加明智
的支出，但是支出量不一定会增加
• Holistic, enterprise-wide cyber-risk
detection and prevention are critical
first steps
首先应当实施覆盖整个企业的整体性网络风
险监测和预防措施
• Human error has played a major role
in the recent cyber-attacks
在最近的网络攻击中，人为错误占主要因素

43. 43
1. Everything is Smart
2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming
5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives
6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth
9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
15大零售高科技趋势

44. 44
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
15大零售高科技趋势
1.全面智能化
2.移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
3.网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
4.网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
5.(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
6.纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
7.线上食品百货是新的增长领域
8.“点击支付”必将实现快速增长
9.零售商的技术支出在不断增加
10.社交媒体成为新的营销平台
11.信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
12.微型定位提高店内体验
13.游戏化刺激新的消费行为
14.Uber实现分享经济模式
15.网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资

45. 45
韋葆蘭
香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
謝謝
THANK YOU